This could be China talking the market down...

[LWeber]

This was emailed to me today as a cut/paste; therefore, I cannot verify the authenticity:

From todays CWB market news

The Australian situation has basically run its course. The world now knows that quality milling wheat is going to be in short supply while there will be a relatively large feed-wheat allocation available for offshore export. The futures market has adjusted and, as with most weather-market situations, the period immediately following the exuberant run-up is one of reflection and regret. It appears that buyer's remorse has kicked in and the market will take it down a notch while it waits for a directional cue.
_____________________________________

1) Can anyone verify that the CWB sent it out?

2) Is this market sensitive to farmer's bottom line?

3) Is this market power?
___________________________________

For 79 million in admin costs, maybe its time to get some real weather people on board.

Meteorologists have been talking about the potential wreck in AUS during harvest since July.

You know July - when Ritz and the CWB had their photo op with the Chinese before the price took off.

This is not Rhodes Scholar material:

La Nina - AUS wet.
El Nino - AUS dry.

And today there is a cyclone entering AUS and moving east. The probability of intense rain again this weekend is high. But wtf do I know...

Good god you guys, if the Riders treated you like that, someone would be dumping shit on 45 - 60 driveways... and that is just a game.

The problem is that you get treated like a game... what is worse - its with your own fn money.

25 years ago CWB Commissioners were afraid to pick up a food tab because it was farmers money - including Esmund Jarvis. Times have changed. Now the entity is controlled by western Canadian farmers - rrrright.

Buyers remorse - If you are reading between the lines for the PRO tomorrow - how about seller's remorse.

Thanks for letting me spew. I feel better now.

[wd9]

Spew any time LW.

[bucket]

weber

Here is some more of it:

""General comments

The Australian situation has basically run its course. The world now knows that quality milling wheat is going to be in short supply while there will be a relatively large feed-wheat allocation available for offshore export. The futures market has adjusted and, as with most weather-market situations, the period immediately following the exuberant run-up is one of reflection and regret. It appears that buyer's remorse has kicked in and the market will take it down a notch while it waits for a directional cue.

The Christmas holiday season is typically characterized by thinner futures trade. Reduced volume and end-of-the-season reconciliations by index funds and other market participants can send the market in several directions that may not have a direct correlation with fundamentals. While the world has adjusted to the Australian quality demise and begun the process of looking forward, there are several warning signs that 2011-12 may indeed feature a tighter overall world wheat supply-and-demand balance.

Milling wheat stocks will be under pressure throughout the remainder of the 2010-11 marketing year. The fact that several areas experienced shorter proportional milling-wheat quality harvests has left the world with little choice but to shop at the U.S. for higher quality spring- and winter-milling wheat. Prices usually achieve some upward momentum when the world buys American. Until new crop production arrives on line, the world will remain relatively bereft of milling wheat.

One immediate question is, will the additional world feed-wheat supply both weaken feed-grain prices and dampen offshore corn-import demand? Put another way, there remains little doubt that the U.S. corn supply-and-demand balance is tight, but will the additional feed-wheat supplies relinquish the burden that U.S. corn must bear in the world feed-grain trade matrix? Domestic rationing has not yet begun and market signals remain that corn is good value for feeders and ethanol plants. Thus, the U.S. corn export pace over the next two months is going to determine whether or not the U.S. corn supply-and-demand balance requires intense rationing.

Considerable market attention will be paid towards South American summer production (harvest in March) of corn and soybeans. The presence of a strong La Nina has intensified dryness concerns in the market, particularly with regards to Argentine corn potential. It is far too early to write off the crop, but reduced production would lend support to the U.S. corn-soybean acreage battle set to begin in late February. The other outstanding issue is whether China emerges as a significant corn importer. There are still many voices that suggest the Chinese will make significant corn purchases before the marketing year ends. Obviously, any such action would be bullish the current market. We caution about building a premium into the market based on the speculative conclusion that China is certain to buy corn.

Macro-economics have been generally supportive over the last week. Looking forward it is difficult to discern a clear directional pull to the broader economic market. Uncertainty and volatility will continue to lurk for the foreseeable future while certain countries seek stability and other seek inflation containment.

Neil Townsend
CWB Market Analyst"""


It means they gave our crop away even with that weather department and market analysts and experts in every field of agriculture.

Pure and I mean pure ****ing incompetence.

[LWeber]

"There are still many voices that suggest the Chinese will make significant corn purchases before the marketing year ends."
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The CWB established a permanent office in Beijing in 1994.
_____________________________________

Western Canadian farmers pay for an office in China that should deliver better information than:

"many voices that suggest"


16 years - WTF do they do there?

[parsley]

An anser to your question:

The CWB representatives tour around China in the cars the Designated Area farmers buy for the CWB Beijing representatives.

Maybe a hep way to put it, since there are a lot of young farmers online , would be:

The Wheat Board is the pimp, and the farmers are their *******.

Now, get to work.

Pars

[kuzma]

Number 1 vision and goal for CWB, underpromise and overdeliver. Are we really surprised to hear this from them. The greatest achievment that the board has provided was generations of marketing illiterates.
Board supporters, google Monopsony.

[hobbyfrmr]

Larry, You are allowed to spew. Nice Riders analogy, very accurate. A team loses a game and people take the time and effort to dump cowshit on the players doorstep. A mandatory marketing board spends millions of farm earned dollars to pawn off the grain without having to prove accountability and western canada farmers vote that its ok. That is really how stupid/unsophistocated western farmers are. Portage and Main employees are enjoying a good "lifestyle" and regard their farmer "bosses" with contempt and disdain. We get what we deserve. There was one good suggestion from another thread about hiring lawyers (Tony Merchant's name was dropped) and lobbyists. That would at least reflect a slight bit of tact and/or sophistication. That Rider manure doorstep thing really showed all of Canada the Sask mentality. I think the culprits also got the wrong address, which only reinforces the above argument. Its funny even now, every game, I bring that up, and everybody tries to side step that fact. Usually when a kicker misses a field goal attempt I say "that guys neighbors are going to get the manure treatment tonight" Wow Larry, you really triggered something with me on that Rider analogy.

[TOM4CWB]

LARRY;

THERE YOU GO TALKING ESKIMO...

AGAIN!!!

YOU SHOULD MANAGE THOSE WANDERING EYES...

READING WORDS NEVER MEANT FOR THE SANE;

aNYONE WHO BUYS OUR GRAIN SHOULD REALISE;

NOT ALL THE SLAVES ARE AS STUPID AS FLIES!!!

[TOM4CWB]

WD9,

Could we say... claim we were deceived by CWB enticements and propaganda that were false about the 'single desk' pooled monopoly?!!!

Then,

Tie this into unfair election interference for taking the side of 'single desk' monopoly Director Candidates???

Tony Merchant... What do you think?

Good enough topic for an animated Video... don't you think SF3?

[grassfarmer]

That would require admitting that you "do not have the cognitive skills and the developmental maturity to understand" wouldn't it?

[stubblejumper]

larry wtf do you do here

[LWeber]

If 423 cared half as much about your bottom line as I did, Stubble, you would be in Arizona right now with all the borg grains that you grow. Hell you would have retired in 2007/08.

If you want a marketing partner, then make them the best in the world - not the laughing stock of the world.

Russia has better marketing intel - so does the UKR and our forefathers left Europe for a better opportunity for their children and future generations -not to have their wealth distributed back to rest of the world.

See the dichotomy?

You pay 79 milliion dollars for what?

Spend a day reading what I do and you wouldn't have any valves left in your heart, or you can bury your head in the sand and go back to lala land.

After 16 years and how many of your dollars in Beijing... you should expect a line that begins like this....

Our staff in Beijing have estimated that China will import XXXXXXX tonnes of corn for 2010/11.

You have been drinking the koolaid for so long you don't even question anything they say. When I get to lecture at the University, I always relay to the students that they need to question everything including what I say and their prof. Evolution of the young doesnt occur by doing the same thing your Dad did.

Thats the long answer to your question...and about 10 minutes more time than you actually deserve.

The short answer is not printable.

[bucket]

Better yet,it would be nice for the cwb's bejing office to say the chinese are out of wheat which is why they are buying 500,000 tonnes of wheat from us.

Further to that, we have noticed that their crop does not look as good as they saying.

Instead, we pay someone to kiss their ass and give our grain away.

Interestingly, if the chinese buy canadian grain and then export their own shitty grain for a higher price, does anybody think maybe we are getting the short end of the stick????

[TOM4CWB]

Grassfarmer,

Is there any question after the way the majority of 'designated area' grain growers... voted... in recent CWB elections?

The CWB pools are simply false promises that force well meaning grain growing folks into losses in the billions... because of deceptive and fraudulent marketing tactics!

The CWB refuses to follow its own Code of COnduct and respect grain growers... The CWB spend our grain growers money to deceive us and promote/promise a scheme that fails year after year. THe CWB scheme cannot work because its design is to do the opposite of its stated purpose.

So Grassy... what would you admit to... being part of the cover up... so we can sue you too... because you want cheap livestock feed???

[grassfarmer]

Not admitting to anything Tom, cos i'm not really involved. I'm happy to see the cwb continue as I think it's the best chance you grain folks have of getting better prices - I'm not a grain feeder anyway I prefer grass and forage.

Instead of pointing fingers at people that are not involved maybe you anti-board types should get your heads together before the next election and decide whether you are going to support your candidates, vote for change, or boycott the vote. Splitting your potential anti cwb vote because you couldn't decide which policy to follow probably cost you the election if anti-cwb sentiment is as strong as you claim it is.