Marketing Grain Without the CWB

[Burbert]

Tommietoy, read what I sayed, retirement
is around the corner. Nut here yet soos
I'm stickin round fer a while. Don't
git to excited either, cause I'll always
monitor the geniuses on this site and
put in my 2 cents worth. Why you ask?
Cousin I can't stand bullies, fools er
phonys, er politicos wit an agenda!
Nope even as a tired Comedian framer,
yous ain't gettin ridda me. Whinnning
and snivelin has been a way of life fer
to long ta quit now..... To bad though,
hope you don't get to sad, hearin this
upliftin new broadcast........

[chuckChuck]

L Weber. In order to understand all the prices for durum you mentioned we need the price setting structure for each location and for the CWB FPC and asking price. Without some analysis as to what is going on, it is speculative to say that farmers are getting screwed.

In 2007/2008 I believe farmers were pissed off when US durum values hit $20 per bu. for awhile. I think the CWB pool return ending up being $12-13 net back to producers. It turned out the average selling price in the US was around $8-10 a bu. because most of the farmers contracted their durum in the spring at $7.00. ( working from memory here)

In the end the overall returns were better for Canadian farmers. Individuals in the US did better. Those who held on and sold at the peak. Which was very few if the prices rose to $20.

That said, generalized statements are usually not true. In this case the CWB paid off better.

The most important information comes from the actual sales data that Directors see. They are supposed to be getting sales value comparisons with the competition. In order to know what is going on you need to see the whole picture not just selected pieces with no explanation.

[LWeber]

For 8 years you got sucked in...and it continues today.

What background research did you do to make sure farmers were not getting screwed when you looked at the sales?

Let's recap.

1) CWB employees maintain the actual sales data.

2) CWB employees file the asking price in other regions at the time of their sales.

3) CWB employees determine what premium was realized.

That is akin to doing your own performance appraisals.


The CWB asking price for durum in the St. Lawrence was $16.78 A BUSHEL yesterday. On the date of the last PRO it was $16.09.

The asking price went up $25.35/MT from Aug.25 to Sept. 22.

The PRO went down $6.25/MT from Aug.25 to Sept. 22.

The FPC went down $26.09 during the same period.

Analyze that without kool-aid...

[charliep]

I'll add another question.

Why is a $2/bu discount accept for a fixed price contract relative to
the payment forecast? Where does the $2/bu go?

The CWB could do a cash plus for durum similar to malt barley. They
could do 200 % EPO like they did for feed wheat. They could move to
shorter pooling periods like they did for feed barley. All would
improve price signals and cash flow to farmers while keeping risk to
the overall CWB price pools minimal.

The CWB only seems to be creative on contracts when it has to be.
Why a 200 % EPO in 20010/11 but nothing 2011/12? In the new world
(read open market), the CWB will have to think outside the box in
terms of being competitive and managing its own risk. Competition
will be good for organization.