CWB Dec. Minni Position Disaster

[TOM4CWB]

Dear John, Charlie et al.;

With the CWB action to $64/t negative on the Dec 11 Minni/CWRS prices... one can NOT help but notice the CWB MUST be caught SHORT!!!

What other possible explanation could there be???

Someone just made a cool bundle of cash... and it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out who paid the price!!!

Western Canadian 'designated area' 'single desk' grain growers!!!

The intrinsic intangible 'benefits' of the CWB monopoly at work.

Where the LOWEST price is the LAW...

WHAT a disaster.

[wilagro]

CONJECTURE AGAIN eh Tom?

You don't know the facts so who gets blamed but the CWB...that is ridiculous.

[checking]

Wilagro.

What is your reasoned explanation for the negative $64.00/tonne?

[furrowtickler]

Had to laugh charlie, his CWB flag is blinding his already poor vision of life.

[furrowtickler]

So willy, whats the facts???

[wilagro]

furrowtickler: It's not my field of expertise...but I certainly wouldn't blindly blame the CWB for everything under the sun. There are people making ten times what I make that could analyze the situation for you. Of course you could use your trusty computer and pinpoint the problem in minutes if you chose to do so...right?

[bucket]

wilagro

Why don't you phone 1 800 275 4292 and ask them if they got caught short on wheat on MGEX. They should answer all your questions as they are a farmer owned and run business according to Allen Oberg.

I did that a couple of years ago when wheat went through the roof and we got sweet **** all for our grain. A few months later it was revealed the cwb had lost 250 million dollars in discretionary trading losses.

I can understand these guys suspicions and you ought to as well. Not because they don't like the cwb, but because it has happened before.

[ado089]

Not that I'm a CWB defender but I would say the the stupid wide DEC basis has something to do with the stupid big inversion in the wheat market. I'm hearing U.S. buyers are no longer buying off the DEC contract either.

[jdepape]

The Dec/Mar Minnie wheat is inverted about 50
cents.  This, in of itself, is not an indication that
the Dec is being squeezed or that someone is
caught short.  All the spreads are inverted which
simply says the pipeline is tight - which we all
knew.

Cash mkts in Mpls are under the Dec.  Street
prices in ND elevators are 20 over the March -
which makes them below the Dec.  Hedging
under the Mar in Oct suggests an aversion to the
Dec - probably with expectation of it departing
from cash mkts.  Suggests cash is tight enough
that there could be a "technical squeeze" which
means no one is taking a real run at the market
trying to throttle it - more like a "hug" than a
"squeeze".

But if the CWB is short they may be caught short
in a futures position that no longer is a good
hedge.

[bucket]

jdepape

Does the cwb have the grain to fill their boats or contracts??

If the 20 percent of farmers who grow 80 percent of the grain decide not to support the cwb and hold their grain, how does the cwb fill their contracts???

[kryger]

They would have to go to a GDC, and of course, with a decent price attached. That will hurt the pool, but who cares about the pool. We might get to a realistic street price yet.

[Hopperbin]

Are we not 2 dollars pe bushel under priced right now? Don't sell short guys. We finally have some power.

[Hopperbin]

2 dollars per bushel actually builds a 30,000 bushel bin completely built with air, moisure and temp. monitors, cleanout.