Current World Feedgrain Prices

[charliep]

Current world corn prices (FOB US Gulf) - USD $300 to $310/tonne.

Feed barley prices (FOB exporter port) - $290 to $300/tonne. All exporters including Black Sea (Russia, Ukraine). Saudi business being done here.

Feed wheat prices - Cheap, cheap, cheap. Black Sea Values - USD $210 to $245/tonne FOB. Other exports - $270 ish offered but business likely $10 plus per tonne lower. CWB has been offering feed wheat at these levels.

I notice Mcfarms comments about feed wheat movement. I know some in this site who were critical of the Aussies for offering feed wheat in the USD $280 to $290 per tonne range over the winter (suggested discounted prices) but have carried feed wheat for an additional 3 to 6 months only to sell for USD $20/tonne cheaper (compounded by the high valued loonie). I know some of the excuse will be logistics but how tough can it be to load unit trains of feed, load boats, return elevator, load another unit train. Frustration!!!

[charliep]

A couple of items from emalt.

A quote:

“Stay committed to your decisions, but stay flexible in your approach.”
Tom Robbins

Article from International Grains Council

World: Barley production forecast to reach 131.5 mln tonnes in 2011-12

The IGC report of June 30 forecasts a global barley production of 131.5 mln tonnes in 2011-12 vs. 124.1 mln tonnes in 2010-11.

The IGC estimates that the carry-over stocks at the end of the grain year 2011-12 will be the smallest since 15 years - 21.3 mln tonnes as compared to 27.5 mln tonnes in 2010-11.

Consumption will increase to 137.8 mln tonnes from 135.2 mln tonnes in 2010-11, the IGC said.

Crops and exports of the EU and Canada will shrink; Russia and the Ukraine will regain a major share of the export market.

Supplies of malting barley will be tight in the Northern Hemisphere; Chinese and other Asian, possibly even African, European and North American industries look with great interest at the prospects of the Australian and Argentinean crops, the IGC experts said.

Feed barley prices are close to the levels of wheat and corn, and malting barley maintains a good premium towards feed wheat and coarse grains.

[charliep]

Doing some research for something else but found Portland prices interesting.

HRW under 11.5 protein (FOB) - USD$255 to $303.

HRW 13 protein USD $338/tonne.

[URL="http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/jo_gr110.txt"]portland prices[/URL]

[ajl]

Big question is what to do with old crop
feed barley if you have storage available.
Best bid southern AB is $204 per MT
currently. With $7 corn around and warm
weather to improve wheat quality you would
think that it would have to go up some
next winter. Sold out on everything else
and no barley currently in the ground.

[charliep]

Hopefully will get others comments. Not likely much downside from current levels
unless Mother Nature delivers an early frost. Still 1 to 2 weeks behind in Northern
Alberta so still need a frost free September.

Will need to watch corn as well. Cattle numbers really diving in the US given the
drought in Texas and neighboring states. Loss of blending credit and impact on
ethanol? US economic challenges and impact fuel consumption? US corn production?
Cheap world feed wheat prices - you do your calculation but international wheat
prices (mid quality) cheaper than US corn.

[charliep]

Indications from my friends Greg Kostal and Mike Jubinville that the CWB has sold a cargo of barley to the Saudi. Prices likely in the USD $290 plus area. Indications are the CWB cash traded the business through the trade directly at about $230/tonne instore (competitive domestic market backed off to the prairies). There is likely about $20 to $30/tonne profit on this trade.

[charliep]

For barley users/livestock feeders, the highlight is the export market could kick in this fall to present barley growers opportunities to sell a smaller crop. Will be interesting how the CWB approaches this both from decision to participate (logistics/priority over wheat) and pricing programs (cash trade from grain companies versus cash offering to farmers versus Early Payment Values).