Australia

[charliep]

Should google before I do anything.

[URL="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE70J03K20110120?feedType=RSS"]china aussie fd wht[/URL]

[Hopperbin]

Under cutting? I think we need some link, is this a sale made 2 months ago into a rising market and comparing todays price to one made 2 months ago?
I have my doubts weather any grain company or publicly traded company will undercut any market. The idea is to sell for the best price. Increase company profits, or share prices. I agree that Ausi grain is likely higher protein , Mallie do you guys get a payment for protein? I have more inclination to agree with a grain company buying cheap, but selling cheap? Naaa

[charliep]

For what is worth, the feed wheat buy back price today is $133.24 for a US sale (total of $261.24 at port). Your 200 % EPO is about $237/tonne port. $24/tonne will have gone missing in the pooling system with zero chance of returning.

You may get mad at the Aussie for discounting but they are at least making sales on a close to 10 MMT feed wheat crop - farmers can choose to deliver or not. The CWB can make $24 disappear in time when they are only doing select feed wheat sales off the west coast. Otherwise, where is the feed wheat movement? Why aren't there US sales on the books/movement to go with them?

[bucket]

All very positive indications that china may be short grain. They will be back to corn as soon as they get the price down. Either way demand is up and supplies are not getting larger.

[Hopperbin]

Are they using this feed wheat for milling, by the taste and texture of most things made out of wheat in china, feed should work. Sucks when they are not fussy about their bread.

[tipsy]

agstar not sure of your point, what does it matter what the aussies are selling their wheat for?

[agstar77]

Appropriate Alias. L.O.L.

[charliep]

Actually a good question. Why do we care what the Aussie sold for? I guess
the CWB/farmers (realizing the prairies are 800 miles plus from port and have
restrictive logistic capacity) are speculating on higher feed wheat prices.
Guess the CWB will either be right or wrong. The actual wheat crop is 60 %
priced based on pricing pace in the pooling system so in some sense an
acedemic question.

[agstar77]

Jody also commented that the Aussie sale pressured U.S. corn prices downward.

[charliep]

We have $6.50/bu corn futures. If someone farted in the market, it would
pressure the market down. Will a 150,000 tonne sale plus 500,000
potential impact the overall corn situation? Is it a surprise Canada and
Australia combined have 15 MMT of feed wheat to sell? Won't some of this
feed wheat business not be corn competition but rather replacing
Ukraine/Russian exports?

[agstar77]

Just reporting what I read, let others judge the significance. Perhaps if the CWB had done it , you would have had a different slant.

[charliep]

Yes. Reported CWB sales backed by guaranteed delivery contracts in the country and opportunity at $5/bu plus prices on delivery. How tough can it be in this market to load 50,000 to 75,000 tonne vessels with unit trains that are doing nothing but feed wheat? Load unit train. Dump Prince Rupert. Return prairies. Load unit train. Etc. How much logistic efficiency are we losing trying to turn a sow's ear (feed wheat) into a silk purse (blended 3CWRS)?

[charliep]

I realize even the CWB needs to attract deliveries and farmers are doing all they can to blend up to higher grades.

Way off malleefarmer original posting but the need to have other grading tools than visual. I note mcfarms comments in another thread. Same questions at the CWB meeting in Saskatoon. How do we identify higher falling number wheat with other grading problems? how do we segregate/move through the handling system?

[tipsy]

Agstar, as you well know there is no comparison how an Aussie and western Canadian farmer market their wheat. The Aussie farmer sells his wheat in a complete open, voluntary, transparent and commercial system. A western Canada farmer DOES NOT compete in an open,voluntary,transparent and commercial system.
AND yes it should matter to you, when your beloved cwb price cuts. After all it's our money from our finical bottom line!

[TOM4CWB]

tispy,

Well said.

Further, in a voluntary system... price transparency is NOT an issue.

The CWB holds on to the crazy principal that growers are NOT allowed to know what the sales values are... because of 'commercial confidentiality'.

A report on Aussie feed wheat sales:

"The sale of four cargoes of feed wheat, likely totaling around 200,000 metric tons, has already been agreed with Chinese buyers headed by government agency Cofco Ltd., and keen bargaining is underway for more sales, the person said by phone. "There appears to be a lot that is being negotiated but is still on the table at the moment" and hasn't been finalized, the person said. Prices on sales have been agreed around US$280/metric ton, free-on-board east coast Australia. Macquarie Research Thursday forecast Australian wheat production to reach 24 million metric tons in the crop year ending March 31, and estimated that wheat suitable only as feed for livestock would account for 34% of the total crop, much higher than normal."

Freight is only $31/t to China from CDN West Coast ports.

Would like Mallee to comment on the $22/t cost by the Wheat Export Authority that is deducted on all Aussie bulk export sales! This seems high isn't it?