Drew Learners presentations

[furrowtickler]

After his very indepth forecast, anyone else still think 20 mill ac of canola is pie in the sky??? I hope he is wrong for those of you in the central and eastern half of Sask again. After his accuracy last year I know there will be no lentils on our farm, and I will make sure fungicides are ordered early. Huge pay off last year.

[tmyrfield]

Us guys on the east side around wadena/canora don't share the same optimism as everyone else at crop week. It was telling that an American (Drew Lerner)has a better idea of just how wet it is than our own CWB, Crop Insurance, Environment Canada, etc. Or is it just the message being massaged to suit a particular point of view?
good luck guys, we're going to need it.

[vvalk]

Is it possible if one of you guys could give a very brief summary of what he had to say?

[parsley]

O/T but interesting polling if you are a numbers junkie:

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
Pars

[boarderbloke]

furrow, here in the far SESK, we will again be challenged by wet soil this spring, still, we're really not in the same bad way as ECSK or NESK. Not that a couple untimely rains couldn't get us there very quickly.

What I think will really drive prices with fundamentals, will be the weather in the midwest, and whether there'll be production problems because of it. Did he talk about weather in the midwest.

[charliep]

Didn't see Drew but Bruce talked about what was said a little at the
CWB meeting in Saskatoon (let me out of province -there for another
reason). The issue this past summer was the stability of weather
systems/patterns. Bruce had a couple of good charts over the
summer and it showed a high pressure system basically sitting over
the Pacific ocean for most of the summer. Seemed like one as well on
the east side of Canada but can't picture 100 %. The stability in
weather patterns trapped the wet weather on the east side of the
prairies/won't let it go. Talked about the relationship with La Nina
but can't remember (other things on my mind).

From what people told me (not there - others were), probabilities
favor another wet spring on the east side of the prairies. As bad as
last year - others will have to help out.

[tmyrfield]

in a nutshell
weather paterns setting up like 1950'2 and 1970's. 3 different cycles converging at one point in time,
1. fast rollover from el nino to very strong la nina http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/ensosea-levelsea-surface-temperature-page/
2. low sunspot count in a lowering sunspot cycle, ie cooler sun http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://blog.ltc.arizona.edu/azmasternaturalist/Sunspot%2520cycle.JPG&imgrefurl=http://blog.ltc.arizona.edu/azmasternaturalist/2007/03/&h=480&w=800&sz=56&tbnid=ymRS4EdgC2DVhM:&tbnh=86&t bnw=143&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dsunspot%2Bcycle&zoom=1&q=sunspot cycle&usg=__GxVC6fCWiHPQrreR8_9Dh3x8y-c=&sa=X&ei=doE0TY-ULMT58AbO9pStCQ&ved=0CD0Q9QEwBQ
3. arctic oscillation index dropping( warmer winters)http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/detection-images/climate-ao.png


so generally a little dryer especially early in spring so seed early then a generally a cool summer again, http://www.longrangeweather.com/Long-Range-Monthly-Weather-Forecasts.htm

environment canada forecasts are severely underfunded

[boarderbloke]

thanks for the longrangeweather link. We'll have to watch it for updates and accuracy.

[fjlip]

Amazing how the weather changes at the US border? They do not split Sk into E-W either.
You are right tmyrfield, NO optimism in NE, less with every snowfall.

[shaney]

The year of 2010 was a year to forget for many farmers in Western Canada who had to deal with the intense wet weather. I talked to a farmer tonight who got a fraction of his acres even seeded and actually only had nine seeding days to get some crop planted.

Drew Lerner, World Wide Weather has been so right about the weather forecast in the past twelve months it is scary. Many farmers are looking to Drew again this year for his analysis of what could happen in 2011. At CropWeek I had a chance to meet Drew and talk to him about a weather forecast for 2011. Drew and I discuss his analysis of the potential spring, summer and fall that farmers in Western Canada will succeed.

[URL="http://realagriculture.com/category/farm-shows/cropweek11/"]SEE MORE CROPWEEK 2011 COVERAGE[/URL]

If you cannot see the embedded video, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE0lFWU3-fU">click here</a>

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[furrowtickler]

tmy, basicaly summed it up. One other thing was heavy march snow through central/east sask.