A real Commodity Marketing thread. Although its SWS wheat so probably will get into a Monopoly rant

[gustgd]

I'll start with saying " I know that if one uses their programs it only encourages them".

Well I hope I made my worst sale of the 2011 crop year.

http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/bpc-wheat-2011-csrw-20110117.html

Futures prices - Chicago Soft Red Winter
December 2011 $0.00 $8.65 $316.45 $8.61

March 2012 $0.00 $8.75 $320.29 $8.72


$.00 is adj factor
$8.75 is USD bu.
$320.29 is CDN a tonne
$8.72 is CDN a bu.
I used $1.61 freight and elevation (traditional #)
I used $1.00 bu basis easy math. May get positive????
0 trucking it's usually a wash after incentives.

So this leaves me north of $6.00bu
budget 50 bpa = $300.00 acre gross. aprox $180.00 expenses


I'll finish by saying if BTO or Burburt post PLEASE ignore, it clutters the posts. Unless they say something smart then use your own discretion

[gustgd]

Question
Where did the Monopoly add value to this sale? is it worth the $6.00 tonne they add in costs.

Why would anyone take the Dec price when March has carry? and delivery is still under their control.

Should I have taken the Act of God at $5.00 tonne?

Why not offer basis/fixed price throughout the year? What's magical about Grain World conference?

Why not let the minor classes and barley out, probably only 20% volume and 50% headaches?

[Hopperbin]

Is this this years grain or new crop?
Have you found the elevator that will guarantee to take it. The CWB staff are only windbags.

[BTOfarmall]

Kin you please Break Down yer $180 Per Acre Expenses fer me??? Thanks

[bgmb]

se ya tomorrow, I'll be watching for your mesh hat with the pom pom on top

[gustgd]

@hopperbin
This is new crop.
Cargill seems to be interested. Viterra is also, although no commitments.

Were you the guy who had the problems with the Soft white wheat a while back?

What kind of experiences can you pass along?

[cityguy]

CWB added value to the sale - probably not.

Why under the Dec as opposed to the March? Guess it's a question of cash flow as the basis differene between the Dec and the March is simply going to reflect the spread between the two. That being said, if you're cash "rich" and you can afford to wait until the dec goes off the board and you get some appreciation in basis over the winter, then going to the March may have more made more sense from the get go. But if you need the cash flow at delivery then it's a toss as to the dec or the march.

is the $5.00 act of God worth it. Looking at $300 gross revenue and $180 expenses I'd say $5.00/mt or $7.50/ac is probably worth it if you're looking at a saturated spring that doesn't allow you to get the crop in. guess it's a question as to how many bushels you've committed.

Are there any ethanol bids out there for new crop that compare to this sort of value?

[bgmb]

I see new crop feed bly is over 4 bucks.
80*4=320, not bad at all.

With any kind of a basis at all a guy should net over 7.00 on HRS for a 2-13.5.
7*50=450, even better!

How about canola,
12*40=580!

It all seems too good to be true. All you have to do is grow a crop.

[SASKFARMER3]

LPA well see you in Brandon on Wednesday. Hopefully its not to windy so the propeller on your hat doest spin and take you away.

[gustgd]

Cityguy

Belle Plain bids are $4.75 delivered.
(costs me about .30 cents bu. to get it there)
I guess based on Ethanol margins.

Delivery over 8-10 periods. Sometimes they let you over deliver but payment still off of original delivery schedule.

Belle Plaine was very good to work with as far as crop quality and moisture. It's the price they need to work on.

As it was explained to me, the futures and the CWB are doing the job of getting acres into the ground. They figure they will get a portion of it and will be in the game when the time comes.

I still have some Ptarmigan SWW in the ground and hope they can get their price up or, sell in the spot market at Terra fuels or Pound-maker.

I contracted about 10% of an average yield so I expect NOT to use the AOG. or at the very least have locked in a good enough price that someone will be able to take it off me.