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Ethanol Takes a Hit... what does the Senate bill mean?

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    Ethanol Takes a Hit... what does the Senate bill mean?

    Monday, June 20, 2011


    Weekly News Highlights

    Volatile Times — Conflict makes news and in the business of agriculture, there has been no shortage of conflict. With tight grain stocks and a slow start to the 2011 growing season, the markets are consistently chaotic. The Red River Farm Network is also seeing that level of pandemonium in Washington, DC. For the US Senate, attitudes about ethanol appear to be shifting and government support for the renewable fuel is on shaky ground. In the House, agriculture spending was in the cross-hairs during the debate over agricultural appropriations last week. The Red River Farm Network is committed to delivering the news impacting your business, complete with market and farm policy analysis.

    Ethanol Takes a Hit — Two days after the Senate rejected an attempt to eliminate the ethanol tax incentive, the Upper Chamber reversed itself. With a 73 to 27 vote, lawmakers decided to end the 45-cent-per-gallon blender’s tax credit and the 54-cent-per-gallon tariff on imported ethanol. New Jersey Senator Robert Menendez was in the majority, saying the federal government delivers unprecedented support to the ethanol industry. In addition, Menendez says billions of dollars are also spent to subsidize corn production. “So, in a time of fiscal constraint, we simply cannot afford to prop up an industry with such enormous supports, and these supports are not just costing taxpayers money, but they are also causing food prices to rise and harming our environment.” South Dakota Senator John Thune argued his colleagues singled out the ethanol industry, punishing it by changing the rules in the middle of the game. In practical terms, Thune said the Senate vote was largely symbolic. “It’s unconstitutional. It will be blue slipped in the House of Representatives, and therefore, it makes absolutely no sense for us to be having this vote in the first place." While the blender’s credit and tariffs took a hit, lawmakers rejected a measure that would cut spending for ethanol infrastructure.

    A Setback for Agriculture — Reflecting on the Senate vote, the National Corn Growers Association said petty politics trumped prudent policy. NCGA President Bart Schott, who farms at Kulm, North Dakota, described the vote as a big setback for agriculture. “Remember at the end of the year when we went for a one-year extension of VEETC, we promised reform, and Thune and Klobuchar did introduce a really good reform plan and we were kind of hoping that that would suffice; we’re pretty displeased.” Ethanol supporters will now regroup and strive to protect this industry. Growth Energy says the amendment threatened the only viable alternative to foreign oil. The American Coalition for Ethanol says the Senate bill has no chance of becoming law, but it does serve as a distraction for the industry.

    #2
    More from RRFN

    ADM Exec Downplays Impact on Ethanol Industry — ADM Vice Chairman John Rice told investors at a conference in Paris that ADM would not be hurt by an end to ethanol subsidies, so long as the government takes steps to increase access to E15. Rice said ADM, like most in the industry, expects the government to ultimately cut the ethanol blenders’ credit. Because ethanol producers are taking corn and selling ethanol to refiners, Rice said ethanol margins should remain intact. If the credit is removed, Rice said maybe the price of corn should come down.

    No Big Impact on Feed Prices, Says Meyer — While the action in the Senate sent a shockwave through agriculture circles, Paragon Economics President Steve Meyer does not expect much impact on corn prices. “If A, the bill that passed the Senate goes through and ends immediately or if B, they just wait until December and let it expire, as scheduled, you’re taking away two things that have a big impact on how much tax revenue we get out of this thing, but have really not been a big factor in corn prices or driving the ethanol business." Meyer says $100-plus oil is a bigger factor for ethanol demand. "Even if you take the subsidy and the tariff away, the mandate is still there and it goes up another 600 million gallons next year." Meyer says the government’s policy for ethanol didn’t make much sense to him, but ”it’s politics and finally the politics are changing the other way, but I don’t think they’re going to move the market very much.”

    Big Cuts — The House has passed the ag appropriations bill, which cuts $2.6 billion in discretionary programs for nutrition, research, conservation and rural development. The debate centered around paying cotton farmers in Brazil, while cutting domestic nutrition programs for the poor. An amendment to end payments to Brazil passed, which could spur Brazil to retaliate with sanctions on $800 million worth of US goods. The biggest conservation cut was $350 million to EQIP. The House defeated two amendments, to reduce the farm payment limit and to reduce the Adjusted Gross Income Limit, a victory of sorts for Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas. “Arbitrarily changing eligibility requirements for farm programs outside of the Farm Bill is irresponsible; it seriously undermines farmers’ ability to make long-term plans and investments.” The Appropriations bill also stops USDA from implementing changes to the GIPSA rule. The House eliminated all funding for ethanol blender pumps and storage facilities, as well as USDA’s Know Your Farmer, Know Your Food program.

    Under Assault — After the House vote on the agriculture spending bill, Agriculture Committee ranking member Collin Peterson said “agriculture is under assault from Congress.” The Minnesota congressman said this bill makes disproportionate cuts to agriculture. During discussion over proposed new caps on adjusted gross income for farm program payments, Peterson said the plan pulls the rug out from farmers in the middle of the farm bill. "Why do we have an adjusted gross income limit on farmers? Why don't we have it on everybody? If it is such a good idea, why don't we have anyone who gets money from the government be subject to the AGI. If it's good enough for farmers then anybody who makes $250,000 shouldn't get anything from the government." If Congress continues to chip away at farm programs, Peterson said farmers will be left without an adequate safety net, which could potentially cost the government more money.

    Comment


      #3
      Well if the US is to return to solvency
      then ethanol will take a hit. I wonder
      how much will be produced if this subsidy
      disappears. I think around one third of
      today's production will remain.

      Comment


        #4
        13 trillion reasons to end the subsidy. Trade talks in general should start to become quite interesting as tariff and non tariff trade barriers get short funded. Exciting times.

        Comment


          #5
          I don't quite understand this?
          They cut the ethanol subsidy....but never cut the blending mandates...how does that work if US ethanol plants become uneconomical?
          Does it mean more ethanol comes in from offshore? Does it mean some oil must sit in storage because there isn't enough ethanol for the blend? Will this increase the price of fuel?
          If cutting the ethanol subsidy forces more corn into the food/animal feed market will that lower the price of corn dramatically?
          Will the other generous US subsidies for corn (and a reduced market) produce a glut of food corn on the world market?
          Will a glut of cheap corn (and perhaps rising fuel costs) benifit or hurt Canadian feed wheat and barley?

          Comment


            #6
            Yup, the American farmers
            have enjoying some pretty good subsidies these last few years . Actually these subsidies have helped to drive up the price of a lot of stuff we farmers need to operate. Truth be known large grain outfits and business interests were actually lobbying for them on behalf of the American agricultural industry ,hm mm I wonder why ?
            Here in Canada our Ag programs are a far cry from what is going on across the 49Th.We Canadians because of certain fiscal policies of past governments have been careful not to print too many$$$$ or have we ?

            What is our made in Canada food policy ? What about our sovereignty ? Are we able to think and act for ourselves or are we captive to some sort of political/economic influence that in the long run will undermine who we are as Canadians?

            Comment


              #7
              Ok Prairie Farmer explain yourself, We need the likes of FNA to bring down the price of chemicals and fertilizers.
              And to top it off where the hell do you farm, lala land????

              Comment


                #8
                One other thing I would like to see Harper do. Make it easier to bring in certain products from the USA when retailers up here are so far out of line on prices?
                Let me explain that: I was in the market for a 6 ft. 3 PH rototiller. I priced a King Kutter out at an Edmonton machinery store. $3150.
                The same roto tiller was $1800 from the manufacturer in Minnisota. $89 freight to Calgary. So I fired off an email ordering one......sorry we don't ship to Canada!
                Last week I was in Kalispell Montana. The same rototiller was $2095....unfortunately I had the car...but will be going back in July, with the truck, to buy it.
                Also priced out some things at the Montana Farm store. 24D amine was about half the price of Alberta.
                Most livestock vet supplies were quite a bit cheaper.
                Maybe the federal government could look into how come we're getting ripped off in Canada?

                Comment

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