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US wheat exports predicted to drop

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    #1

    US wheat exports predicted to drop

    In another thread Tom insinuagtes the CWB is to blame for dropping Canadian Wheat production. Well in the open market US wheat production has dropped by roughly same percentages.

    USDA numbers show wheat receipts fell from 20% of US field crops in early 80's to 11% in early 2000's.

    Wheat plantings in ND has dropped 19 percent in 5 years and Kansas (the wheat state) has seen wheat acres drop 29% in last 10 years!

    Furthermore USDA ERS says US share of world exports could drop from the 24% average from 2001-09 to 16% by 2019 due to expansion of wheat growing in Russian and 3rd world. They also predict Canada, Europe, and Argentina will also lose market share.

    The fact is farmers in the US can make more money growing corn and soybeans instead of wheat; just as canola is a more profitable crop here.

    By getting rid of CWB we will remove a major marketer of Canadian wheat in a very competitive market. When market share is falling, reducing the investment in marketing of the product seems foolhardy.
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    #2
    DML,

    Corn and Beans are more profitable?

    Canola as well?

    Why?

    When I was offered over $20/bu. for wheat.. and the CWB Chairman RItter said NO I couldn't supply the wheat market... that this was the least of their problems... (we were in hock for over half a billion $$$ short margin calls)... grain co's laughing all the way to the bank because the CWB got cornered...they took our money and we paid for the past 3 years...

    And I am to blame... because you don't like the truth... that folks in Winnepeg are not what they claim... that the grain co's have done very very well on the back of the CWB... while we growers do the heavy lifting...

    We (if we get enough heat) can grow nice wheat. We can't grow soybeans. Canola on Canola leads to agronomic disasters. Corn Grain production is not for northern AB or SK.

    So... we need to supply premium quality... at profitable prices... that provide value for everyone.

    Why should a guy in Winnepeg... sitting at a desk... with a jaw breaking monopoly... get to steal our families wheat... and give it away at less than market value...?

    Because you think it is best?

    Why should you be entitled to make the call... to strip value away from our farm???

    Give them your wheat. PLEASE.

    TAKE the CWB Monopoly GUN away. I hate target practice!

    Comment

      #3
      You have to ask why corn, beans, and canola are more profitable?
      Simple - demand! Having no CWB will not increase world demand for wheat; just competition between growers for the right to sell to that demand. And there are lots of farmers in the world who grow wheat and can move wheat to market for less than what we can in Canada because of distance, labor, and production costs.

      Comment

        #4
        "And there are lots of farmers in the world who grow wheat and can move wheat to market for less than what we can in Canada because of distance, labor, and production costs"
        So how can the CWB possibly be earning Western Canadian farmers a premium. Lets have the opportunity to let a US marketer; or a grain company operating in Canada provide some competition.
        There is a price discrepency in durum right now; and it will only widen for the next year.
        Shades of 2008 again. And Vader aka Rod Flaman can explain it again. You thieves and hypocrites; how can you live with your arrogance and foul play.

        Comment

          #5
          Why are wheat acres increasing in Ontario?

          I'm pretty sure that is good corn & bean country also.

          Comment

            #6
            begood,

            Well said... DML has explained the CWB paradox... subsitution prevents the 'single desk' from working.

            CD Howe said it a little differently... but truly 4 percent of world wheat production... and 14 percent of export traded volume... with our record of mediocre logistics... provides returns that match our performance. If we won't provide increasing supplies... why wouldn't food industries subsitute other produce? Isn't that the logical solution?

            Comment

              #7
              Silver,

              Have DML Slap a hefty buyback on all Ontario human consumption wheat... that would fix the problem!

              Then the Americans...

              Then the Russians...

              Then the Aussies...

              Then the FSU growers...

              Then Pakistan...

              Then India...

              THen China....

              Perhaps then we should b0900000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 009f0r-----extract a premium...as if it were all belonging ... to the CWB!

              Comment

                #8
                The real reason wheat acerage is
                dropping world wide

                www.biofortified.org

                Note the comments on the CWB's influence
                in killing GMO wheat

                Until recently it was real tough to make
                money growing wheat. It was strictly
                rotational. The Monopoly masked what
                profit might have been made.

                Comment

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