1.0. Overview
1.1. Confirmatory Finding—Conservative Victory
As detailed below, this new COMPAS poll confirms the preponderance of
findings from the polls of most firms, including COMPAS’ early in the campaign,
that the Conservatives are en route to victory. As in our previous poll, we
anticipate a large Conservative victory, virtually large enough to assure a
majority—46% vs. 26% for the NDP, as detailed below in section 2.1.
1.2. New Finding # 1—the NDP Has By Far the Most to Fear and
the Most to Hope for
This national COMPAS poll focuses on voter stability.1 Two dramatic
findings are that as many as 61% of all voters say that they may change their
mind and that the NDP vote is especially unpredictable. Far more than any
other party’s support, the NDP support is capable of both a major collapse and
a sizeable further increase depending upon what goes through the minds of
voters during the last few hours and depending also on the strength of the NDP
machine.
The NDP share of the vote, currently 26%, could
�� fall to 20% if the party fails to overcome its special
challenge, that its supporters are far less familiar with
their local NDP candidate than are Conservative and
Liberals voters with their candidates, as detailed below,
or
�� Climb to 36% if all voters who say they could switch to
the NDP in the last hours actually do.
The NDP vote is by far the least stable among the major parties with 79% of
NDP supporters saying that they could change their minds, as shown in table
1.2a. If any party is disappointed on election day, it could be the NDP given that
the overwhelming majority of its supporters say that they could change their
mind.
The Conservatives have the most to rejoice about because their vote is the
most loyal. The high loyalty or stability of the Conservative vote is remarkable
given that the Conservatives are at a high point, attracting normally Liberal
voters in large numbers. Yet, even the Conservative vote is not absolutely loyal
or stable, only loyal or stable compared to the others.
In keeping with the proportion of NDP voters who say that they could
change their minds is a high proportion of NDP voters who do not know the
names of the local candidates for whom they intend to cast ballots.
Conservative and Liberal voters are about 50% more likely to know the names
of the candidates they plan to vote for than are NDP voters, as shown in table
1.2b.
Admittedly, voters do not need to know before Monday the names of the
local candidates for whom they intend to cast ballots, but knowledge of these
names is a potential indicator of stability of commitment.
1.2. New Finding # 2—Conservatives Would Actually Gain from
a NDP Faltering
While political scientists and journalists often talk about parties being on a
left-right spectrum, voters are not behaving that way in a uniform or predictable
way, as shown in table 2. An NDP retreat would see its supporters going in all
directions, including towards the Conservatives. Though more NDPers would
switch to the Liberals than Conservatives, the Conservatives are so far ahead
of the Liberals that the Conservatives could well benefit more in seats from an
NDP faltering, given our electoral system.
In practice, the Conservatives have already won over almost all the Liberals
they could. As a result, 70% of potential switchers to the Conservatives are
actually NDP voters. Among NDP voters who contemplate the possibility of
switching, 22% would switch to the Conservatives, 38% to the Liberals with the
rest split among the Greens (25%) and the Bloc (15%), as shown in table 2.
In keeping with the absence of a strong left-right divide, at least as many
Conservatives would switch to the NDP as the Liberals if indeed they switched,
as shown in table 2.
1.3. Campaign 2011 as a Double-Drama Election
In election campaigns, there are many types:
�� No-drama elections—the campaigns end up where they
started with nothing consequential happening in between;
�� Half-drama elections—the outcome changes over the
course of the campaign but polls predict accurately the
final outcome;
Wild Card—Possibly the Most Bizarre, Unstable,
Upside-Down Election since Confederation
www.compas.ca
6
�� Full-drama elections—either major changes take place
during the campaign itself or dramatic, unpredicted
changes take place in the last 48 hours. The 2004 federal
election was a classic example of the latter, a kind of
11th hour repentance with one-fourth of the electorate
changing its mind in the last 24 hours, largely going back
to the Liberals (http://www.compas.ca/040628-
GlobalTVEDayPollPart1-E.html).
The 2011 campaign threatens to be a double-drama election: huge midcampaign
changes involving the decline of the Bloc and the surpassing of the
Liberals by the NDP, followed by a high chance of major last minute changes.
1.4. Campaign 2011 as One of the Most Bizarre, Unstable, and
Upside-Down Elections since Confederation
The 2011 federal election will likely go down in Canadian history as one of
the most bizarre, unstable, and upside-down elections since Confederation:
�� Bizarre—because Canada’s historic, natural governing
party, the Liberal party of Laurier, Mackenzie King, St.
Laurent, Pearson, Trudeau, and Chretien, faces the
prospect not just of being shut out of power again but of
being relegated to third, “also-ran” position in a campaign
without cleavage issues;
�� Unstable—because, on the eve of voting, the volatile
NDP vote could surge to 36% because many non-NDP
voters tell COMPAS that they are thinking of switching to
the NDP in the next few hours, or NDP support could fall
back to as low as 20% given the number of NDP voters
who are unfamiliar with the local candidate of their party.
Non-NDP voters are about 50% more likely than NDP
Wild Card—Possibly the Most Bizarre, Unstable,
Upside-Down Election since Confederation
www.compas.ca
7
voters to know the name of the local candidate for whom
they plan to vote; and
�� Upside-down because the historic middle class or
bourgeois bastion of the Liberal-Conservative
establishment, university-educated voters, have become
the fortress of the anti-establishment NDP, while less
educated and hence lower status Canadians are set to
become the stronghold—the impregnable fortress—of the
Conservatives. The election is also upside-down because
the NDP will do far less well in its birthplace, the west, or
in the NDP-supporting union heartland of Ontario than it
will do in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, from which the
party was shut out for generations.
2.0. Predicting the Vote
2.1. If Nothing Changes—A Conservative Majority with the NDP
as Official Opposition
If voters do not change their minds and NDP voters turn out to vote in the
same proportion as everyone else, the Harper Conservatives will likely be
sufficiently far ahead of the Liberals and NDP to form a majority (see table 2.1)..
http://compas.ca/data/110501-FedElectionPoll-EPCB.pdf
1.1. Confirmatory Finding—Conservative Victory
As detailed below, this new COMPAS poll confirms the preponderance of
findings from the polls of most firms, including COMPAS’ early in the campaign,
that the Conservatives are en route to victory. As in our previous poll, we
anticipate a large Conservative victory, virtually large enough to assure a
majority—46% vs. 26% for the NDP, as detailed below in section 2.1.
1.2. New Finding # 1—the NDP Has By Far the Most to Fear and
the Most to Hope for
This national COMPAS poll focuses on voter stability.1 Two dramatic
findings are that as many as 61% of all voters say that they may change their
mind and that the NDP vote is especially unpredictable. Far more than any
other party’s support, the NDP support is capable of both a major collapse and
a sizeable further increase depending upon what goes through the minds of
voters during the last few hours and depending also on the strength of the NDP
machine.
The NDP share of the vote, currently 26%, could
�� fall to 20% if the party fails to overcome its special
challenge, that its supporters are far less familiar with
their local NDP candidate than are Conservative and
Liberals voters with their candidates, as detailed below,
or
�� Climb to 36% if all voters who say they could switch to
the NDP in the last hours actually do.
The NDP vote is by far the least stable among the major parties with 79% of
NDP supporters saying that they could change their minds, as shown in table
1.2a. If any party is disappointed on election day, it could be the NDP given that
the overwhelming majority of its supporters say that they could change their
mind.
The Conservatives have the most to rejoice about because their vote is the
most loyal. The high loyalty or stability of the Conservative vote is remarkable
given that the Conservatives are at a high point, attracting normally Liberal
voters in large numbers. Yet, even the Conservative vote is not absolutely loyal
or stable, only loyal or stable compared to the others.
In keeping with the proportion of NDP voters who say that they could
change their minds is a high proportion of NDP voters who do not know the
names of the local candidates for whom they intend to cast ballots.
Conservative and Liberal voters are about 50% more likely to know the names
of the candidates they plan to vote for than are NDP voters, as shown in table
1.2b.
Admittedly, voters do not need to know before Monday the names of the
local candidates for whom they intend to cast ballots, but knowledge of these
names is a potential indicator of stability of commitment.
1.2. New Finding # 2—Conservatives Would Actually Gain from
a NDP Faltering
While political scientists and journalists often talk about parties being on a
left-right spectrum, voters are not behaving that way in a uniform or predictable
way, as shown in table 2. An NDP retreat would see its supporters going in all
directions, including towards the Conservatives. Though more NDPers would
switch to the Liberals than Conservatives, the Conservatives are so far ahead
of the Liberals that the Conservatives could well benefit more in seats from an
NDP faltering, given our electoral system.
In practice, the Conservatives have already won over almost all the Liberals
they could. As a result, 70% of potential switchers to the Conservatives are
actually NDP voters. Among NDP voters who contemplate the possibility of
switching, 22% would switch to the Conservatives, 38% to the Liberals with the
rest split among the Greens (25%) and the Bloc (15%), as shown in table 2.
In keeping with the absence of a strong left-right divide, at least as many
Conservatives would switch to the NDP as the Liberals if indeed they switched,
as shown in table 2.
1.3. Campaign 2011 as a Double-Drama Election
In election campaigns, there are many types:
�� No-drama elections—the campaigns end up where they
started with nothing consequential happening in between;
�� Half-drama elections—the outcome changes over the
course of the campaign but polls predict accurately the
final outcome;
Wild Card—Possibly the Most Bizarre, Unstable,
Upside-Down Election since Confederation
www.compas.ca
6
�� Full-drama elections—either major changes take place
during the campaign itself or dramatic, unpredicted
changes take place in the last 48 hours. The 2004 federal
election was a classic example of the latter, a kind of
11th hour repentance with one-fourth of the electorate
changing its mind in the last 24 hours, largely going back
to the Liberals (http://www.compas.ca/040628-
GlobalTVEDayPollPart1-E.html).
The 2011 campaign threatens to be a double-drama election: huge midcampaign
changes involving the decline of the Bloc and the surpassing of the
Liberals by the NDP, followed by a high chance of major last minute changes.
1.4. Campaign 2011 as One of the Most Bizarre, Unstable, and
Upside-Down Elections since Confederation
The 2011 federal election will likely go down in Canadian history as one of
the most bizarre, unstable, and upside-down elections since Confederation:
�� Bizarre—because Canada’s historic, natural governing
party, the Liberal party of Laurier, Mackenzie King, St.
Laurent, Pearson, Trudeau, and Chretien, faces the
prospect not just of being shut out of power again but of
being relegated to third, “also-ran” position in a campaign
without cleavage issues;
�� Unstable—because, on the eve of voting, the volatile
NDP vote could surge to 36% because many non-NDP
voters tell COMPAS that they are thinking of switching to
the NDP in the next few hours, or NDP support could fall
back to as low as 20% given the number of NDP voters
who are unfamiliar with the local candidate of their party.
Non-NDP voters are about 50% more likely than NDP
Wild Card—Possibly the Most Bizarre, Unstable,
Upside-Down Election since Confederation
www.compas.ca
7
voters to know the name of the local candidate for whom
they plan to vote; and
�� Upside-down because the historic middle class or
bourgeois bastion of the Liberal-Conservative
establishment, university-educated voters, have become
the fortress of the anti-establishment NDP, while less
educated and hence lower status Canadians are set to
become the stronghold—the impregnable fortress—of the
Conservatives. The election is also upside-down because
the NDP will do far less well in its birthplace, the west, or
in the NDP-supporting union heartland of Ontario than it
will do in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, from which the
party was shut out for generations.
2.0. Predicting the Vote
2.1. If Nothing Changes—A Conservative Majority with the NDP
as Official Opposition
If voters do not change their minds and NDP voters turn out to vote in the
same proportion as everyone else, the Harper Conservatives will likely be
sufficiently far ahead of the Liberals and NDP to form a majority (see table 2.1)..
http://compas.ca/data/110501-FedElectionPoll-EPCB.pdf
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