Durum Down in latest July Pool Return Outlook!

[SASKFARMER3]

Ha Durum is down by 22 a tonne in July outlook. Maybe the crystal ball the CWB uses sees something that most don't.
1. Canadian acreage is low low low.
2. ND acreage is Low Low Low.
3. Canada's is late late late.
4. ND wheat tour sees production close to 30 last year was close to 40.HM
5. Why oh why cant we make a buck on Durum.
Answer please.

[silverback]

1)You should just grow a different crop if you don't like the job the sales department does on durum.

2)You are greedy.

Those are the two most probable answers that I believe the board supporters would give you. As for a real answer I would think like you guys said before, they made some low priced sales a long, long, long time ago and now they are pooched.

[TOM4CWB]

Silverback,

You missed the most important reason:

THE CWB is responsible for holding UP the price of milling grade wheat/Durum Globally. I am sure that if you look VERY CLOSELY...we will see just how important the CWB is in world wheat trade as reported below!

No 'Single buying desk' in western Canada... and all milling grade wheat sale values will crater.

Since good HVK CWRS/DNS can subsitute out Durum... out of pasta... this impacts the CWB to a greater degree than at first glance.

After all... we are responsible for 4 percent of global production... that must count!

Harvest and Price Reports - July 29, 2011 USWheat;

Hard Red Winter
The 2011 HRW wheat harvest took a big leap forward in Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota this past week with drier weather and triple digit temperatures. Colorado is winding down quickly now with the only area left harvesting being in the extreme northeast. Nebraska is also winding down with most of the area left to be harvested being in the far west. Wyoming, at 12% harvested, is still well behind the five-year average of over 50% harvested by this date.

Yields have increased as harvest moved north with 45 to 65 bushels per acre now consistently being reported which indicates more favorable growing conditions during key crop development periods, and these favorable growing conditions have positively affected kernel characteristics. Producer and elevator reports are indicating a decrease in test weight and protein, but an increase in thousand kernel weight.

Test weight average dropped slightly this week, but thousand kernel weight average increased by 0.7g to 29.4g. Protein this week decreased from 13.0% to 12.7%. These slight reductions were offset by some very good yields being reported by producers. Many of the good yields being reported were unexpected due to erratic emergence and poor crop development, but favorable spring weather made the difference.

Soft Red Winter
The testing of all soft red winter samples has now been completed. The final 14 samples tested this week resulted in little change to the non-grade factors. The cumulative grade factors did have just a very slight decrease in test weight. Compared to 2010 final results, the non-grade factors are quite similar. The cumulative test weight has increased 0.5 lb/bu over last year while total defects declined from 2.3% to 1.4%.

The samples tested this past week were from western Maryland, northern Ohio and northern Indiana. The test weight in the Maryland samples declined from a 58.8 lb/bu (77.4 kg/hl) average last year to 56.9 lb/bu (74.9 kg/hl) this year. Thousand kernel weight decreased 1 gram, and both showed a decline over the duration of the harvest. The northern Indiana sample average was 2 lb/bu higher in test weight this year, but both the test weight and thousand kernel weight again declined when comparing early and late harvest samples. The average test weight in northern Ohio increased almost 3 lb/bu over last year's average. Protein average has decreased approximately 0.5% this year, and there were instances of <300 results for falling number value from this region.

Hard Red Spring
The HRS harvest will begin in 10-14 days at the earliest with sampling and data to follow shortly thereafter.


Price Report July 29/2011

Highlights:

Futures traded lower this week as favorable weather conditions for row crops weighed on wheat prices. A rally in the dollar late in the week and end-of-the-month profit taking also pressured prices. The CBOT September contract lost 19 cents from a week ago, closing at $6.72/bu, while the KCBT nearby contract lost 13 cents, to $7.67/bu. MGEX futures were also lower, but losses were limited by reported yields from the spring wheat quality tour that fell below trade expectations. The MGEX September contract fell by seven cents, to $8.30/bu. Corn and soybean prices saw sharper declines this week as beneficial rainfall hit the Midwest. The CBOT September corn contract fell by 24 cents, to $6.65/bu. The CBOT August soybean contract was down 32 cents from a week ago, to $13.48/bu.
In its latest market report, the International Grains Council (IGC) increased its 2011/12 global wheat production estimate to 674 MMT, up 8.0 MMT from last month’s projection. The increase was primarily due to better-than-expected yields for the EU, Russia, and US. The IGC raised the EU soft wheat outlook by 4.1 MMT from the previous forecast to 128.9 MMT, while the Russian outlook was raised by 2.0 MMT, to 56.0 MMT. The US crop is currently pegged at 57.0 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from last month. The IGC also made a sharp increase in its 2011/12 global wheat consumption forecast due to greater feed use. The IGC expects 2011/12 wheat consumption to reach 676 MMT, up 6.0 MMT from its previous estimate.
Western Australia’s 2011/12 wheat production could surpass 9.0 MMT, according to trade estimates. Last year, the province’s wheat production reached only 4.7 MMT due to drought conditions. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences currently pegs Western Australia’s wheat production at 8.0 MMT.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced its 2011/12 Argentine wheat planted area forecast from 4.7 million hectares to 4.6 million hectares. Earlier this month, the Exchange had reduced its planted area outlook from 4.95 million hectares due to planting delays caused by increased rainfall.
The Russian Grain Union said this week that it expects Russia’s 2011/12 wheat crop to reach 58.0 MMT, up significantly from last year’s 41.5 MMT. This would also be up from the five-year average of 52.3 MMT, but still below 61.8 MMT produced in 2009/10.
The annual spring wheat crop quality tour took place this week in North Dakota and neighboring states. Tour participants pegged the 2011/12 hard red spring yield at 41.5 bushels per acre (bpa), below both trade expectations of 42.2 bpa and last year’s 46.1 bpa. Durum yields were also lower, with the estimated yield reported at 31.8 bpa, below trade estimates of 38.2 bpa and down sharply from last year’s 42.4 bpa.
PNW FOB basis for HRS was lower this week due to improved logistics and increased farmer selling. HRS 13.5 protein stood at $2.30/bu this week, down from $2.50/bu last week. Basis for HRS 14.0 protein fell from $3.50/bu to $3.20/bu.
The ICE Dollar Index tumbled early in the week, reaching its lowest point since May 4 of this year at 73.47. The dip in the dollar provided support to commodity prices on Monday and Tuesday, but a rally late in the week pressured prices. Overall, the ICE Dollar Index stood at 73.85 on Friday, down from 74.20 a week ago.
The Baltic Panamax Index fell for third consecutive week, falling from 1,535 a week ago to 1,511 on Friday. The Baltic Dry Index fell to a three-month low at 1,264, down from 1,323 last week. Maritime Research’s grain freight index was also down, falling by 7.6 points to its lowest point since March 5, 2011 at 543.8.

Durum:
a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes.
Offers from the Lakes range from $15.65 to $16.19/bu ($575 to $595/MT). Offers from Gulf ports range from $16.74 to $17.28/bu ($615 to $635/MT).

Hard Red Spring:

PNW NS/DNS 14.0 $11.51/bu
Great Lakes NS/DNS 14.0 $10.61/bu

Does anyone have CWB offering prices for July 29th 2011???

[begood]

It happens year after year. Come July and the CWB adjusts durum down. Does it really count that all those previous months they were "projecting/expecting" higher prices than they ended up being?
That is deception at its worst.
C'mon Ritz, do the deed now; if at all.

[begood]

It happens year after year. Come July and the CWB adjusts durum down. Does it really count that all those previous months they were "projecting/expecting" higher prices than they ended up being?
That is deception at its worst.
C'mon Ritz, do the deed now; if at all.

[wilagro]

The GAMBLERS who do the FUTURES trading determine the price of grain in North America and the world. Blaming either Ritz or the CWB for grain prices is counterproductive and ridiculous.

If you "hotshots" want to beat the system, then set up your own trading company and show the world how clever and able you are in maximizing your return on investment. To do otherwise makes you all followers and price takers at the mercy of the grain traders.

[TOM4CWB]

Wilagro,

Please explain to me how the CWB with a puny 4 percent of world wheat production... and probably only 12 percent of world milling wheat trade in 2011-12... is going to push these 'grain traders' into place.

CDNGrowers... seeking out value added alternatives other than using the CWB and their pooled futures fiasco basis system... saying NO to CWB single desk confiscation to discount sell our grain... will put a bottom in this market.

[cottonpicken]

I do have a trading account and i have dwarfed the
the top mutual funds by a factor of 10,level the
damn field,play by the rules,and if i get kicked in
the teeth im not going to cry like a baby.

Even the argument that the board does help the
majority of economically inept producers is
completely counter-intuitive .There are a million
variables in farming-my dad gave me good land-i
got rain this year-etc-etc-you are STEALING an
advantage away from someone who knows what
they are doing.

Want to pool land and equipment?-i don't have a
damn crop but i have a shitload of high quality
durum-GET IT GENIUS?