Is the bull charging again??

[bucket]

After reading a couple of articles, one that said even a large crop won't affect supply/demand fundamentals.

So is the leg up prior to seeding or this a long term bull?

What are some thoughts on prices for the next couple of months?

[mbratrud]

Not trying to parrot every analyst out there but until demand shows signs of being rationed because of high prices, we will have high prices. This report this morning shows that has not happened yet. This market is being driven by demand, when that shows signs of turning you will have wanted to have sold a week before.

[bucket]

What week is that?

Hearing of snow cover in the northern tier states where they should be planting already. Someone should be getting nervous, I know I am. This crop has to go in somehow.

[mbratrud]

Wouldn't we all like to know that answer... Supply Challenges could be what put us over the top, but i think the Markets are already anticipating problems. Nice thing about this USDA report today is it buys us some time to let some of these other spring events to unfold. This is a great selling opportuntity though especially for those guys with a bunch of old crop.

[burnt]

There is seldom a timely or early planting season when Easter comes late.

This year it comes almost at the end of April.

[MoeAgostino]

Today's USDA reports confirm what the bulls were looking for, so yes we have started the bullish run again.

The market is going to be watching the weather and crop conditions very closely until the end of June.

It sure does not look like we are going to have an early spring anywhere in North America.

Take care,

Moe Agostino
Farms.com Risk Management

[bucket]

Well everything was looking good until I read this:

""Global wheat supplies are approaching burdensome levels once again.

"We're seeing increased wheat production for next year. We're now looking at approximate world wheat production of 660 million tonnes with some upside potential" says Kaitlin Miller, Manager of Sales Strategy with the Canadian Wheat Board.""

This is from an organization that currently can't load boats and are shipping wheat into the southeast states. Not to mention they sell high quality wheat and durum that is in short supply. And they are talking the market down.

Its gotta make you wonder.

[bucket]

Unless I read it wrong and she meant upside potential for prices.

But it is the cwb and that is doubtful.

[Hopperbin]

I believe late planting equals reduced yield for north america. High oil price equals corn demand. Lots of moisture equals fast start and growth. Excess moisture equals Saskfarmer3 has couple years less lifespan.

[Hopperbin]

Correction, excess moisture equals sask3 to live longer, he seems to enjoy it.