durum,stay with pro or take fixed price????

[caseman]

my durum is contracted already because i need the cash flow. pro is 9.00 after deductions and fpc is 7.53 after deductions,diff of 1.47.

if the pros drop a couple more times the fpc mite become attractive.

initial payment of $4ish doesnt cut it and i cant take a 100% epo because it cost $2.00 a bu., unreal!!!

[bucket]

What is unreal is that durum is $11.00 plus dropped in the pit in the US. No waiting for interims, no calls for delivery etc.

And what is more unreal is ****head Oberg is wasting time in court instead of looking at the price differences between the two countries, which is the cwb job.

[Hopperbin]

Tuff call, the CWB is topping up the pool by over 3 bucks for every fixed price contract as a form of self preservation.

Interesting any buyer can go on the cwb website and see what western farmers are recieving for their grain. No one can see what the cwb is selling grain for.
Why does this have to be??? Why not connect us farmers to buyers?

[charliep]

Challenged someone else to an answer with nothing forthcoming so will toss
my two bits.

If you can cash flow it, I would stick with the CWB durum pool. Limited
downside in the durum pool - particularly if a major number of farmers hold
durum into the 2012/13 pooling year. Will be interesting to see the CWB
programs after the changes are announced. They are prepared to and will
compete for business. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and just do it.

[bucket]

Hopper

The cwb asking prices are published daily and I also find what cwrs is selling for in rotterdam twice a week.

This is why I don't understand the cwb support. Currently durum is 15 bucks at Tbay and there is only 5 bucks difference between a feed wheat and #1cwrs 11px. Hard to fathom where all the money is going. Oh and feed wheat at Tbay is 10 bucks. You do the math.

[bucket]

Sorry, that is 5 bucks a tonne between a feed wheat and a #1cwrs 11px.

Now go check the PROs and ask where is the money.

[charliep]

Current Alberta domestic feed wheat prices are around $5/bu delivered elevator and $5.75/bu delivered feed mill. As you indicate, delivered feed mill prices are close to a low protein 2CWRS. The October PRO for an 11.5 % protein 2CWRS is $5.82/tonne (AB average).

Manitoba is even more interesting with current reported feed wheat prices $6.42/bu (link below). That is higher than a 1CWRS 12.5 protein PRO.

[URL="http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/news/markets/grains/pdf/grains_table.pdf"]MDA[/URL]

I think there is real risk the PRO could drop further based on the market in the remainder of the crop year. Also, delivery patterns this year will have a major impact on the pricing pools.

Durum should be firmer but the risk for lower prices exists here as well. Just hate recommending eating the discount - prices have to drop a lot before it pays.

[bucket]

At a million a week or more for advertising charliep, how long to drop over the marketing year?

You do the math. This story has been told before and not that long ago, where durum was higher at the beginning of the crop year and ended up well below cwrs.

[charliep]

Just trying to keep what should be a business decision based on an individual farmers financial needs separated from the political debate. I realize there is a grey area but life continues in spite of confusion.

[mustardman]

Ritz is taking all the money out of Contingency fund to pay for his 'new wheat board'. So won't this have consequences on guys using ppo