A real Commodity Marketing thread. Although its SWS wheat so probably will get into a Monopoly rant

[freewheat]

see new crop feed bly is over 4 bucks.
80*4=320, not bad at all.

With any kind of a basis at all a guy
should net over 7.00 on HRS for a 2-
13.5.
7*50=450, even better!

How about canola,
12*40=580!

It all seems too good to be true. All
you have to do is grow a crop.




Yer math is iffy. 12*40= NOT 580 for
canola
7*50= NOT 450 for wheat.

Just saying.

[Hopperbin]

Cargill took 80 percent as malt wheat.
The last 20 percent cost me a 2 dollar per bushel buyout at the end of year. I phoned a 100 mile radius around Humboldt to take the grain which is quite grain companies starting 5 months before end of crop year. Never again. They had the price so inflated but no actual sales commitment and forced me into a buy out. I am still at a standstill with the CWB to take my grain into a next crop year delivery 4 years later I actually hold the inventory, my demand. They are nervous to take me to court, they only give me threats. Now that fixed is over my price maybe they will finally agree to take it. I won't get any hopes up.

[Hopperbin]

Actually some grain companies were upbeat about it, saying call back later. Nothing materialized. It is still the farmers responsibility to find the delivery location if one actually exsists is another thing and no help from the CWB, All they told me was phone here phone there I phoned the here and the there and everywhere else.

[Hopperbin]

LOL my math never pencils out either when all is said and done LOL

[ajl]

What happens in this case is if the CWB has a number of these futures only contracts: they will widen the basis in order to raise cash for the pools and to support low priced sales. Been there done that. Never a futures without basis first. Same goes for canola.

[bgmb]

HAHA I must have been out of it last night! still pretty sweet even with real math!

Here's to hoping you can get some seed in the ground freewheat, you deserve it!

[freewheat]

Hey bgmb, optimism with numbers is a good thing!!!!lol Your were high, but even the real numbers are excellent, and my optimism is tempered only by the degree of wetness right now.

Thanks for your well wishes.


I could sure live with these prices, goodness, I'm dying to pre-price, but alas, I am too chicken as I look at the snow outside...

[bucket]

Freewheat

"The lord hates a coward"

But what is the worst thing that could happen. Sign a contract and they go higher, roll it until you are out. If the market goes down and you don't seed, you are in the money anyway.

[Burbert]

We once lost 1 cent per bu., selling on a contract. I was so pissed, I'll never do that again! Take all your fancy, fine print, lets pretend, gonna get rich, your sooooo special, don't need a lawyer, God fersaken contracts and put them where the sun don't shine, er in a compost heap.

[charliep]

freewheat.

It is perhaps a year to look at some option strategies if you are worried about the production side and are not prepared to take on the risk of margin calls for a straight futures contract.

Buying wheat puts are select points could help with your risk management strategy. Get advice but some of the cost could be offset with selling calls. Calls in case could also be considered a grain pricing order. If you go in with the thinking that I would sell for sure if wheat hits $10/bu, then being short a call may have a place and help pay for a put.

Others have done here and will have their own comments on the actual results.