Food inflation is the killer of all business cycles

[cottonpicken]

Love the topic but no time for thought except to
say ag productivity has been the base of all
empires. And god bless the iPad.

[wilagro]

Open minds??? With this bunch???

Ahahahahahahahahahahahahhhhaaaahaha

More like a posse in hot pursuit with their noose already formed and their rope a swingin'.

[furrowtickler]

Do you think the 'bubble' could burst with $100 - $120 oil with a weaker U.S economy this time? Lookin sharp as usual charlie - good interview btw.
Food riots give me an uneasy feeling as does 'food' inflation. Don't get me wrong I am optimistic as well and agree with all your points, I just would hate to see the rug pulled out from under us again. You are correct in that 2008 was different as markets went limit up for too long and this time a more stedy pace has evolved.

[bucket]

The reason we are where we are in 2011 is that price destruction in 2008 created demand. The demand is back and "just in time delivery" for food is proving to be a disaster. Saudi Arabia is building warehouses for grain. This time the supply is in question and grain prices should rise until the stocks are back to comfortable levels. Then the importing countries will re-evaluate how much they want to store.

Canola is a good example. 15 dollar canola in 2008 and since then demand has increased due to crushing plants coming on stream, the supply is borderline to meet demand. If statscan hadn't borrowed 700,000 tonnes from the 2010 crop to the 2009 production, where do you think canola would be today? As long as normal crop comes along in 2011 no one will miss that accounting statscan did for the crushing industry. If 2011 isn't near normal, effectively the bins are empty and the canola industry is going to be looking for imported canola or soybeans to crush.

[riders2010]

of course there are some open minds you know the ones if you looked through one ear you could see daylight out the other. Ha ha lol!

[charliep]

My eyes will be focused on China and India. They have been the drivers of the recovery in my mind (others will disagree). Seeing them stumble will not be good.

China is grappling with food inflation as we speak. How far will they go with opening up markets for basic food stuffs or will they carry on their policy of being food self sufficient? I remind myself first and foremost China respresents 20 % of the world population.

[furrowtickler]

I think you are right bucket on canola supplies, creative acounting lol. If heavy snows fall in march here and no hot dry spell in april / may canola stocks into next year will be non - exsitant.
It is hard to look at a nice 5x5 whitetail through the scope and pass it up hopeing to get the next hanson buck later in the season, only to eat tag soup, lol.

[riders2010]

I get a kick out of people that keep referring to the american economy as in trouble, yes I think it is worse than in trouble, but our oil industry is masking just how bad our economy is here. Our debt farm and the average city slicker debt is way above the american family. Where is all this confidence?

The truth of how bad it is here is intentionally being downplayed because I think there is an election just around the corner because come summer to fall the shit storm the US had is gonna be trivial matter to all of us with the rising interest rates.

[vvalk]

Wilagro and rider. So wanting the right to market my cwb grains like the rest of what I grow is like the KKK? Yet forcing farmers by threat of jail is enlightened. Have essentially the exact same marketing strategy for 75 yrs is intelligent and those who want change are air heads? Please explain this to me. I'm not nearly smart enough to get your comments

[smallguy]

I rest my case!!! This thread had nothing to do with the CWB, but sure as s--t, i knew sooner or later, (it was sooner), that someone was going to have to mention them. BTO, Burbert jump in at any time here!!