I got this today, interesting info on the condition of the US Wheat crop.
I will be visiting the US (Kansas City and Missouri) next week and have the chance to talk to farmers etc so will try to report on what they are seeing.
Joe Dales
Farms.com Agriville
Excerpted from U.S. Wheat Associates, Wheat Letter
Wheat growers throughout the United States found that 2010 was a banner year in most locations. The status of the 2011 crop, however, is in doubt, according to producers responding to a query by the International Grains Program at Kansas State University and Plains Grains, Inc. during a "Producer Market Awareness Seminar," held March 29 to 30 in Manhattan , KS . The event featured crop updates from several states.
U.S. HRW production for 2011/12 has been hit hard by drought. According to Jim Shroyer, Research and Extension Agronomist with Kansas State University , about 10.1 inches (25.65 cm) of evapotranspiration (ET = soil moisture plus precipitation) are required to produce the first bushel of wheat in a given acre. After that, each inch (2.54 cm) of ET produces about 5.5 bushels.
"Since Sept. 1, in southwest Kansas we've had 38 percent of our normal moisture," says Shroyer, who adds that west central and northwest Kansas are not faring much better (40 percent and 52 percent of normal, respectively) and that much of the late-emerging wheat is leafing out underneath the surface in those areas.
"Now is the time for wheat to tiller, and we're running out of time and moisture for that to happen," he adds.
The wheat in northwest and west central Kansas could be better than expected, barring any unforeseen weather calamities. The central and eastern Kansas crops also look average to above average. In general, the difference between good-looking wheat and struggling wheat seems to be variability in planting date and the spotty nature of rainfall events throughout the state since last fall.
Reports from other states include:
Texas : The good news is that there is minimal disease pressure; the bad news is that there isn't much wheat to begin with. There are some reports of leaf rust and stripe rust, but not enough to cause much concern. Every county in Texas — save four — are in some level of drought. At last check, the crop is 62 percent poor to very poor. Abandonment will be high.
Oklahoma : Wheat along the I-35 corridor looks good, but wheat in southwest Oklahoma and in the Panhandle may not make anything and could be grazed out. The entire crop is rated 39 percent poor to very poor. There is some barley yellow dwarf but very little rust development.
Nebraska : The northern Panhandle has received timely moisture and is one of the better areas of the state. The southern Panhandle is dry and has received very little moisture since January. Spotty stands are prevalent along the southern border. Farmers planted just 1.5 million acres of wheat in Nebraska , one of the lowest totals in memory.
Colorado : Farmers dusted in their wheat last fall, although subsoil moisture at the time was good. Poor stands caused some winter injury. The crop was recently rated at 51 percent poor to very poor. The states' farmers planted 2.5 million acres.
In general, the majority of the hard red winter wheat-growing region needs additional rainfall…and soon. “If we get a little bit of moisture at the right time, we’ll have an average crop,” Nebraska Wheat Board Executive Director Royce Schaneman said. “If we miss the rain, we’ll fall a little short.”
I will be visiting the US (Kansas City and Missouri) next week and have the chance to talk to farmers etc so will try to report on what they are seeing.
Joe Dales
Farms.com Agriville
Excerpted from U.S. Wheat Associates, Wheat Letter
Wheat growers throughout the United States found that 2010 was a banner year in most locations. The status of the 2011 crop, however, is in doubt, according to producers responding to a query by the International Grains Program at Kansas State University and Plains Grains, Inc. during a "Producer Market Awareness Seminar," held March 29 to 30 in Manhattan , KS . The event featured crop updates from several states.
U.S. HRW production for 2011/12 has been hit hard by drought. According to Jim Shroyer, Research and Extension Agronomist with Kansas State University , about 10.1 inches (25.65 cm) of evapotranspiration (ET = soil moisture plus precipitation) are required to produce the first bushel of wheat in a given acre. After that, each inch (2.54 cm) of ET produces about 5.5 bushels.
"Since Sept. 1, in southwest Kansas we've had 38 percent of our normal moisture," says Shroyer, who adds that west central and northwest Kansas are not faring much better (40 percent and 52 percent of normal, respectively) and that much of the late-emerging wheat is leafing out underneath the surface in those areas.
"Now is the time for wheat to tiller, and we're running out of time and moisture for that to happen," he adds.
The wheat in northwest and west central Kansas could be better than expected, barring any unforeseen weather calamities. The central and eastern Kansas crops also look average to above average. In general, the difference between good-looking wheat and struggling wheat seems to be variability in planting date and the spotty nature of rainfall events throughout the state since last fall.
Reports from other states include:
Texas : The good news is that there is minimal disease pressure; the bad news is that there isn't much wheat to begin with. There are some reports of leaf rust and stripe rust, but not enough to cause much concern. Every county in Texas — save four — are in some level of drought. At last check, the crop is 62 percent poor to very poor. Abandonment will be high.
Oklahoma : Wheat along the I-35 corridor looks good, but wheat in southwest Oklahoma and in the Panhandle may not make anything and could be grazed out. The entire crop is rated 39 percent poor to very poor. There is some barley yellow dwarf but very little rust development.
Nebraska : The northern Panhandle has received timely moisture and is one of the better areas of the state. The southern Panhandle is dry and has received very little moisture since January. Spotty stands are prevalent along the southern border. Farmers planted just 1.5 million acres of wheat in Nebraska , one of the lowest totals in memory.
Colorado : Farmers dusted in their wheat last fall, although subsoil moisture at the time was good. Poor stands caused some winter injury. The crop was recently rated at 51 percent poor to very poor. The states' farmers planted 2.5 million acres.
In general, the majority of the hard red winter wheat-growing region needs additional rainfall…and soon. “If we get a little bit of moisture at the right time, we’ll have an average crop,” Nebraska Wheat Board Executive Director Royce Schaneman said. “If we miss the rain, we’ll fall a little short.”
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