Aussies tank the market again!

[hedgehog]

Why cant these guys keep their big mouths shut about "record harvest"?
its a long way from the bin.

[ado089]

The same reason stats can and the USDA can't. Nothing but a bunch of number manipulating bureacrats thinking they're doing the world a favor.

[malleefarmer]

definately not in the bin pointy end of season is next 2 to 3 weeks and not much rain forecast, some forecasters have lowered estimates this week
my self just above average no record

[charliep]

Just a highlight that forecasts are nothing more than an opinion based on a survey or some other tool at a point in time. There market impact can generally be measured in terms of hours if not minutes and not days. The ABARE report is old news and the market has moved on. Will the crop be that big? No idea but that was the news when it was released.

Your challenge to wheat prices is close to record world wheat production (most in the bin) and former Soviet Union countries that have larger wheat/are establishing their presence in the market. Aussies will be increasing their sales activities as will the CWB after awakening from their summer slumber and having access to a much better quality 2011 wheat crop than in 2010.

Sources such as ABARE, USDA and Statistics Canada is only one source of information and made publically available. You might be surprised at how sophisticated some of the grain company crop forecast tools are. In house only by the way so no one else sees. There are no surprises in the grain industry except shocks delivered by Mother Nature and unexpected political/social events.

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.abares.gov.au/media-releases/abares-releases/2011/good-prospects-for-a-large-winter-crop"]ABARE[/URL]

<a href="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=MWZ11">MGE X December Wheat</a>

<a href="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=ZCZ11">CBT Decmber Corn</a>

Where would wheat prices be today if corn wasn't over $7/bu? If Canada didn't have a par value loonie? Similar question if the Aussie dollar was at a more normal relationship the US green back?

[charliep]

ABARES report is worth reading when you have time (full version). Good information on Australia including major growing areas, moisture levels, production prospects, prices, etc.