CWRS Basis Dec 11 ($42.61)!!!? Missing $100/t?

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

How did the CWB come up with this CWRS basis of NEGATIVE $42.61/t??? How is this possible???

1CWRS 13.5 CWB offer Sept 30/11 = $302.27/t We are $100/t below market price!!! WHY???

Background:

US PNW DNS14 prices are $10.92/buUS $401/t to $397/t 2011/12 to July 12 prices.

Durum: a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes.
Offers from the Lakes range from $14.15 to $14.42/bu ($520 to $530/MT). Offers from Gulf ports range from $14.97 to $15.24/bu ($550 to $560/MT).

http://www.uswheat.org/reports/prices/doc/B59C64C766C60C258525791B00766D59?OpenDocument#

[crusher]

Haven't seen Ron post lately so I'll fill in.

Screw the CWB.

[TOM4CWB]

Crusher,

Are you finished harvest?

[wd9]

What a naysayer.

[crusher]

300 acres cps, by star. How are you making out? Invigor turned out alright, except for the cleavers. Wheat mostly average.

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Crusher,

110ac CPS on Bob's!

Did buyback costs:

1CWRS13.5 $367.59
2CWRS13.5 $366.49
3CWRS13.5 $312.88
CDN FD $237.79

CWB prices today:

Discount $30.71/t from 319/t for 1CWRS13.5px or a little better flat price of $303.08 Port Price Vancouver

[crusher]

Have you guys demoed the new deere? Stepping up to the plate or buying new old stock?

[sumdumguy]

Hope you are wrong, never know, look at
American dollar. I've learned one thing. When you
think you have got it figured out, some crazy twist
is thrown in.

These banks have got to be making a s--- load
of money. Thay have all savers giving it to them
for free.

[TOM4CWB]

Crusher,

Bought Greg P.'s old 04 9760. Worked very well! We have the people... so 3 machines much more Capacity and cheaper than new iron (say 2 machines) with way less capacity!

9760 way better on fuel (20percent)for Canola/ac.

[SASKFARMER3]

A friend with lots of Term Deposits and I were talking yesterday about where to have money. He had 200000 that was up to reinvest and best he could get was 2% from Western bank. I said the stock market is tanked so bad in two weeks if he waited a few more days and bought in probably would make 13%. But then if banks go broke hes out the 200000. And if banks go broke guess what the stocks and companies go broke.
Funny no clear winner in down turn. Buying land as an investment is out since $1600 plus a acre is the new deal. Sure makes the purchases I did look good now. But if you sell and pay tax and the banks crash you have nothing. Tough call. Very strange times.

[SASKFARMER3]

The new S680 and S690 are nice we had each for a day. Getting prices now on three. Have buyers for our three 9770s.
Dealer is problem he is allocated only 64 or 68 new machines. Not sure what Deere is doing. So haven't got price yet.

[furrowtickler]

Back to tin cans in the back yard....

[crusher]

Tom,

I see a 50 cent inverse in Dec to Mar minnie wheat. Can a guy role his locked in dec futures to try and get to March and hopefully a reasonable basis? Late at night and not thinking straight.

[charliep]

I suspect the CWB will make you eat the inverse if try to roll it. If you look at
the way the FPC operates, all months are relatived to a standard contract price
(or perhaps better locked in total payments). Basis is what makes the
adjustment to relate to a specific futures contract price - backwards I know
but_____. I guess relates to the CWB philosophy of all things average.

No advice on whether to roll. Still can't forecast CWB basis although currently
on the historically wide side for December. Will it narrow? Good question. No
answer. Risk it will get wider? I suspect minimal but have been wrong many
times before.

Could wait for the December/March spread to narrow before rolling but that
may not accomplish what you want on the price side.

Not close enough to the market these days (too many other things going on)
but any explanation of the inverse in MGEX wheat? Have trouble with this fact
at the end of the North American spring wheat harvest.