Re flooding in Australia

[redbaron]

Question for malleefarmer or others who know: I have a friend working with custom harvesters in the flooded areas. Is telling me a lot of unharvested acres are under water. The area effected is usually dry this time of the year and a lot of grain is stored in piles on the ground. More so this year because of poor quality. He has seen numerous piles standing in water. Any idea how widespread this issue is and how much grain is grown in the area affected by the flooding. Sounds like insult to injury is being added to their harvest from hell.

[lnewman]

My question even if the crop was taken off in good
shape (dry) How well does it store in the high humidity
and heat?

[malleefarmer]

redbaron my neck of the woods weve had no real rain since dec 15 most was 7/8 of december. So ive been harvesting unimpeded since.But my quality is has looked up a tad in last 3 days, were now about 60 feed 1 wheat 40 gp1 wheat which is lowest milling quality.
Annoying though many loads are graded 5% sprouted you only need 4.9% and below sprouted to make milling grade a extra $ 75 to 140 per tonne.

Once the sprouting reaches a certain % it then goes feed 1 wheat. Today it is 8% shot for feed 3 days ago it was 12% shot before you get feed, depends on the stcked average of the silo or elevator as you guys call it. You ring each morning to find out limits and of course if one silo is accepting wheat at 8% shot then feed and another is 12% shot befor edown grade its a no brainer deliver to the 12% site.

Sound complicated its not, over the years farmers accuse marketers of blending wheat to suit there requirements and make a shit load of money on the way, well thats exactly what there doing with the stcked averages but its to the farmers benifit.

[cottonpicken]

The agricultural renaissance is here.

[cottonpicken]

Tom,has anyone at dtn commented on trading
volumes recently?

[burnt]

Sounds like your marketers went to the same school as ours.

There is a lot to be said for home-based storage and do the blending before it leaves the yard, if one has that option.

Grading is always toughest right at harvest, without fail. A lot of money is lost in at-harvest delivery.

[jjfarmer]

Malle, We did some travelling, Australia,
East Side beginning of Dec. Our mission
was to learn about CTF. Very nice country
and had an exellent trip. It had just
started getting wet when we were there.
Saw some fusarium in wheat grown after
sorghum.(not a good rotation on a wet
year). What area (generally) is your farm
and are you doing CTF?

[burnt]

This article gives a bit more info on how much the flooding is affecting farming area.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/Australian floods disaster biblical proportions official/4052002/story.html

[wmoebis]

Mallee, Glad to hear you are getting your crop off.

Couple questions.

Is there a price dif when your silo is accepting 8% verses 12%

Are you assessed on each load at delivery or do you make DEALS on you whole production? Then deliver as they can handle your % of damage.

Do you preform your own assessment of damage or take what they company says it is? Or do you have 3rd party assessment?

[redbaron]

Thanks burnt. Very good article. First time I have read how it is effecting everything from mining to farming and exports.

[agstar77]

Fear of the unknown, thus it has been through the millenia of time. Ignorance of phenomenon has led to many religious superstitions leading to a self-fullfilling prophecy. Perception becoming reality.

[bucket]

AGstar

Thanks, you gave me hope.

Perception becomes reality.

So in that line of thinking:

The "perception" of the cwb losing us 100's of millions is becoming the "reality" of farmers recognizing that fact.

Maybe the government will do something about that.Highly doubtful, unfortunately.

[agstar77]

Sorry, I didn't mean to.

[TOM4CWB]

Agstar,

Interesting comment on 'superstition' and religion.

Fact. The market moves BECAUSE there is a fundamental reason... the technicals are a trend while the major market movers are primarily weather issues that cause significant shifts in supply demand and therefore carryover supplies.

Agstar, are you saying religion predicts/changes the weather... or supersition/religion causes shifts in production?

Is this a positive for grain growers as a larger group... while the general public perceives these problems as negative?

How much responsibility does Iran, the Saudis, Venezuela, and other US oil suppliers have in forcing bio fuel production into the mainstream fuel supply?

If black oil were still $40/barrel... would have the US congress past the recent bio fuel incentives (OPEC caused recent price increases through supply controls)?

How much is global warming religion (humanism) driving our markets... verses the more traditional prophetic outlook of the Biblical Revelation view?

How much responsibility must the CWB take in driving 2008 wheat prices to $25/bu... Which in turn caused every grower on the planet to grow wheat... creating a substantial glut of production (2009)... breaking prices then far below the cost of production?

If wheat value had been stabilised at $10/bu in spring 2008... would the outcome have been very different on wheat/grain prices?

Are commodity monopolies helping anyone... or are they destabilising our global economic system... Which I suggest can NOT be a good thing???

[agstar77]

Markets do not always move because of fundamental reasons. E.G. Nortel. It rose despite fundamentals, greed, until the fundamentals kicked in. You can talk up or down markets in the short term as you can fool people in the short term with religious chicanery, but eventually the emperor is exposed.