What Is Getting Cleaned at Seed Cleaning Plants?

[charliep]

I always like to check out what is getting cleaned at local seed plants to get an idea of seeding intentions. At recent meetings in S. Alta., durum seemed to be the crop that was keeping seed plants busy. Westlock area farmers indicated peas were getting cleaned in their region (not necessarily more acres but were fairly certain about the number of acres they would seed).

The crops to watch in this front in the year ahead are ones driven by the domestic market (feed grains) and those where Canada is a major part of world trade (durum, milling oats, green pulses such as kabuli chickpeas, yellow peas, all green lentils, mustard, canary seed). All these crops are highly dependent on Canadian production with the likely scenario of feast or famine in the coming year (not enough produced/continued relatively high prices or too much/a return to lower prices).

What are your scenarios on upcoming production/impact on markets?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

It is sooo cooold that all the seed plants are frozen up?

The late crop in the north central Alberta area means that much roundup went on preharvest last fall.

We are expecting that more certified seed will be sold this spring on cereals because of this.

I am waiting for CWB PPO indicators before deciding what wheat and barleys to grow.

Cold weather has stopped thinking on spring seeding decisions for many!

[charliep]

Has there been enough snow in areas to improve top soil moisture outlook enough to increase acres of small seeded crops like canola, flaxseed, canary seed etc.? I realize we need spring rain (a combination of lots and timely).

An interesting comment is the crops you have least control over price in the coming year - wheat. If soil moisture conditions are adequate, I think farmers will reduce spring wheat acres in significantly. This will be more pronounced in Alberta where CPS grown for the domestic feed market will also increase reducing CWRS acres even more. A shift to durum in southern Alberta with CWRS again the loser.

An interesting year ahead.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Did I hear someone say something about global warming?

Sure too bad we couldn't get some of it around here about now!

I remember springs in the 1980's when it got up to 25 in March!

How will Koyoto affect the new federal policy framework on Agriculture from risk the management side?

Will there be compensation for the higher cost associated with Koyoto?

[TOM4CWB]

I did write plus 25, but I guess the " " doesn't come through!

[charliep]

We'll have to get others involved here Tom.

Not global warming but something to be watched over the next year is el nino. Temperatures in Pacific ocean are rising slowly - a good indicator of another round of el nino. This increases the probability of dryer conditions in S.E. Asia/Australia. In terms of N. America, it is more a factor of unstable weather. I would not change my marketing approach this year because of this (would still forward price some new crop).

I will leave the discussion on Kyoto to others. I would not hold my breath on getting government to pay. The longer term solution is some process for valuing carbon credits and having them tradeable. Farmers should be net contributors to carbon sequestration so this should held to pay extra costs.

[AdamSmith]

Charlie I think your after seeding intention info.

I'm growing Canola (RR and Clearfield), Yellow Peas, Winter wht was planted last fall, and barley.

No spring wht unless the winter wht acres need to be reseeded

Here's last yrs est. Gross Rev. per acre for my farm Winter Wht(NB). $228/acre, Canola $232/acre , Peas $220/acre, CWRS Wheat $125/acre.

Between fusarium and the CWB I see no reason to continue to bang my head against the wall and lose money with that crop. I'll try CWRS again when the CWB is voluntary and we have fusarium resistance, until then I look for more profitable alternatives.

From Manitoba AdamSmith

[AdamSmith]

Sticking to my rotation Peas, CWRS and Canola.

Gross per acre in 200l CWRS $275, Canola $355 and Peas $3l5. Rainfall was just in time deliveries as we had the driest spring that I have seen. This spring is looking about as dry to start, unless we get a good dump in April.

Have not grown barley for six years and will not again unless forced to by disease or a $5.00 price.

Agree with AdamSmith about the CWB control of our wheat market.

Lucking out in Alberta. The Kernel

[rodbradshaw]

Charlie
Sticking to CPS, feed barley , few peas and maybe some canola.
Malt barley is moving well in this area as well as CPS Wheats.

[crusher]

I'm sticking to my long term rotation of canola 30%, peas 20%, CPS 30%, HRS 20% with probably no barley (but might switch closer to seeding).

One of my market newsletters suggested there might be a good marketing opportunity for wheat movement in the coming year to China (I know we've all heard that the wheat bull is right around the corner). Anyways I was wondering, Charlie, what types of wheat they are likely to be after.

[charliep]

China has mostly bought 3CWRS and depending on the crop year, lower protein 1/2 CWRS (when I was at the CWB, 3CWRS was the base grade in the contracts with premiums paid for higher quality/protein - actual grade shipped was at sellers option). Our competition for these sales is hard red winter out of the US.

I would think some of our newer CPS wheats (both red and white) will have a better fit into their noodle markets but I will have to get comments from Tom Halpenny. Another wheat that should have a fit (with market development) is Glenlea as a blending wheat to improve flour quality of some of there domestic wheats.

I was at Grain World when the CWB made this comment. It is a potential source of optimism but I would like to see actual comfirmation of some business before I get too excited. Given what likely will be a very small CWB export program next year (reduced acres with spring rains or poor yields with no rain), I suspect Canada would only be a small participant in this business but that has yet to be seen.

[countryguy]

I'm with Adam.CWRS is out the window!!I 'm sick of growing a breakeven crop and waiting in 3 hour lineups all winter to unload a worthless crop at the elevator.We are in an area that cannot grow high protein wheat so we are now going for volume in the feed wheat markets.My wheat acres are going into a high yielding American feed wheat.

[rain]

Not sure about the seed cleaning plant but here is my spin
Durum up 6%, HRSW up 9%, CPSR up 2%, Feed barley down 13%, Malt barley 2 row down 4%,
Summer fallow up 4% Peas down 5%

Red Deer South

rain

[cowman]

Summer fallow up 4%? How far south of Red Deer are you? I think I saw two small fields of summerfallow in the whole county of Red Deer last summer.

[rain]

I hear you but a % is a %.

I am of the opinion while crop insurance will sway seeding some what, producers from Letbridge to Calgary accross to Saskatoon and down to Regina will seed for drought tolerence not crop insurance. Write these numbers down and check them in a couple of months to see what happens.