Barley Supplies Remain Tight

[MLamirandeRM]

The cash feed barley market is currently seeing good underlying price support, particularly where supplies are tightest on the eastern side of the Canadian Prairie region. Canadian barely supplies are expected to tighten considerably this year given another small crop in 2011. The crop used to consistently occupy 11-13 million acres of Prairie farmland in the 1990s and early 2000s, but has fallen to below 7 million planted acres over the last 2 years.

[charliep]

Agree with the tightness (particularly east side of the prairies). Wheat quality is good for the most part and will limit feed wheat use. Offsetting to some extent how is the buck a bushel decline in US corn prices and a 15 to 20 % decline in western Canadian livestock numbers.

The demand side is where we will have to watch. How many livestock fed out western Canada? Impact of the on going drought in Oklahoma/Texas? Size of the CWB/grain company malt barley export program (in the current environment - petal to the metal/delivery opportunities based on price signals or full brakes on/do nothing)?

[ProFarmer]

The law of supply and demand will produce more in 2012 only if the market is willing to step up and pay for it. Our good ol CWB is intent on giving it away so import corn and put barley producers out of bussiness.

[charliep]

Interesting tidbit from emalt. Barley acres are going down in the Dakotas as well reflecting better returns other crops and impact fusarium.

USA: Idaho surpasses North Dakota as nation’s leader in barley production
North Dakota' role in leading the nation in barley production has been snatched away by Idaho this year and the contest wasn't even close, Farm & Ranch Guide reported on October, 21.

The USDA' National Ag Statistics Service Annual Small Grains Summary that was released Sept. 30 shows total barley production in North Dakota at 16.45 million bushels, a distant third place behind Idaho' total of 46.0 million bushels and the 31.0 million bushels grown in Montana.

Nationwide, barley production in 2011 is estimated at 155 million bushels, down 14 percent from 2010 and the lowest crop totals since 1936. This production came from 2.56 million planted acres, which was down 11 percent from 2010 and the lowest on record and harvested acreage totaled 2.24 million acres, down 9 percent from 2010 and the lowest level since 1881.

"The barley acres in North Dakota were definitely hurt by the prevented planting," said Andy Swenson, farm and family resource management specialist with the NDSU Extension Service. "And to get those acres back the prices will need to be high enough to project some competitiveness with the other crops when they work out their crop budgets.