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World Malt Barley Supplies Tight

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    World Malt Barley Supplies Tight

    Will start with my standard question - is anyone getting any quotes on the CWB malt barley cash plus program.

    From today's emalt.

    begin quote

    " EU: Malting barley supply to be tight even if harvest results turn out better than expected
    Total malting barley surplus in 2011/12 is forecast to reach 1.9 mln tonnes whereas import needs are expected to amount to 2.5 mln tonnes, an analysts’ note said earlier this month.

    Of the main malting barley producing nations in the EU, France may have 500 thousand tonnes available for export next year (though some analysts make even less optimistic forecasts), Denmark 900 thousand tonnes, Sweden 250 thousand, Spain and Southeast Europe may export 100 thousand tonnes each. The UK and Ireland are expected to have an equal S/D balance, analysts said.

    Belgium is forecast to import 950 thousand tonnes of malting barley in 2011/12, Germany 900 thousand tonnes and the Netherlands 300 thousand. The Mediterranean nations may need 200 thousand tonnes and Poland 150 thousand, it is forecast.

    Even allowing for any errors or a good finish of the harvest season, it looks like a dangerous supply situation for the European malting and brewing industry, analysts said."

    end quote

    #2
    For what it is worth, current European 2 row malt prices (old and new crop) are about USD $370/tonne.

    Montana malt barley prices (2 row) are about USD $12 per CWT or $264.tonne or $5.75/bu.

    Comment


      #3
      From AU:

      EU MALT BARLEY IN TROUBLE
      May saw sharply rising malt barley
      prices as contracts were washed out.
      In typical fashion, once that activity had
      passed through the market, prices eased
      in the first half of June according to
      Toepfer International this week. Demand
      from the malt industry has also been slow,
      allowing prices to pull back as well.
      There are expected to be losses of
      malting barley from France and the UK
      because of their droughts. The winter
      barley harvest has begun in south west
      France, but the current heavy rains have
      disrupted this, and quality is not good.

      CHINESE TARGET AUST MALT BUT..
      Chinese buyers are reported to be
      buying (or trying to buy) malt barley from
      Australia, but they are compromising on
      quality. That will not help malting barley
      prices for us but will continue to see an
      outlet for lower grades and less popular
      varieties at prices slightly above feed
      barley prices. They cannot get product
      out of the EU because of high international
      prices there, and the strong euro.

      MALTING BARLEY OUTLOOK POSITIVE
      If we are ever going to have a year
      when the international market supports
      malting barley prices then this should
      be it. Production and availability of
      exportable supplies, will be down in
      Europe and North America. That leaves
      Australia as a more likely source. This
      should support both the domestic based
      malting businesses (largely run by Viterra
      and GrainCorp these days), and the export
      trade (bulk and container).
      We should see this come through to the
      grower level in two ways
      1. The base price for malting barley should
      be good, and we can probably gauge
      that relative to APW wheat. For example,
      at the moment new season malting
      barley prices are on $308/t compared to
      $262/t for wheat in the export dominant
      South Australian grain market. This is a
      $46/t premium for malting barley, when
      the average premium is zero.
      2. The premium over feed barley should be above average as
      well. With feed barley priced at $223/t, the premium is currently
      $85/t, compared to an average closer to $40/t.

      PLAN BARLEY HARVEST NOW
      Expect the seasonal pricing pattern for malting barley
      to hold. In other words expect that you will get the best
      value for your malting barley during the harvest period ie
      Mid November to Mid January. Strategically don’t plan on
      forward pricing malting barley, and don’t plan on storing for
      sale post harvest.
      High premiums for malting barley will retain the incentive
      for Chinese importers to keep going for lower quality, cheaper
      grades that can be malted. For Australian growers, that means
      we can expect to see the ongoing proliferation of “off grade”
      malting segregations to capture grain that does not quite make
      Malt 1. Prices should be midway between feed and malt, which
      could be $40/t over feed.
      But, expect the premium prices for these off types to be available
      short term, during the harvest period, and probably only
      emerging well into harvest. Think about harvest logistics. If you
      just miss the malt grade, early in the harvest before segregations
      are set up, take that barley home and store on farm. Don’t allow
      it to go to the feed bin at your local silo. Once segregations are
      set up for off malt types, deliver and sell that grain.
      Western Australian growers should find that competition
      between the local maltsters and exporters picks up this year,
      after local malting operations were wound back with last year’s
      drought. However, if drought kicks back in, in the Kwinana zone
      in particular, it might keep local demand down for a second year in a row.

      28 June 2011 www.profarmer.com.au

      I would recommend this news letter to anyone who wants a rational view of grain markets... from a totally different point of view!!

      TJ

      Comment


        #4
        Charlie,

        AND we wonder why the CWB gets such horrible returns on Malt?

        Chinese sales... good quality for bad price... on a big chunk of CWB business.

        When will we learn?

        Comment


          #5
          Feed barley pool B worth more than 6 row malt???????? Only in Canada with the CWB

          Comment


            #6
            How about 2 row select worth a buck and a half less a bushel than feed barley in the OPEN AND FREE MARKET Get those pink slips ready MR RITZ i want to personally hand them out at the CWB head office and maybe I could get a free ride on a CWB account to hand out slips at their corp offices overseas...also.

            Comment


              #7
              CHARLIE i SEE THE CWB IS SQUALKING ABOUT MALT...

              On the radio today... the CWB marketing specialist was explaining to us how China had discovered lower quality Australian Malt... and the point was to inform us that someone else was subsituting our sales... for lower value AU MALT barley.

              So... the 'single desk' has what market power...??? ZERO. In fact China know exactly how to get the maximum discount out of the 'single desk'... they are masters... much better at getting discounts.... than the CWB will ever be at getting premiums!

              Comment


                #8
                Waiting to see where the new enzymes that replace malt are going. Very interesting developments in that field.

                Comment

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