Futures Prices

[charliep]

Just making sure everyone is following markets on these call days.

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=default"]nearby futures quotes[/URL]

CBT corn (mar.) closed today $6.66/bu. since 2004, only exceeded this price two months - June and July of 2008.

CBT soybean oil closed at 58.72 cents/lb. since 2004, only exceeded this price during the period March 2008 to July 2008. Only exceeded 70 cents for one month.

Canola futures (mar) closed today at $609/tonne. Since 2004, only exceeded this price from Feb 2008 to July 2008. Highs of marginally over $700/tonne were achieved briefly feb/mar 2008.

MGEX wheat (Mar) closed today at $9.81/bu. Since 2004, prices have only been above $10/bu from january 2008 to July 2008. Only above $14/bu for two month.

Are these prices sustainable without production problems in a major crop producing region? How long?

[charliep]

New crop pricing. Malt barley cash plus $5.75/bu plus top up (should be $6/bu).

Canola nov futures - $570/tonne. Basis - ?. Should be $12.50/bu ish. 40 bu/acre canola crop @above equals $500/acre.

Spring wheat - BPC new crop - $360/tonne. You run your assumptions basis/deductions. New crop 1CWRS 13.5 fpc likely in the $8 to $8.50/bu range. CPS wheat - $7.50/bu. 50 bu/acre spring wheat equals $425/acre. CPS - 60 bu/acre $450/acre.

Malt - 70 bu/acre equals $420. Peas - you run numbers but assuming $7/bu yellows and 50 bu/acre equals $350/acre.

Above are the rantings of a mad man but would seem to indicate optimism (yes if you can get the crop seeded).

[silverback]

Great Prices Charlie - Thank You.

It would be even better if we could actually deliver to an elevator and get these prices right now!

[cottonpicken]

Ahhhhh,i love the smell........

Have the shorts started to cover yet?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALi78xSaP0Y

[BTOfarmall]

Mink Coat...... Blowin Smoke in da Air, Sippin Ice Cold Beer, Wit yer Girl in My Ear, Sayin', I Just Wanna Party.......

Champagne's Poured, Da Weeds Lit....

Wanna Party??? Prices are Good. Where's da Barcardi!!!!

[ab3]

Mink coat ,that is kind of funny glad no one
banned bto his posts are better than most.

[$short]

Overnights are up again. All I want for groundhog day is $7 corn......

[charliep]

March MGEX spring wheat will cross $10/bu (May and July are there already).

A frustration is corn likely will hit $7/bu and feed barley will still be worth $3.50 to $4/bu and feed wheat $4.75 to $5.25/bu.

No trades on western barley futures.

No arbitrage with international feed grain prices. Price signals as deemed necessary by the CWB based on their operation/risk managment needs - not needs of farmers.

[charliep]

Feed wheat prices (okay the 200 % EPO) don't change day to day with futures. How come?

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/epo/epo-wheat-2010-feed-20110201.html"]fd wheat EPO[/URL]

The feed wheat discount on an fpc remains wide at $34.03.

Putting in numbers. You would have got an initial payment of about $110/tonne if you had delivered yesterday.

Assuming you priced on January 31, you would have locked in a 1CWRS 13.5 payment of $348.46/tonne. Your initial is $239.80.

Cheque in the mail after ten days - $74.63. Total fpc payment feed wheat - $185 ish or $5/bu. Same as the 200 % EPO.

Feed wheat movement/export sales opportunities????????

[cottonpicken]

Would argue the corn number is 7.65-the old high.

Looks like it will be tested,will it punch through?If it
does there is no resistance left and the specs and
black boxes will drag it onward and upward.

Dr.Copper showed us that it is possible.

[bucket]

bucket posted Jan 18, 2011 18:29
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Patience, grasshopper.

You don't want this thing to blow. A horse that shits fast, doesn't shit for long.

The world is just coming to terms with the lack of grain if another 2010 comes along. This was not a stocks rebuilding year. So everyone is nervous.

A nice slow climb will be better. There will be a setback or two, but 10 bucks by mid february.

[bucket]

And it made ten on the second day of february, interesting?

[bucket]

Just wish I knew how to make some money on that. Unfortunately, I took the pool for my leftover wheat.

Worse, durum ia at a premium to wheat and we are getting nothing for it.

[cottonpicken]

Good call,very little resistance to 15.

[cottonpicken]

http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&divd=Y&org=stk&sym= MWH1&data=E&code=BSTK&evnt=adv



How is the pool going to even come close to what they are saying?