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Markets... big moves!!!

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    Markets... big moves!!!

    "August 19/11 Highlights:

    Wheat futures traded higher this week following the release of preliminary USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) acreage certification data that indicated a possible reduction in the estimated 2011 U.S. wheat planted area. A weaker dollar and concerns that warm temperatures could reduce this year’s HRS yield also supported prices. MGEX futures led the way this week with the September contract gaining 84 cents to close at $9.45/bu. CBOT and KCBT nearbys were up by 28 cents and 23 cents, respectively, to close at $7.30/bu and $8.19/bu. Both corn and soybean prices climbed higher this week based on FSA data that could lead to a possible reduction in estimated planted acreage. The CBOT September corn contract gained nine cents to close at $7.11/bu, while the nearby soybean contract gained 32 cents, closing at $13.68/bu.
    The USDA Farm Service Agency released preliminary 2011 acreage certification data on Monday. Based on the data, analysts suggest that 2011 total US wheat acreage could fall by 400,000 acres or more in October’s Crop Production Report. The data had a bullish effect on wheat prices, especially in MGEX futures, which gained 23 cents on Tuesday and another 20 cents on Wednesday.
    The German Farm Cooperatives Association reduced its 2011/12 German wheat production forecast this week due to recent rains that have damaged crops. The association pegged Germany’s wheat output at 22.0 MMT, down from 22.8 MMT last month and down from 2010/11 production of 24.1 MMT.
    Argentina’s Agriculture Ministry lowered its 2011/12 Argentine wheat planted area outlook this week from 4.7 million hectares last month to 4.5 million hectares as recent rains have delayed planting progress. If realized, Argentina’s planted area would be nearly three percent greater than 2010/11 planted area.
    HRS protein spreads continue to narrow due to higher expected protein in the 2011/12 HRS crop and limited export demand for 14 percent protein. The spread between Gulf HRS 13.5 and 14.0 percent protein narrowed by 20 cents this week with 14.0 percent protein at a $0.30/bu premium to 13.5 percent, compared to $0.50/bu last week.
    The ICE Dollar Index was down this week following a sharp drop in the dollar on Monday. The index stood at 74.00 on Friday, down from 74.60 a week ago.
    The Baltic Panamax Index reached a ten-week high as increased Chinese demand for iron ore supported prices this week. The index stood at 1,609 on Friday, up from 1,520 a week ago."

    I note the changes in wheat protein spreads.

    "The spread between Gulf HRS 13.5 and 14.0 percent protein narrowed by 20 cents this week with 14.0 percent protein at a $0.30/bu premium to 13.5 percent, compared to $0.50/bu last week."


    The CWB is crazy to us initial pool prices to determine protein spreads. This whole PPO system is a bad joke.

    It is LONG overdue to match our (CDN13.5=US14)protein equal measuring values with world recognised US base measurments and have one standard.

    #2
    Dear Charlie,

    I note on page 3 of the August 19 price report:
    http://www.uswheat.org/USWPublicDocs.nsf/1cc6230f4c9bb866852576150061f89b/c655c1fdb3b46142852578f10072a097/$FILE/PR%20110819.pdf

    PNW 14px NS/DNS is worth $11.55.

    This is worth about $11.40/bu for #2CWRS 13.5 for CDN wheat.

    Page 3 indicated that the PNW basis is about $2/bu OVER the MGE futures.

    Why on earth is the CWB negative or under the futures 20 cents/bu???

    I also note PNW HRS prices are about $100/t above last years values at this time!

    Comment


      #3
      Because the CWB PPO and basis is not a cash price or relationship with
      an actual sale. It is a blend of existing sales and expected sales over an
      entire crop year in a whole bunch of markets in competition with
      multiple exporters/qualities that is calculated by the CWB and not
      subject to any form of competition. You have to overlay this with the
      CWB operations risk managment strategy/plan for the contingency fund.

      Would be curious how many of the people who attended the 7 CWB
      meetings really understood the middle section on setting the stage
      describing how single desk operates. Sales plan. Price differentiation.
      Ocean freight spreads. Pricing pace model. Logistics. I know meetings
      weren't about education but hopefully all farmers have a basic
      knowledge of what occurs in the black box of the pooling system/impact
      on producer payment options.

      On your point about protein spreads, would be interesting to see how
      many farmers understand the process of how they are determined and
      ask questions why real market based spreads are not used in fpc/flexpro
      contracts versus initial payment spreads.

      Comment


        #4
        Sadly Charlie,

        The lack of progress towards a Cash price within PPO contracts... that is NOT distorted... by the pooling system... is (along with the ship purchase) the deciding factor forcing Minister Ritz to end the 'single buying desk' of the CWB (In my estimation).

        There have been far too many crossthreaded ideas... and vodo economic defences to justify the CWB blunders... to ignore.

        Comment

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