Stuff to Watch Tomorrow

[charliep]

Statistics Canada report - Numbers will be one thing but watch the written as to how statistics Canada handled the acres not seeded when the survey was conducted.

CWB pool return outlook. Will be down but the question is how much. I use the fixed price contract values as a proxy. Early June 1CWRS 13.5 FPC values - around the $365/tonne port. FPC today - $316/tonne port. Suspect PRO down $15 to $20/tonne tomorrow.

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/110623/dq110623b-eng.htm"]seeded acreage estimate[/URL]

Numbers will be reviewed and potentially revised in the July/early August survey (read text).

[cottonpicken]

After that mind numbing fomc meeting and the action
before and after and right now,what i thought may
happen could be happening..

[charliep]

I'll let others fight over the canola number. My highlight would be the barley number - highlights challenges ahead in feeding our livestock industry. Will be lots of hay. Good pasture will take some of the stress. How much feed wheat (old and new crop).

[charliep]

CWB June PRO is out. Surprised that the PRO were maintained in the face of price declines in the futures markets.

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2010_20110623.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2010-11"]old crop PRO[/URL]

<a href="http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2011_20110623.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2011-12">new crop</a>

Will be interesting to see what happens to fixed price contracts/basis.

[cottonpicken]

So do you ever have an opinion?

[charliep]

FPC links (June 23).

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/fbpc-wheat-2011-mhrs-20110623.html"]1CWRS 13.5[/URL]

<a href="http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/fbpc-wheat-2011-khrw-20110623.html">1 CPS and CWRW</a>

<a href="http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/fbpc-wheat-2011-csrw-20110623.html">1SWS</a>

<a href="http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/fbpc-durum-2011-20110623.html">CWAD</a>

I do have an opinion on occassion. Wouldn't lock in any of the fixed price contracts. On the other hand, the PRO I think will prove high - needs to come down based on today information.

As a speculator would I buy wheat? Not yet but might consider at some point.