Is the bloom off agriculture!

[SASKFARMER3]

As I'm having breakfast this morning in Calgary,
I'm reading how all over grain prices are set to
drop. USA has weeks to trade soy and corn
before the SA crop arrives. Hrs is down with
Australia starting to ship. Corn seed is in short
supply in SA so they are going wall to wall second
crop corn.
Yet maybe farmers aren't quite on the same page.
Red deer trade show looks like it was a success.
Land rents are through the roof, land values are
climbing.
Fert and seed were told to buy buy buy now.
Funny when demand for oil drops esso doesn't
increase production or when gold or silver
collapses mining company's don't start billion
dollar new projects, yet us farmers are told don't
worry they will buy all you produce so go for
broke.
Maybe it's a coming year to be joe average again.
Because if Italy defaults its bigger than all the
others combined debt.
Food for thought its Monday have a great week.

[bucket]

Are you in Calgary talking to some of those land investment firms?

Maybe it would be a good time to dump the farm at a high price to the investment and wait a year or two and buy it back cheap.

[ajl]

I am thinking that we have seen the highs
in grain pricing for a while. Hopefully
it is not like 2009 when $800/MT urea went
on $4 wheat.

[freewheat]

Man a living, that is depressing. And i was just getting so that with a few more decent crops, I could get a feel for what Joe average would feel like!!!

[bucket]

You guys ever notice that mother nature can be a great equalizer in all this?

I watched guys buy land for an outrageous price this spring and it was 1/3 underwater. Sure they had a good crop but if grain goes down none of it will make sense, then what? They go back to FCC and ask for a write down because that is the way business gets done now?

[wd9]

Shampoo rinse repeat. Be the guy on the take for a few cents on the dollar. Not the guy giving up the initial dollar. Unless of course it never was your dollar in the first place.

[bucket]

wd9

Explain that please.

[SASKFARMER3]

Looking at other investment not land plus wife has
minor surgery this morning.
Never never buy at the top. Seems when others
are running to the ridge go the other way then
when they fall over turn back and take their
buisnesses.

[bucket]

Right SF3.

But the guys going over the top get the last right of refusal when FCC refinances them. As a matter of fact, most will get it written down without the public ever knowing about it. And guys like me that pay reasonable prices and just muddle along get the short end of the stick, while the "**** of the walk" types write their loans down to less than mine.

Not hard to stay in business while being a big shot doing it like that. Meanwhile, because of it I miss out on land that would have worked for my operation at a reasonable price.

I guess it is what you call scruples.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea that partof history will repeat

[highwayman]

Have heard reports of 1 parcel of land in Drinkwater area traded for $2000/acre. Good time to sit on the fence and watch the hogs get slaughtered. For those of us who lived through the late seventies/early eighties its De-Ja-Vu, and we should all remember what happened after that.

[hobbyfrmr]

wd9, I think I know what you are getting at. These are pretty loose details so dont quote me on this. I worked for a farmer who, in the mid '80s (I was 12 years old)paid high for land, bought some modern farming equipment and built a new house on the farm. Then interest went up, grain prices dropped. They called in his loan. He rented it back for 6 years, got 6 crops, never paid full value of rent for the same reasons above, then he bought it back for much lower purchase price and lower interest rates. Can a person still pull this off? Or...now, are there other competitive farmers (with better balance sheet) that will write a cheque and buy this land. I know there was a handfull of guys in the area who did this and it created a lot of resentment by the older, more conservative farmers in the area. This guy is happy and still farming with newer, big equipment, new diesel trucks etc. Alpha Male type stuff!!

[hobbyfrmr]

holy cow I am slow, there was 3 replies by the time I got my question out!!

[wd9]

Yes you are hobby. We see a lot of industries built for full value, they go broke, someone takes the hit, new buyer comes in on cents on the dollar and voila, its profitable. Be the guy that's buying the cents on the dollar.

[grrrr]

Why are people capitalists when they are greedy and grabbing everything in sight and suddenly become socialists when they realize they can't make the payments?