Do you remember a wilder week on the markets?

[theplowboy]

I was just checking the futures markets and after Tuesdays meltdown, I see wheat up 39, canola up 8.6, soys up 44.6....

Was there some news I missed?

Why the volatility? I can't believe Libya is that important in the grand scheme of things?

Do you guys think this price strength will continue?

[charliep]

Similar things happened in February and March 2008.

Don't know if you remember my $5,000 marketing course for you and
your spouse. Involved sitting on the beach drinking cervesa somewhere
warm and watching the tide. We are in the equivalent of the hurricane
season. Will let others forecast how long the hurricane will last, had bad
it will get and when it will leave.

[furrowtickler]

I have been wary of 2008 for some time, but evryone was saying this time would be different. It is not realy, High oil, high fuel, high food costs - throw in a few riots and..... 2008. Although not excactly the same it will not be far off. I hope i am wrong.

[ianben]

Tunisia Egypt Libya Quatar Barain is a
bit scary for the markets.
In all above the army has refused to
fire by enlarge on the protesters,
Unlike China and Tianaman square when
they sent the tanks in.

If this gives the Chinese confidence to
try to overthrow their government then
perhaps we should all be scared.

I dont know what can be done about it
though.
Can the western world survive without
Chinese exports even for a couple of
months?

[furrowtickler]

We would survive, but grains/oilseeds would loose half there value for a while.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

In 2008 the 'sub prime' monetization was driving the price rally to own real food and tangible assets.

In 2011 it is the 100 trillion of 'quantitative easing' that is inflating our values... ON PURPOSE.

This is simply a copy of the Japanese 1990-2008 model... to have 0 interest and inflate the currency till the bubble of upside down equity is corrected.

No one should be surprised on Agriville.

[fjlip]

"Seasonal selling pressure in grain and oilseeds is also being felt as markets are in what appears to be a classic "February break." And that could trigger additional near-term selling pressure. These are volatile times.

And like all grain markets, canola futures have suffered in the recent speculative exodus from previously long held positioning. Chart damage across the spectrum of ag commodities now appears very real, no matter what one’s fundamental bias suggests.

Fundamentally, the oilseed situation remains friendly. Supplies are tightening and demand remains generally strong. So perhaps talk will develop that canola futures are oversold.

But the path of least resistance for now remains to the downside. Chart damage is a key concern right now for sure.

I have to admit I have some trouble with all the market chatter that protests in Libya or North Africa mean demand for ag commodities is going to fall off the cliff. I just don’t believe that.
And as it stands now, important chart support must hold down another $20 lower around the $540 a tonne area or I fear the 2008 spin-out–of-control collapse could get things mighty dreadful and in a hurry.
Again, fundamentally, it is difficult to be so worrisome. I still view such wild selling in canola and all the ag commodities as simply a volatile shift of money flow. But we cannot know that for certain."

[MoeAgostino]

We think there was a fair bit of spec fund rebalancing that cause the spike down...there really was little news this week and the markets bounced up yesterday. Here is Michelle's report.

I agree volatility is going to be with us the next few months.

Moe


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[crusher]

The waves were a little high in the Mayan Riviera so we could only sit and drink by the pool. Saw a few neighbours down there and bought them a drink, so I think I'll expense the trip. Left the laptop, phone, blah, blah, blah at home. Hopefully Monday morning the markets perk right up and I won't have to deal with the turbulence of mid last week.

When's spring coming? Not supposed to be above -15 all week. If canola goes back to $600 I am out of here.