Does Oats know something!

[SASKFARMER3]

Oats up last night every other thing down. USDA report out Friday but rain didn't hit Argentina and Australia is still wet.

[RedRiverMB]

Oats is still very low for what inventory there is.
Problem is the mills have stock into Jan and are trying
very hard to pick off contracts as they expand their
inventory. Oats will at some point break out, but the
USD is also hurting CDN prices, we need the CDN
dollar down to 90, that would be a good start.

[charliep]

Wouldn't hold my breath on a 90 cent loonie. For discussion, I think
there is a higher probability of $1.10 loonie than a 90 cent one.

Oats will be interesting going ahead. Lots of questions from farmers.

Off topic but marketing to me is as much of an art as a science - there
are no precise answers in a dynamic world. Do you find the ying and
yang of marketing/price volatility fun or is it one of the things you
don't like about farming? Not being negative. Just an observation that
every farm manager will have a different answer.

Sorry for taking off topic but always a thought when someone starts a
thread like this. I suspect marketing oats will be an art,

[SASKFARMER3]

I love the marketing aspect of farm. Its fun to see how some Bs can move the market.
Im betting on 1.10 dollar next year not 90.
Acreage will be intersting especially in canada Wall to wall yellow.
Take blackberry with you on holidays is excellent advise thanks larry.

[Burbert]

Lying, cheating open oat market, will try to cheat yous each and every time. Just like the forage guys/gals. No regulations, lets truly screw the Comedian Oat Farmer each and every year, day in and day out!! Whatchaya think? Am I right er am I right?

[bucket]

I don't grow oats but its an interesting commodity.

The EU farmers don't grow it and neither do US farmers as there is either A) No subsidy on it or B) Better crops to grow.

Right now the world is short oats. The canadian crop has been short for 2 years in a row.

Also to remember, its a short season crop that can be planted late and still come out with loads of production, which is what the millers count on. Didn't happen this year so the price when the bins at the millers get low should start to move prices and quickly.

You can't substitute corn for oats when you are milling them for breakfast cereals either. High quality oats will move higher to around 5-6 bucks.

Then everyone will want to grow them again and poof there goes the price, unless everything else has a profitable price attached to it. And canola, flax, peas and lentils are moving into winter with rallying prices.

Still a good bet on oats for next year if its a little wet and a guy can wait to seed until the wild oats are killed.

[charliep]

Never ask an economist about numbers cause we love to provide them.

will use 2009/10 oat numbers.

World oat trade - 2.1 MMT in 2009/10.

Largest exporter: Canada - 1.55 MMT.

Largest importer: US - 1.6 MMT.

World production - 24 MMT. largest producer: EU - 8.5 MMT. 2nd: Russia - 5.4 MMT. 3rd: Canada - 2.9 MMT.

World production 2010/11 (Ocotober USDA - new numbers Friday) - 20 MMT. You can dig to put the numbers the current crop year.

[URL="http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/2010/10-10/graintoc.asp"]USDA[/URL]

[bucket]

charliep

How do those numbers compare to a few years ago in the EU in particular?

I was under the impression that the EU had reduced their production of oats and only the Scandavians were growing oats?

Where do you think most of the Canadian oats export to? Any trade challenges?

Interesting?

[charliep]

No time right now to do the research (getting ready for a couple of presentations) but I will give you access to a very powerfull database. USDA has a really good source of historical numbers (takes a little time to figure out how to do).

[URL="http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx"]USDA PSD database[/URL]

[RedRiverMB]

I agree the dollar is leaning to maybe over 1.00, but in
my history it seems what we expect to happen, does
not. The US, EU and china can all change the game
really quickly and Canadians are simply along for the
ride, trying to pick off deals. It does look good that
the US for this winter can only look at Canada for oats
as the rest of the world is low also.

[bucket]

thanks charliep

Looking at the numbers, it indicates the EU has little excess of oats to be a major exporter.

Still may be a strong crop for 2011.

[BTOfarmall]

Burpski - Yer' wrongski. Its not what you knowski, its who you knowski. Just got to know where to sellski. Think outside the boxski.

[Burbert]

Sooooooski, if'n we all grow oats, we'll get richski! Is that rigtski, or bulls--tski?

[furrowtickler]

May not get rich, but will make an awful lot more than any board grains.

[bucket]

Well burbert, lets see.

If a contract price comes out in feb/mar for new crop oats at 3.50 per bushel and you sign a contract to deliver it all at harvest, well then, yes, you would probably be in the money.

If you wait until harvest and everyone has oats for sale then you might not be as lucky.

But you seem like the kind of guy that doesn't want to do better than his neighbor or want his neighbor to do better than you, so you tell us, how will it work out for you.