Stats Can BS again!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

1. Canola up
2. Durum Up
3. Oats Up.
Comment their is some seeding problems in Sask and Manitoba. Some HAHAHAHAHAHAH

Reality 19.6 canola is probably really 17.8.
Durum yea really its up ha ah ah ha ha ha.
Good one I intended to seed 1200 acres in April reality I seeded 480 Acres.
Canola I intended to seed close to 4000 acres in reality got 3000 in.
Oats I intended to get 640 acres in but reality is 276.
Most in our area is same or worse.
So unless the kindersley area is wall to wall canola Durum and Oats. Id guess stats Canada is a lb short of any useful info again.

[SASKFARMER3]

Oh yea the peas number is probably write on so one out of four way to go stats can.
Good up to march info. Or maybe January.
Why cant they be close like USDA. Borrow the Environment Canada super computer or one from the CWB to help out.
Peas on our farm are down hard by over 70% due to way to much moisture, peas don't like water.

[bucket]

If Wall would just threaten to have a recruitment drive in the states for new workers, you would think they would be happy to go back to work.

There is alot of people capable in the states to teach, do crop insurance, nurse etc. and would be happy with the benefits and the paycheck.

You gotta wonder if these people ever read or listen to the news about unemployment in the states.

Most in Saskatchewan should be happy to have a job.

[Wheatking]

What a waste of time and our money. This info
should be damn near automated as they enter it
into the computer as they take the info. The
probably have to go through it to identify
anomalies etc... But this should take a week at
most. We are living in the age of computers
and software that has the ability to compile this
info almost immediately, but stats can seems to
be in the age of the abicus(sp).

Get with it our don't bother.

[Wheatking]

What a waste of time and our money. This info
should be damn near automated as they enter it
into the computer as they take the info. The
probably have to go through it to identify
anomalies etc... But this should take a week at
most. We are living in the age of computers
and software that has the ability to compile this
info almost immediately, but stats can seems to
be in the age of the abicus(sp).

Get with it our don't bother.

[bucket]

Sorry. I have no idea how that comment got posted on this thread. Its on the right one about saskfarmer3 union thread.

[bucket]

Could one of the administrators take that post out. The comment is in the wrong thread. Thanks

[charliep]

Just curious on your thoughts of the difference between a 17.8 million acre and 19.6 million acre canola crop? I suspect most people in the industry will recognize that the statscan number is high with everyone trying to sort out the real number. The next set of questions will be around yields.

My canola crop size would be in the 13 to 14 million tonne range. Given crush capacity and export opportunity, I don't see a problem selling a crop of this size. Do you? Soybeans and oilseeds seem to be the everready bunny in sea of collapsing cereal prices which reflects the continued strong demand. Maybe I am missing something.

[charliep]

I am comfortable with the Alberta numbers.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie I'd be happy with albertas numbers to it
probably close but Saskatchewan and Manitoba
have huge problems. I seeded this year every
quarter but not flooded ground. Well since the
5inch drop last week from Regina to NE guess
what (as I type this stuck in bolting canola field)
were loosing ground on top of last years due too
much water. And guess what it's going to por
again this weekend or tonight. All I'm saying is
why useless bs info over and over and over.
Where is leadership to call this group useless.
Demand is nice but you and I both know this will
cause price drop in markets(oh it's happening as
we speak coincidence)!
Just plain gov BS. Tractors here!

[bucket]

The lord gave analysts a brain, its beyond me why they haven't learned to use it.

North Dakota is drowned out, SE Saskatchewan is drowned out, the heat hasn't come to make these crops grow so if it does it will be at the worst time.

And yet, production is going up and acres are up. Most guys around here were lucky to get 120 acres out of a quarter. Sure, they are 100 per cent seeded but the acres are not there. Well, unless they are going to claim 160 to get the yield loss.

Either way the numbers don't add up.

Maybe having the market drop creates demand but the cupboards will be bare the next time they come knocking. Then what?

Flax acres are out to lunch. The SE didn't get seeded. The traditional area for that crop. Manitoba is a write off. And the northern tier states are struggling.

How does anyone with a brain write off 20 million plus acres of prime production land in North America and say things are rosy.

[charliep]

Blaming the wrong guys. Analsyts don't trade much. Players who are buying or selling everyday set prices.

From an old life, did crop reports for GMS/UGG 15 ish years ago. Followed a disciplined survey process (not perfect but as best could be done). Used to get crapped starting with trading area the next day and all the way to farmers (quite often 6 months after the fact). The life of this survey was at the outside 2 days in the market and I would argue more likely could be measured in minutes. When I reviewed results 6 months after fact, the surveys were surprising accurate.

Just curious. Futures market open interest rising or falling? Implications?

Suspect what is happening in the market today has nothing to do with Canada and strangely, only marginally what is going on with crop market fundamentals (bigger economy issues).

[bucket]

Sorry charliep wasn't meant to offend you, and you are right it should be pointed at the traders.


Still makes no sense even if you throw the economics at it. People and animals gotta eat.

I don't believe this crop is getting bigger.

[charliep]

None. Just an interesting discussion.

We have to know there is lots of risk ahead (with risk being both opportunity and consequences of something bad).

What I can comment on here in Alberta (not close enough to Saskachewan or Manitoba other that listening here/watching the media) is that the moisture situation provides opportunity for an excellent crop. We need heat and a couple more showers in July. An open fall right into October would seal. Will it happen? Don't know.

[charliep]

If you believe what you have said, then patience will be a virtue. Markets will do whatever they do on daily basis. A farmer only needs to worry about the market the half to a dozen times a year when you are wanting to pull the trigger.

Had an interesting telephone conversation with US livestock analysts. The question is whether the US industry is sustainable with $7/bu corn. The answer was likely not. Similar question question whether $90/barrel oil could sustain $7/bu corn. Likely not.