2011 Prospects...

[farming101]

New poster, old lurker..
Looking out the back door prospects for this year are very gloomy.
Deep snow piled up in yards, trees and cattails. The soil is saturated. It would be wise to make sure any production contracts signed have an out in case of no production.
In survival mode....

[wmoebis]

How much bigger/smaller does it look like the too wet area will be over last year?

Is there a moisture map? Can't find on on crop ins. web site.

[freewheat]

Welcome. It doesn't look real good does it? Yesterday though, I started to feel better. I don't know why, but for the first time since last May, I started to feel hopeful. I think once the snow goes, if it doesn't rain much, we have a kick at the can. At least this year some of my acres are bare of trash. Last year the soil was covered in straw/residue. This year I got some burnt, some cultivated. So I feel some tiny confidence. The stuff that wouldn't burn and was too wet to cultivate will be interesting though. I also got my crop insurance coverage levels, and with canola coverage at 370 an acre, I will get the seed on the ground no matter what this time around. Plane if need be. Finally got 1999 10 bushel canola yield due to hail dropped out of my history. It is the first time I have had production coverage higher than my production costs, something to make my heart beat after several years of crappy weather. Paying a 15 dollar premium for this coverage is a non-issue. With my next highest crop, wheat at 220 an acre, the sask crop insurance corp has told me what all to seed this year. Thank you crop insurance.

In a previous thread I harped about wanting a decent crop insurance coverage, heck with other programs. Well it appears I got my wish...LOL

I hope for you the best, you sound
like you could be a neighbor of mine!

[smallguy]

Hey freewheat, your canola coverage, is that at 70 or 80%? Also thats the way to do her, by thinking positive. I know its hard sometime. Besides in this country, a week of sun and mid 20 temps with a 40 k wind in mid april,you will be set to go!!

[cottonpicken]

Lol,i thought i was doing good at a 252 coverage.

[fjlip]

Freewheat you must have good land and yield history! We are $302 at 80%, $12.79 premium for canola. $202 for wheat.

Thank God for crop insurance, just get it seeded some how by June 7, unless it is extended like last year to June 15.
Almost 3 months to melt and dry up.

Wow 1C Monday to Wednesday,then colder, minus 9 by the 21st. Still no melting for us.
Drew Lerner at NET market outlook in Wadena, Mar 31. Updated forecast hopefully drier.

[freewheat]

Canola is a 12.79 premium for 321.12 coverage at 80%

70% is 280.80 for premium of 8.62

IP canola, high acid in my case, with a contract price option is where the 370 comes from. Premium of about 15 bucks.
I had forgot about the 1999 yield. It had kept my average yields down by nearly 4 bushels an acre. At 14 bucks, that makes quite a difference!

So kinda a no-brainer.

It is nice to have something positive to think about finally, and a reason to giver this spring!

[farming101]

I might have overdone it on the doom and gloom tone of my message. Just saying that we will try and prepare our best for anything that gets thrown at us. Staying away from one-sided production contracts seems like a good place to start.
And ya, no sense in getting to pessimistic now. Maybe a nice melt will evaporate away some of this water.
Canola did a major U-turn today. Still a little life in the markets...

[freewheat]

fjlip, it's not the land, its the operator... Just kidding. The land is all right, but not amazing. Bear in mind though, I have three years in there that i never seeded canola due to too wet as well, and so i didn't have some 15 bushel wetness suffering crop dragging me down either.