Anybody pricing 11-12 CWRS FPC &/or Basis

[boarderbloke]

Just wondering if anybody else has been watching CWB 11-12 prices and basis? Is it too early to price? More potenial upside in prices? How does CWB Basis level look historically, could it get better without our dollar falling?

[furrowtickler]

We were just discusing this, we just delivered #2 11.5 protien and a fpc net to us is $6.30 and the current p.r.o. is around $5.80. We are going to do the fpc. I have no faith in the pro's for 11.5 hrsw going anywhere but up or down more than a few cents - way too much low protien wheat around the world. And no I am not blaming the borg, it just a fact of life this year IMO.

[furrowtickler]

Although if our wheat was sold as per falling number I am sure it is easily a #1 - then we are out at least $3/bus for the same wheat in the U.S. ?
BTW, who does falling number tests in sask?

[btjadenlepp]

sounds like you two are talking about two
different crop years. there is no basis
posted for 2011 wheat yet.

we're doing some fpc's on old-crop this
week too. i think we're going to see a
massive wave of pool opting-out here ahead
of the jan 31 deadline. i just want to get
out of the way of those demurrage bills.

[boarderbloke]

I think SGS will test it?

but I was wondering more about "new crop" 11-12

I know I keep saying I won't grow board grains, but wheat is looking attractive, and trying to get ahead of the curve on Basis, as I always seem too late to get in on a good level.

[boarderbloke]

btjadenlepp, when can you start pricing CWB Basis?

[cottonpicken]

Rolling the dice-100%wheat,durum sold on jan 31.

[tmyrfield]

Did %100 mar basis for cwrs for feb delivery. agree that as end of jan arrives basis will become weaker, did not consider demurage charges so good catch btjl. now question is when to pull trigger on futures.

[btjadenlepp]

boarder, the cwb starts publishing new-
crop basis levels on the same day they
release the first 2011 crop pro. that
will be at their annual grainworld
outlook conference here at the end of
feb. you should really consider coming
to winnipeg and sitting in to hear their
wheat market update, as it will surely
contain lots of useful background and
insights on the basis and the cwb's
other ppo's.

for anyone who doesn't know me or has
never been to grainworld i better
clarify - that was a joke. i need a
'sarcasm' font or something.

[boarderbloke]

ya, after reading the first bit I was wondering! couripe! (sp)

[TOM4CWB]

btjadenlepp,

Brenda I started our 11-12 before Christmas. Did Force Majeure. Winter Wheat Force Majeure is now done.

I am disappointed in how far backwards the CWB has gone on PPO contracts. When we started in 2000... could switch between milling wheat classes... one futures MGE did all... could deliver on present crop year and be paid August 1 cash. This was much better than we have now... less risk by far.

Now the CWB keeps the carry in the market for the whole crop year.

Never been paid out on Force Majeure yet... don't know if it is possible... but very limited tonnes available.

We just might see a Basis at Grain world that makes us smile!

The CWB could do so much better... sad they are stuck in the world of pools... instead we need to be outstanding in our field!