Another Canola acres estimate

[fjlip]

Another guess to move the market...
"Canada's farmers look to plant a record canola area of 19.5 million acres or more this spring, driven by expanding crush capacity and strong global demand, an official with Bunge Ltd. said Monday.

The biggest wild card is high potential for serious spring flooding that could take much land out of production in Western Canada.
With the right weather we could take a run over 20 million acres," Hoyt said. ...Right now, I have to imagine (a farmer) is planting as much canola as possible.

Canola stocks may get tight by summer, but if farmers manage to plant 20 million acres to canola this spring, canola prices at current levels look too high and may be due for correction, Hoyt said."

[dschill]

I agree 100%...Farmers have learned to plant in "no matter how" conditions. We have had to broadcast seed two years in a row and had very good success. The first time i broadcast seeded I didn't sleep for 2 weeks till stand was established, now I would do it in my sleep. I called a couple different equipment manufacturers to purchase a new air-flow unit. Two company's are sold out till next summer because farmers/retail outlets are buying in case they need to broadcast seed canola crop according to salesman...just like I want to do. If it's a difficult seeding i'm pretty sure guys will bail on the pulse crops and plant canola...

[sjc]

Another corporate ivory tower dude trying to get the new crop price of canola to drop. There is absolutely no way in hell there will be 20 million acres of canola seeeded this year. No way, never happen.

[Hopperbin]

Sulpher fine application may be way up also.

[charliep]

Would note the acreage estimate was relatively small portion of the oilseed presentation at Grain World and only in the context of developing a forecast Canadian canola balance sheet for the coming year.

Perhaps more of a highlight was comments on biodiesel mandates in the US (still underultizing biodiesel relative to the mandate) and the return of the $1/gallon blending credit. Europe is also struggling to keep up with biodiesel mandates.

Tight US corn S&D and competition for acres was a common theme as well.

what will a correct number for canola acres likely be (keeping in mind no one knows for sure at this time)? Assuming a 19.5 mln acres crops and 14 to 14.5 MMT production, what would the impact on prices be? Perhaps even more important, what is the disappearance side considering domestic crush has grown to 8 MMT capacity?