PLANS FOR NEXT YR?

[bigzee]

Has anyone put much thought into next yr and what they may seed. With rocketing fert prices i personally will be buying earlier than i usually do. Prices are around $60/T higher now than last Dec when i bought. Increases are coming every wk it seems. I have several thoughts about next spring but with higher fert costs it really hard to know what the best idea is to do at this time of the yr. Kind of funny canola prices are about the same as they were a yr ago but fert prices are way up. Must be the "supply demand" excuse.

[Integrity_Farmer]

All you need is a bottle of Jack Daniels.

[JDGreen]

One bottle is for lightweights IF.. Gonna need 2, bare minimum this go round.

[charliep]

Not a trader as such for either futures or financials - a hold and pray would be a
more accurate description. Given my stage in life, I am following the overall
economic situation carefully and recognize the implications of things that are
happening around us that you highlight. Likely everyone else, trying to access
implications and come up with a reasonable investment strategy based on some
assessment of risk/reward or pain/gain if you like better. Trying to find a
balance of investments that are reasonably secure in terms of underlying asset
value, don't have volatility that contributes to my blood pressure and has a
reasonable rate of return via dividends or interest. Not an easy job today. You
gave me a hard time about my investments and I might agree. Sometimes I
think I would be better just to fill a mattress with money (the little I have) and
sleep on it. Participants are lucky to have land as an investment (not talking
about the productive value or the ability to grow crop). Land may go up and
down in value but it will always be a scarce resource.

[countryguy]

Just put the checkbook away for now. Either the price will drop or FNA will work their magic.

[boarderbloke]

Denninger 2011/09/21

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=194590

[Hopperbin]

Well 60 dollars per ton more is not all that bad. My dream is fertilizer falls like glyphosate. Yep that is a dream all right.

[charliep]

Off your original topic but I am following the debate on the cuts to the US farm bill carefully and Obama's proposed cuts.

Specifically to direct payments and crop insurance support/other income programs.

What governments do to get their financial houses in order will have direct impact on farmers around the world.

Easy to deal with these cuts in a year of $7/bu corn and $14/bu beans but will have a greater impact in upcoming years.

[tipsy]

When the pc's introduce changes to the cwb I will be thanking them by producing 2 more 1/4's of red spring wheat. One for Mr Harper and one for Mr. Ritz, thank you very much.

[cottonpicken]

This is looking really,really bad.

Once the dominoes start to tip all hell will break loose.

Watch the big banks in europe and here start to tip over.

[Burbert]

Quitin time is gettin close. Not long
now and you kin take this job and shovel
it. Pensions round the corner, rrsps,
indexing, Fu&* gag. Gonna enjoy wathin
the young whizzbangs doin there tings.
And oh by the way, along the ways, I'm
gonna yap me trap and make it harder and
hard fer Comedian gag businessss ta
exist. Sour g****s you bet, ya ain't
heard anything yet. Go angribusiness
go......

[BreadWinner]

Burburt you are getting closer to the gates of hell
every day, go retire already. You won't make it in
this new Cwb free world. Quit now and go join
the rest of the experts at your local coffee shop.
You would hate to turn a profit on your wheat
then you won't want to retire.

[cottonpicken]

Its looking like game over for europe.

Greece is small potatoes for the eurozone and its
default is looking like a 100% guarantee according
to its bond market.

The implications go like this-greek defaults and the
banks that have exposure have to do a write
down,but they have already leveraged the
investment so they are instantly insolvent-people
who are aware of this will instantly overnight move
there capital out of the bank,aka bankrun.There are
rumours going around that this has started.

The big one is bnp of france,frances largest bank.

Theoretically the ecb can step in to provide
liquidity,no matter how many germans squeal, but
bnp is also has counter party risks who have to
absorb rightdowns,like morgan stanley who has a
huge risk exposure to french banks.

Now remember greece is small
potatoes,spain,italy,portugal are many times larger
in scope.

This is the derivative time bomb domino effect
nobody wants but cant be stopped.

[mustardman]

Paid $494 for last year fert and now $676, $182 a tonne higher. If this market totally collapes like 08 then along with grain prices fert will drop too. I'm thinking on waiting and see

[cottonpicken]

I cant remember bugging you about your specific
investments,i only remember attacking broad asset
class's,if it wasn't that i'm sorry.

And trust me i took as bad or worse of a likin today
as anyone else.

I had a 1.5 hour window after fomc speech and i
failed to act,could have followed king fox sprott out
of the chicken coop and come back the next night
for more but i got greedy and farmer boggis shot
my tail off.

Someday i'll learn.