Farm bureau survey

[Hopperbin]

My Kids RESP's that are locked in the mutual funds are still not breaking even, i am supposedly in high gain high risk. 8 years later. Check any stocks for the last 8 years and tell yourself why my mutuals are not performing. i do not knwo what or where my mutuals are invested, they could be invested in a half percent savings for all I know.

[cottonpicken]

NO<NO<NO<NO
wheat prices skyrocketed because the gold standard was abandoned by nixon
which took gold from 35 dollars to over 800,the rest of the commodity
complex HAD to follow,which it did.

People who a thing or two about money put their money into tangibles

When volckner stepped in and said enough is enough i'm going to stop this
train wreck he jacked rates to over 18%.

People who know a thing or two about money piled into bonds.

Inflation was stopped but it almost killed us to take our medicine.

Fast forward to today-rates are being held under by qe.

Nobody is showing up at the bond auctions so the government has too buy
them,aka "monetizing the debt"

There is no point talking about canada we are to small to matter but in a side
note carney and company have no trouble selling our bonds because of our
relative safety...i use relative loosely,we are still screwed.

If you want to take a trip down memory lane and 4 dollar wheat,don't forget
to think about the purchasing power back then

My gold wheat ratio chart shows about a 50 to 1in 1975,which means we
would be around 35 dollars today,soybeans 25 ish to 1.

Will wheat hit 35 dollars?

I quarantee it.

[Hopperbin]

What is the scoop on China lately, they are in a slump apparently only growing at 9.8 pecent per year.

[rockpile]

Hopper, I'd check out the fee structure on your
RESPs. My guess is that they take the cream. You
might even be better off investing in low yielding
guaranteed investments.
Cott - are you saying the laws of supply and
demand don't function and scarcity of resources
don't influence economies. I agree with most of
what you say but call 'bullshit' on the first one. We
had just come through a time period where farmers
had been paid by govt not to grow wheat. I'm not
sure I buy your theory about the gold standard
drives food market values.

[rockpile]

Hopper - something else to consider. You should
be aware of where your MF's are invested and you
do have the power to shuffle the deck chairs from
time to time to manage overall benefits. I guess it
all depends on whether you want to play a good
game or if you want to risk being struck out
because you're always shooting for home runs. I'm
rated a moderate to high risk investor, have
mutuals and others and to date have not lost
anything, nor have I hit any home runs recently. The
best advice I can offer is to have the services of a
good professional in your corner. If you're lucky, it
doesn't even cost much.

[Hopperbin]

Oh **** I Invested in kids RESP's starting 8 years ago cause I wanted high yield. i cannot get out because of a provincial top up clause, otherwise I would self direct. I would lose the provincial grant money if I transfer to self directed. Its only like 1000 dollars but **** .

[cottonpicken]

China-has problems,but long term it looks bright.

Supply and demand are important when everything
is working properly.

But when the number of dollars circulating the
world changes so does the value of goods and
services.

Now we are seeing cost push inflation,which effects
the supply and demand.

It doesn't matter if its pigs or gold,the cost
structure(inflation) effects the pig guys business
model,it costs more to ship,more to cut them
up,more for the concrete,more for the
medicine/labour etc etc,the pig guy goes broke
there are fewer hogs,eventually an equilibrium kicks
in and BOOM hog prices sky rocket.

If it sounds like econ 101 its not.Monetary function
is not discussed.

[Hopperbin]

Rock if your going to consider shuffeling investments why would you be in a mutual fund? Where you do not knoow anything about your investmetn

[cottonpicken]

What mutual funds are you in?

And what are those funds in?

[rockpile]

Hopper, in my MF's I have a breakdown of every
individual investment and a history of their
performance. And I am given options to move out
of the pigs and speculate on better looking choices.
My policy though is never liquidate at a loss, break
even at worst. I never put a dollar in Bre-ex, Nortel,
Rim nor Enron. If it sounds to good to be true - it
is! Your RESPs sound like what I did for my kids
when they were born back in the 70's. There were
no RESPs back then but there were private
foundations who promised you the world. In the
end, we about broke even. As a balance, we bought
CSBs also and that's what paid the schooling. Not a
good option right now.
Cott, not sure who you are asking. I agree with what
you just said but now we're getting into some
serious macro-economics here. 35$ bus. wheat -
never. You overlook the influence of politicians. In
the 70's when inflation took off, commodity prices
took off and food prices grew, the Govt brought in
wage and price controls thanks to Beryl Plumbtree.
And it would happen again, because more eaters
vote than growers. And all politicians are about
getting re-elected. This really happened, and along
with the embargo on Russia over the Afghanistan
invasion (oh the irony), and it really worked. Thanks
for your comments, a day without learning
something new and important is a day completely
wasted.

[LEP]

Cotton we will never wheat will never be $35 per
bushel.

Since the 1920's grain prices have dropped 2 % a
year in real terms. Farmers were able to offset that
by gradually increasing the size of their farm by 2%
or more.

Agriculture is the same as any commodity business
in the world. We have to compete with the lowest
priced seller of wheat in the world.

We may be able to differentiate our wheat from the
Black Sea "fire sale" wheat on gluten quality or
protein but the lowest price sets the base price
from which everyone starts from.

If they ever get their shit together in the baltics,
where they can grow a decent crop and get it to
market in a timely manner we are screwed.

North America isn't even close to the lowest cost
producer.

[cottonpicken]

We'll see.

[farmaholic]

Cottonpicken; How long do you think it will take before we see 35$ wheat? If and when it does get there, I'm sure all those sucking on the Ag tit will take their share as well. Could you imagine what fert will be worth!!

[AllisWD45]

Cotton. If you see 35$ wheat in the future will it not be
all relative . What would a chart for fertilizer to gold
etc tell us. I imagine the same thing?

[cottonpicken]

Excatly the same thing,we are few years away.