Nearby corn had a high of 7.99.6 today. Closed sharply off the highs and didn't move much for the day overall. Nearby is 75 cents above Dec. Will it break 8 bucks?
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Gotta wonder about the impact of $8.00 on one of the main users - livestock. The price of corn has already taken over $100 off of the price of yearlings sold this spring.
Can we turn the whole corn crop into ethanol?
Every month out until Dec. 2014 on the corn futures is over $6. Right now a producer can lock in $1000/ac for new crop. Wow. Unprecedented.
Interesting times.
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A lot of the demand pull right now is from ethanol. 40% of the corn crop is headed to the distillery now. More than exports. Corn and feed wheat are basically substitutable for ethanol purposes, and somewhat for feeding as well. Barley doesn't benefit from that substitutability. It's easier to feed corn/wheat blends than to chase a thin barley market. The big feedlot guys around here want to stick with one ration for months and want to be able to hedge it.
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Brian,
If innovation... transparency... free and unrestricted market subsitutional ability is hindered: the market simply will not be there for barley. This is a multi-year... marketing and R and D project, that in no way can be interupted by arbitrary and caprecious restrictions on supply. CWB export license restrictions doom any grain to medriocrity and a residual supply position. Premium prices are seldom attained... from such a product.
The Western Grain Marketing Panel knew this.
It is a crime what Minister Goodale did to the grain industry in western Canada. Canola is proof that the CWB is simply wrong on the single desk.
Growing a market and a supply chain... will alway produce more premium opportunities... than restricting supply and forcing subsitution.
OBERG and crew... do not have a clue. Just like when he ran Alberta Wheat Pool into the ground.
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Tom, I agree whole heartedly with your assessments about the board. I don't believe the CWB captures any premiums for farmers. I grow very little board grains as a result, and there was a good stretch there (pre BSE) when I grew no board grains. I do believe, however, the cons were stupid in not using the planned removal of the CWB as a bargaining chip to gain secure access to american markets.
I think there are significant opportunities in a post CWB world for growers agressive enough to seek them out, but changing nothing on your farm, and expecting buyers to beat down your door for your product doesn't make sense either. What if barley doesn't follow corn post CWB? Who will be the villain then?
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brian,
Markets are nourished, grown... demand for a product is planned for... then the supply MUST be met for the value to consistantly prosper both the grower and consumer.
Corn itself is a very good example of this.
Huge: political, R and D, productivity gains, and supply increases has grown this corn market. Virtually all of what has happened flys directly against CWB marketing principals. Instead the CWB seeks to provide less... at a higher price... somehow with the belief they can extort a premium according to the PR it tells growers.
As you correctly stated... those who grow markets... are looking for more volume... capacity... efficiency... stable transparent prices... that have a low political risk of interference hurting the supply chain and consumer.
I have not seen the CWB market development system sucessfully launch and grow a market for a single new product they are responsible to provide. Hard White Wht is a disaster. Winter Wheat marketing is a joke. Extra strong has nearly dried up to nothing. CPS is close to CWRS... and the CWB wants to discount market it.
Feed fits nowhere... so they do not care about it.
If grower organisations don't effectvely increase quality, produtivity... and supply... barley is a marginal crop at best.
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this won't pass but maybe the honeymoon is over.
As Republicans Move to Nix Ethanol Subsidies, USDA Pushes ‘Flex Fuel Pumps’
Monday, June 13, 2011
By Susan Jones
(CNSNews.com) – Senate Republicans are moving to repeal all subsidies, mandates and tariffs on ethanol, the corn-based fuel additive.
A vote is expected Tuesday afternoon on Sen. Tom Coburn’s (R-Okla.) amendment repealing the ethanol subsidy.
In addition, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) announced that he will introduce an amendment to repeal the renewable fuels standard that requires ethanol to be blended with gasoline.
The Obama administration, meanwhile, is urging gas station owners to apply for federal grants to purchase and install pumps that deliver fuel with a high ethanol content.
‘Bad policies’
“Washington's ethanol policies are a case study in why government attempting to pick winners and losers is a bad deal for taxpayers,” DeMint said. Americans are being forced to subsidize corn ethanol, which "drives up the cost of gas, lowers gas mileage, harms automobile engines, releases carcinogens into the air, and drives up food prices which harms the poor," he added.
"Unfortunately, Washington's bad ethanol policies don't end with just subsidies and tariffs; we must also repeal the mandate, which my amendment would do.”
Sen. Coburn says his amendment repealing the ethanol tax credit and tariff would save $3 billion for the remainder of this year and $6 billion annually.
“The days of placing spending programs in the tax code and giving them holy status are over,” Coburn said in a news release. “Eliminating the ethanol tax earmark and tariff would be a big step toward restoring fiscal sanity in Washington. Ethanol is bad economic policy, bad energy policy and bad environmental policy.”
A taxpayer advocacy group said the DeMint amendment “fills in the gaps” left by the Coburn amendment.
Americans for Tax Reform opposed the Coburn amendment on its own, because it eliminates a tax credit, which ATR views as increasing the net tax burden on Americans. But because the DeMint amendment also would permanently eliminate the death tax, ATR said it can now go along with Coburn’s amendment – but only in combination with DeMint’s.
“Our goal has been to repeal the ethanol tax credit, tariffs and the mandate totally --without raising taxes,” ATR said. “The Coburn amendment, combined with the DeMint Amendment, accomplishes this longstanding goal.”
Flex-fuel pumps
Banking on a future that includes ethanol, the U.S. Agriculture Department has set the goal of deploying 10,000 flexible fuel pumps at gas stations around the nation by 2015.
USDA is now offering grants to help eligible applicants purchase and install biofuel pumps that “offer Americans more renewable energy options.”
According to the Energy Department, most gasoline sold in this country is 10 percent ethanol, but flexible fuel vehicles can take a blend that’s 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline.
The funding for flex-fuel pumps and other energy-producing and energy-saving projects is available through USDA’s Rural Energy for America Program (REAP).
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