Canola??

[furrowtickler]

The traders must finally realize what most of you have been saying for two weeks.

[Hopperbin]

Futures price is somewhat dependant on bean oil and meal perhaps also a basis improvement coming.

[charliep]

Some charts for interest.

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=RSX11"]November canola[/URL]

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a href="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=ZLZ11">Dec ember beanoil</a>

Would look at the open interest.

Also just curious what you mean by traders (commericials who want to buy canola at some point, speculators, funds) and what their action should be (I assume get long). What should a farmer do? Buy to replace existing sales?

[Hopperbin]

Funny even local feed mill is getting loads of wheat from 3 or more hours drive away some of them loads. Does not make sense the wheat should not come from the west very far, a storm brewing?

[charliep]

Rats.

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=ZLZ11"]December beanoil[/URL]

[charliep]

Just to add to my embarassment, the standard chart includes volume - not open interest. You can add open interest in the charting tool selection at the bottom.

[furrowtickler]

O would assume answer D - all the above

[charliep]

Would note the spreads between months. still a slight inverse on July Nov but has narrowed through the spring.

No traction here (no pun intended) but the dip did provide an opportunity to buy calls if you had forward sold new crop and now are concerned about seeding progress/ability to get a crop.

[furrowtickler]

Just got a text from ADM lloyd - there lookin. Offering premiums as seeding is in full swing. I think they will be sweeping the bins in two weeks.

[charliep]

Actually a fair bit of canola in the system according to CGC grain stats weekly.

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2010-11/week-semaine-39/gsw-shg-1-eng.htm"]grain stats weekly[/URL]

Things will be tight by the summer but not new information. New crop planting progress and yields are the focus now - watch for canola future to go the carry.

Other factors to follow:

China factor: Will they maintain buying pace oilseeds?

Midwest seeding delays: Less corn/more soybeans?

Seeding progress western Canada and acreage shifts: A few 20 degree days will mean progress Alberta and west side of Saskatchewan. Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba can speak for themselves. Suspect canola will be the crop that gets seeded first when the opportunities present themselves. May not be 19 mln acres but 18 is a good bet (assuming some cooperation mother nature).

Some will ask what I am smoking but kinda like barley this year.