How Do You Stay Informed About the Market?

[charliep]

How do you stay informed about the market in busy periods?

My process is below:

1) I get several newsletters from authors I trust and understand their approach. My first 15 minutes to half an hour is reading these newsletter to stay informed and look for things that may be changing/impact price outlook.

2) I am a believer in looking at charts with the idea of watching for major trend breaking points in price trends. When there is a major change in trend, I do more research on what is causing, impact and actions. Not a good technical analyst but I do follow.

3) I have good sources of information on cash markets. Staying informed and knowing which companies have the best prices and who has the worst.

4) Good contacts. Not scared to use my phone to find out information. Try to bring my own value to the conversation by sharing information I have. One way conversations/someone who is a tire kicker don't get the attention.

Will note the markets have been volatile over the past couple of months with the trend down in recent days. This will continue into the late summer/fall. An advantage of Agriville is you have eyes and ears all over western Canada to gather and share information with. Agriville is often my first source of information on markets/other topics and I then proceed to do some research/find out the facts.

[Fransisco]

If I don't have time to read all the newsletters at the very least I try to take a quick look at the futures prices and charts.

Used to use the futuresource website for this. They had a really good custom charts section were you could program in a list of what you wanted to watch. But since they've revamped the website its disappeared. So I've switched over to barcharts.com which does something similar.

[ado089]

I keep an eye on the charts using barchart.com. Country Hedging seems to be pretty reliable source for getting the true story out of the U.S.. ADMIS is good for the global view. I also am working on travelling to key ag production areas in the worl so when you hear about issues affecting them you can put them in to perspective and understand their impact. Knowing other people that do this also allows me to get a "boots on the ground" view to compare to what the "reports" are saying. Lastly and most importantly is keeping an eye on weather independant of what the USDA or other government agencies are putting out. Often comparing the actual weather data to what we are being told will reveal an alternate motive, i.e. import/export motives, particularily when it comes to the US and China.

[agstar77]

Ouija board.Just as good as most analysts.

[macdon02]

Using skype on the phone joined with 200 other
marketers. The man posts live feeds off reuters,
stratfor, and couple other subscription services.
It ROCKS!!! you get the interchange among the
members and someone is at the computer
during trading to bounce ideas off of.
Technology is amazing

[Braveheart]

We used to follow fundamentals, s&d tables from USDA and StatsCan. Now we generally watch the trend based on chart activity. We also like to watch local basis levels. We try to keep an eye on the spreads in different futures months as well.

We don't subscribe to any newsletters or analysts. With everything we do we try to keep things as simple as possible. Different opinions tend to cloud judgement.

[cottonpicken]

I listen to Pillpilsner

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

US Wheat associates is very good at reporting the weekly markets:

U.S. Wheat Associates
Weekly Price Report
July 15, 2011

*
Futures prices were higher this week following the release of the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Tuesday. USDA projected 2011/12 US wheat ending stocks at 18.2 MMT, falling below trade expectations of 19.1 MMT. Spillover from strength in corn prices also pushed prices higher. The CBOT September contract gained 43 cents from a week ago, closing at $6.94/bu, while KCBT nearbys gained 37 cents, closing at $7.64/bu. Gains in the HRS contract were limited by improving weather conditions in the US Northern Plains. The MGEX September contract gained six cents from last Friday to close at $8.23/bu. Corn prices were higher this week after USDA projected the US 2011/12 corn ending stocks at 22.1 MMT, below trade estimates of 25.2 MMT. Hot temperatures in the US Corn Belt also supported prices. The CBOT September corn contract gained 59 cents this week, closing at $7.01/bu. Soybean prices were also higher due to spillover from corn and hot weather conditions. The CBOT August soybean contract closed at $13.85/bu, up 39 cents from last week.
*
In its July WASDE report, USDA reduced its 2011/12 global wheat production forecast by 1.9 MMT from last month to 662 MMT. The decrease was primarily due to reduced production estimates for Canada and Ukraine, which fell by 3.5 MMT and 1.0 MMT, respectively, to 21.5 MMT and 18.0 MMT. Projected EU production climbed by 0.6 MMT to 132 MMT and projected US output climbed by 1.3 MMT to 57.3 MMT. USDA also increased the 2011/12 US export outlook, from 28.6 MMT to 31.3 MMT.
*
French analyst Strategie Grains increased its 2011/12 EU soft wheat production outlook. The firm raised its projection from 125.6 MMT last month to 130.2 MMT due to beneficial rainfall received in late June. Projected production for France and Germany, the EU’s top wheat producers, currently stands at 33.5 MMT and 24.5 MMT, respectively.
*
China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center pegged China’ s 2011/12 wheat output at 116.8 MMT this week, up by 1.6 MMT from a year ago. USDA currently projects China’s wheat production at 115.5 MMT.
*
HRS FOB basis for 13.5% and 14.0% protein out of the PNW were both higher this week due to ongoing logistical problems caused by flooding in the Northern Plains. HRS 13.5% basis for nearby delivery was up from $2.40/bu last week to $2.80/bu this week.
*
The ICE Dollar Index climbed sharply higher on Monday, contributing to a 12-cent loss in the CBOT September contract. The dollar fell later in the week, however, and provided support to commodity prices. Overall, the ICE Dollar Index was up only slightly from last week, climbing from 75.17 last week to 75.20 on Friday.
*
Freight rates were lower this week due to weakening demand for iron ore. The Baltic Panamax Index fell from 1,684 last week to 1,578 on Friday. Maritime Research’s Grain Freight Index was also lower, falling from 559.2 last week to 555.9."

For wheat they are hard to beat!

Charts and basis on east and west coast sales.

http://www.uswheat.org/USWPublicDocs.nsf/1cc6230f4c9bb866852576150061f89b/2ba650142a280a02852578ce007559ea/$FILE/PR%20110715.pdf

DTN has good daily info... I have an internet connection

Then there is my Profarmer AU connection... for a 'down under' view of the world... gives perspective! Agriweek, is great.

Cheers!

[checking]

I listen for the increase in traffic whining. The more the noise, the better the farmgate prices. Right now the kid wants to drive the ferrari. I tell him he can do that just as soon as they pave the gravel road into town!

[cottonpicken]

Instead of throwing hacks at me ALL the time,why
don't you try adding something,checking.

[wd40]

Goes to show you that the 2 old principles

What goes around, comes around. &

The chichens ome home to roost, still apply. Tragic

[kato]

A lot of radioactive material has also washed into the ocean, and will surely end up in fish as well. What a mess.

I wonder how many other nuclear plants have been built on fault lines around the world? This won't likely be the last time we see such a disaster.

[wd9]

Grain prices from ACPC via email and their almost realtime quotes on the website on my phone work great. Just sign up for email, free.

[checking]

Here is a quote you can take to the bank. "You might be surprised at how little people actually think about you".

Oops!, that's too much information for your ego, so I'll add that the flag leaf wasn't needed this year to fill the winter wheat.

[TOM4CWB]

Agstar77,

"Ouija board"

Is this a normal 'single desk' marketing tool?

Does explain the pool losses handily!!!

And the CWB buy-back policy and prices as well!