Hey Charlie, Feed Barley vs Feed Wheat

[FarmForProfit]

looking at how late it is and how wet it
still is I think the rest of my crop
will be feed whether its wheat or barley
(malt isn't worth the hassle).

If/when the CWB becomes optional will
feed barley rise in price?

Does the feed barley market have any
potential this year?

When will it stop raining, how many
GGD's till the first frost, what lottery
ticket numbers should I use this week.

Thanks (I'm tired of this weather, can
you tell?)

[boarderbloke]

charliep here's another. What is the standard price ratio between feed barley and corn, all things relevant? It seems to me that even though feed barley prices are high, they are still nowhere near feed corn prices in the USA. And yes I know about ethanol, but those feeding US corn are competing with ethanol and so should feed barley. "The tide should rise for all", and I think barley is still too cheap.
Also, have you ever heard of ethanol plants using barley in Canada?
(PS, yes I'm watching MGE WHT today, smiling even though I've been stuck twice seeding!) Still up 25 as I write, thinking to pull the pin on my JULY 11 FPC. especally if it drops any lower.

[charliep]

My two bits:


If/when the CWB becomes optional will
feed barley rise in price? Suspect will improve prices. Grain companies will provide better price signals around export opportunities. The interaction between the domestic market and the export market will become a lot more seamless. Finally, US opportunities for feed barley will become easier and more likely to occur. Increased busines opportunities and resulting competition is likely to increase price.

Does the feed barley market have any
potential this year? I think it does. Depending on how seeding ends and the actual number of acres/yields, barley supplies will become extremely tight in the coming year. Your wild card will be wheat again - late seeding equals more potential feed quality. Will Mother nature give wheat a chance?

When will it stop raining, how many
GGD's till the first frost, what lottery ticket numbers should I use this week. Not sure on acronym GGD (good growing days or perhaps DGD/degree growing days). If either of these, I likely have as a good a chance of giving you the lottery number. From the last few years, each year is unique with no set pattern.

On corn versus barley value, they should have similar to corn a 5 % premium. Corn has higher energy (similar to feed wheat) but lower protein. Value in rations will come out in formulation. Yes, western Canada (Alberta at least) have had cheaper feed grain prices relative to the US. Declining livestock numbers/feed demand and plentiful feed wheat with limited export opportunities/a transportation system that was plugged. That would lead to another discussion.

Perhaps what I don't understand is why more feed wheat didn't/isn't moving south to replace $7/bu corn. The biggest benefit of a open market will be the opportunity to arbitrage US markets on a load by load basis without all the baggage of buy backs, export licences, how it fits the overall CWB sales plan, impact on pooled prices, etc., etc, etc. A sale will be made on its own merit based on the decisions of a buyer in the US and a seller in Canada. Not a lot of complexity.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, the California dairy industry used to feed a lot of barley. Likely many here who are a lot smarter than I am on livestock feeding but it seems to me that higher fibre in barley increases butter fat in milk. Canola meal is a good source of protein (by pass protein).

The beginning of the end of barley in dairy rations was cheap corn that could be provided on a regular basis in unit trains and inability to supply feed barley on a consistent and regular basis (inability to manage logistics).

I hope that the opening up of the feed barley market will be the insentive to increase trading for Western Barley Futures. That is, help meet the needs of a barley that will be doing everything from filling boats for off shore markets when appropriate (25,000 tonne ones for Japan or 75,000 tonne ones for Saudi Arabia), unit trains to the California dairy industry or "B" train activity to a local feed lot/mill.

A healthy malt barley market will also help a lot.

[charliep]

On the question of barley in ethanol, is happening in the US.

See the following project that has been going on in Alberta. Barley does have potential as biofuel crop.

[URL="http://www.wbga.org/bbop-08-2008.pdf"]BBOP[/URL]