Bullish USDA

[furrowtickler]

Looks like anouther leg up, what you think cotton? How far do we let her ride, 2008 still fresh in my mind though.

[charliep]

[URL="http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-02-09-2011.pdf"]USDA February[/URL]

[charliep]

Tighter world and US corn was the only major change.

[SASKFARMER3]

Corn is tight and will get tighter with SA second crop going to Cotton. Later dorn doesnt yeild as good in SA.
The corn fight is on.
IMHO.

[boarderbloke]

Couldn't find any numbers specific to Flax, did I miss them?
Would be interesting to see where they think global stocks are sitting at!
IMO, Flax might be a lost dog in the 2011 acreage battle, because NEW CROP offers of $12.75 won't cut it when NEW CROP canola can be priced close to $13.00

[charliep]

CBT corn over $7/bu on May and July contracts.

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=default"]futures quotes[/URL]

[cottonpicken]

The lines in the sand for wheat and corn are the old
highs,a few months ago i would have said it would be
near impossible to punch through them so quickly-but
copper went and proved me wrong,it is very possible.

As far as beans and canola i still don't believe the
trading range has been set like the other
commodities,if you look at a chart going back to
71,you will see how cheap beans look.

[MoeAgostino]

>

[Happytrails]

I finally understand "the medium is the message." We have high grain prices brought to you by (drum roll) the ethanol industry. Subsidized ethanol production steals food from babies. Save the high quality feed by-product argument. Two thirds of the food value is gone. In other words it makes a 150 bu/acre corn crop feed like 50 bu/acre. Too big a handicap IMO. Great for grain farmers but awful for the rest of us. HT

[charliep]

Don't think you can make the arguement ethanol steals food from babies.

Corn (in the developed world at least) has never been a human food crop. It is a livestock feed both in North American markets and the developed world (Japan, South Korea, etc.). I think one place that is being impacted is the competitiveness and cost of the livestock industry. People are making a fundamental choice between secure and environmentally friendly fuel supplies and low cost meat on their on their plates - a privelege enjoyed in the developed world.

The other issue is the fact that productivity is basically keeping up with the increased demand from the ethanol. Corn yields have close to doubled in the past 20 years. I would hate to think where the price of corn would be today with no ethanol industry and a 13 bln bu crop. Loan deficiency payments. Direct payments. Low international prices.

Higher prices are actually a good thing in that farmers all over the world (not just North America) can enjoy better profit potential. A farmer will use more inputs and better technology with this profit potential - not just North America/Europe but everywhere.

[Happytrails]

Charlie you make some good arguments but in the end we will disagree.

1. We keep livestock mostly for food. Less livestock feed means less food.

2. Corn production can't meet the need (want) for fuel regardless of yield improvements. Using the entire US corn crop for ethanol would supply that countries fuel consumption for about 6 weeks. What about the other 46 weeks?
Maybe by using oil wiser they could stretch 46 weeks to 52 and still have corn to feed people.

3. We all know how much diesel, power, pesticides, fertilizer and labor go into a bushel of corn. I don't know how ethanol can claim to be a low C0 2 fuel.

4. In economics the allocation of scarce resources is controlled by the laws of supply and demand. To suggest we would have a 13 bln bus corn crop without subsidized ethanol is wrong. The effect of this policy is to drive corn production at the cost of other crop acreage and the inflation of crop inputs.