post election seeding intentions

[wmoebis]

Has your seeding intentions changed since the election? With the possibility of access open markets before end of crop year.

[SASKFARMER3]

1000 Durum
3000 HRS
3500 Canola
1500 Peas
1000 Wont seed because cant get to. Flooded out roads etc.

[groundspeed]

Week to ten days before we can seed here yet. Earlier canola varieties, Feed barley and oats.Cwb wont matter much this year but i still hope for choice.

[btjadenlepp]

Saskfarmer, if it turns out that more than
1000 acres can't get seeded, in what order
do you abandon those other acres?

[BTOfarmallll]

SuperSask seems everytime you post yer acres, they git bigger & BIGGER. Now yer 10,000 acres???? Ya Right........

[Wheatking]

Its the internet, the bigger you are the more important you are. Heck BTO maybe someday on the internet you can be a BTO, just like the rest of em, and bask in your self importance.

[Braveheart]

This is a good question even in regards to marketing options. What do we do about FPCs? Take some through the board as prices are not bad right now, or take our chances on some kind of opt out provision that might appear? What about malt barley? Has it become suddenly more attractive if the rules change Aug. 1?

[BTOfarmallll]

Already am a BTO wit or witout the Internet. So whats yer point WheatQueen????

[charliep]

Braveheart

Nothing has really changed for the 2011/12 crop year until there is change to legislation. I would use the same criteria for making fpc and cashplus in my marketing plan today as I would have a month ago. That is, judge the decision based on the merits of price and fit with your marketing plan. If you have the opinion things will change on August 1 (no idea so can't comment), then I would be more tempted to use alternatives going to the futures market directly on wheat contracts. Options strategies (puts) or sell futures/use an EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physicals). Still exposed to currency risk and to some extent basis. In a new world, basis will be the biggest question which I will admit to having no answer to. That is, going from a basis that relates to a relationship between the PPO and the pooled payment versus a basis that relates a cash sale to customer and a purchase price from a farmer.

Topping all this off in the real world will be current days to start/finishing seeding and the likely crop you are able to get into the ground. Politics is one thing but reality in your business is quite another.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I bet the CWB wheat basis gets better... do futures only may be a prudent strategy... if you can stand working with the CWB.

If not... wait and hedge on paper and market physical grain later to best basis and delivery terms.

This is how the Aussie gets best value from past recollection.

[charliep]

Signing a futures only is a tactic that gives me nightmares. You have a commitment to deliver to a company/organization but no idea on terms.

I would keep my decision to a fixed price contract (flat price) or basis.

During the election campaign, the main commitment was to act on the barley plebiscite. Until yesterday, I didn't see potential for new crop changes to wheat. What members of the supply chain need (with the CWB a vital partner) is decisions about what will happen going forward. These decisions need to be quick given you as farmers are in the middle of planting (or at least hoping to) the 2011 crop. Grain companies and other members of the supply chain also need to prepare for something different. Customers need assurances.

[SASKFARMER3]

Canola and peas will each lose 500 acres if the
weather doesn't change. Bto it's spring take 160
x 62 = just under for simple math. Maybe
Manitoba schools don't have math and your bto
is 1.0000 acres.