Lets Be Realistic on Canola Acreage!

[SASKFARMER3]

When I was in the states I spent some time with Dave Thomas (Wendy Guy)1st CFO. Man was he interesting fellow. Had a great time. Learnt lots from him. I like spending time with guys who made it. Interesting to get his views about different things.
So Back to Canola.
We have all grain companies bragging how Canadian farmers are going to seed 20 plus million acres. Hm the guys who buy our product are projecting huge acreage. Doesn't this drive down the market and who wins. DAH the grain companies. So its advantageous for them to spout off the acreage.
Stats Canada will be out at end of month in April with our seeding intentions. Amazing how takes them months to come up with this BS. USDA does it in days.
So realistically on canola how much will get seeded.
I'm saying 17.6 million acres.
WHY. Its really simple for those that cant figure it out. East is way way way to wet going into fall and heavy snow heavy heavy snow cover. West Sask and south have snow seeding will be delayed. Hm old guy told me once south of swift if you don't get it in before mid of may your pouched on a normal year.
So to all the hype buy our buyers Kiss my you know what. Mid June will be the true picture.
On our farm projected Canola since last harvest was 3600 acres. Realistically today we will get about 2100 seeded rest if nothing changes is two wet of ground.
So here is a simple question what are others figuring.

[charliep]

From a demand and price perspective, what is the difference between a 17.6 mln acre crop and a 20 mln acre one?

At this point, no knows acreage let alone production. From a consumption, I think Canada could easily grow a 14 MMT canola crop and not have an impact on prices. What happens south of us in terms of soybeans will have far more impact on prices.

Similarly, I would be watching biodiesel policy in Europe and the US. Biodiesel production/consumption has not be keeping up with the mandates so will be interesting to see how both regions respond to this situation. Canada is also coming on line with a 2 % (I believe) biodiesel mandate.

[charliep]

You can add on the political, social and environmental instability. The world is becoming a very confusing place with lots of risk (both opportunity and pain).

Perhaps why having a business plan that takes control of things within your control, a risk management plan and finally a focus on making money/profit is critical to survival.

[boarderbloke]

You hooked up with Dave Thomas this trip, luckey guy, where did you cross paths with him, golfing?

[boarderbloke]

IMHO, think a lot of canola seed will be ordered, a lot will be delivered to farms, and a lot will be planted, provided Mother Nature allows for it. I also think it very possible to see a lot of seed returned! With conditions the way they are(high price and wet land), I can't see many people thinking a whole lot differently. At this point, to KNOW something definitely, would only be a guess, and that would apply to buyers, sellers, traders, crushers, end users, farmers brokers, and retailers.
P.S. add Stats Can to that list too.

[fjlip]

I'd guess low. COLD weather could kill us at either end of this growing season!
Lerner is NOT changing his guess.

http://www.grainews.ca/issues/story.aspx?aid=1000405536&link_source=aypr_GRN&lin k_targ=DailyNews

[bucket]

SF3

Who did you spend time with? Was it Dave Thomas or a CFO?

[boarderbloke]

Drew Lerner, sourced DePutter Pub

http://www.syngentafarm.ca/Alerts/AlertDetail.aspx?AlertTypeId=5&alertId=142599

[gregpet]

Dave Thomas died quite a few years ago. Worked himself to death.

[furrowtickler]

Stays wet - 17mill ac
Acerage spring - 18.5 mill ac
Perfect spring - 20
Chances - wet 60%
- ave 30%
- dry 10%
Still a month to go and anything can happen, 90% of snow cover to go yet in most areas. Come may 31st we will know, I doubt anyone will be mudding in canola well into June like last year - 20-40% green seed does not pay bills.

[fjlip]

Must mud in or broadcast seed somehow for $302 crop insurance per acre by June 7 or so, unless deadline is extended. Way better than $70 unseeded and SMF 2 years in a row!

[boarderbloke]

gregpet,,,we were all waiting for SF3 to answer!!!!! jees!

[fjlip]

Was Dave a ghost or a clone for PR purposes? SK3 check your source of interesting facts.

[gregpet]

I know but maybe it was his grandson. I don't think sf3 is that foolish.

[furrowtickler]

Good point fj. How did crop ins evaluate crop establishment last year? Might be a touchy issue this spring.