Feeding 9 bln people by 2050

[BTOfarmallll]

Put yer Money where yer Mouth is.......

http://www.popoffsets.com/ - Population offsets

[burnt]

It would be interesting to know how many well-fed progeny bear the genes of Thomas Robert Malthus. Undoubtedly, far more than he predicted.

[begood]

When you understand arithmetic; doubling rates; effect of rate of growth; logarithms; logic; statistics then you will know what my points are.

But there are so few humans that can comprehend those facts. So you wildly attack those ideas. Well guess what. One might as well be blunt with such people. Its futile to try to "convert" you;; but its important to point out that you are either stupid or ignorant or misinformed or naive or all those things or more. You do a disservice to the human race and should be held accountable.

[begood]

Here's "cottons" link again. The speaker is old but smart, very meek, well spoken, well seasoned and watch the series. If you have a brain and can use it you will be impressed. If not then please tell uspresents compelling arguments. He invites listeners to show where he might be in error. Please tell everyonewhere he is wrong. First you'd have to watch it;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY



and cYou'll be impresses and

[begood]

Perhaps charliep could critically review the youtube videos referred to above; and report back to agri-ville.


This isn't a matter of being to controversial to have an opinion on. Put you reputations on the line; because its the central point that all other production and economics questions are focused around.

[charliep]

The rule of 70 ( I have use 72) works. It will tell you how long it takes to
double your money on an investment. Invest at 6 % and it takes 12 years
to double your money. 24 % and it takes 3 years. A world population that
is growing at 2 % will double every 36 years.

For your point, I don't think world population is necessary growing
exponentially but more linearly. Things like more use of birth control and
aging populations are reducing birth rates in the developed world.

Regardless of how you calculate, world population is growing - just a
discussion about how fast. Improving diets/more meat, urbanization,
non food uses are also increasing crop consumption. I have an
interesting graph that relates world population growth, crop production
and adoption of new technology (increased use fertilizer, hybrid crops,
reduced tillage/better seeding technology, introduction biotech, etc. Will
be interesting the next technology that jumps crop production over the
next 40 years. I think will be around water use/ability to adapt to
variable weather/climate but that is only a guess.

[burnt]

begood proves best that the limits to arrogance have yet to be established . . .

[FarmRanger]

Some people are good at math, but not so good
with biology.
"Birth rate
Death rate
Sex ratio of offspring
Age of first reproduction
Life span"
If none of these things change, then we would be
over-run. For those that think our birth rate is too
high, in Canada we need immigration just to
maintain our population. Something to think
about.

[begood]

My bet still is that not even a handful of people have watched the video. If you did; what do you think about the points raised?

[begood]

"A world population that
is growing at 2 % will double every 36 years.

For your point, I don't think world population is necessary growing
exponentially but more linearly".

Your reply adds to the discussion charles. But with linear growth there should be 2% more for each of 36 years and end up with a 72% increase. You agree that we are looking at doubling numbers in 36 years and that is a logarithmic rate; not a linear one. (the difference between 72% and 100% growth) That what gets us into trouble in the long run.
Here's proof in a simple example. You agree to work for a farmer for one month. The first day he will pay you 1 cent. Each following day for the month he will pay you twice as much as the previous day ie. two cents for the second days work and 4 cents for the third day etc. Sounds like its going to be a bargain for the employer. You will be suprised to find the astronomical sum that is owed for that month's work. That's the power of doubling and any growth rate above zero percent. It isn't sustainable in the long run.
And growth is insane once you have reached the point where growth is already causing problems that aren't currently able to be adequately handled.

[begood]

Charlie The only time the growth looks "linear" is when you plot the data on logarithmic paper and get a near straight line fit to the data. That "Straight line" doesn't have anything to do with linear growth.
I certainly stand to be corrected; but if correct then it would be helpful to not have to keep arguing this important basis of fact.

[charliep]

When I look at a population graph, the growth line looks fairly stable. Haven't done the math but I suspect that world population is growing at a decreasing rate - not exponential or compounded. An example for 20 % of the world population is China's one child policy. The professor talks about this in his presentation. As others have highlighted, you also have to do the analysis of declining birth rates and reduced mortality/an aging population.

Regardless, more food is needed. Add in the non food uses of crops (biofuels, etc.) and the trend is the need to produce more.