Was looking seriously at selling a chunk of Canola for some time now. Hind sight should have sold it couple weeks ago cannot change the past. What triggered my sale today after the close was the Harami(Sell Signal) In the Canola, Soybean Oil and Corn charts, indicating prices ready to resume the downtrend. Also seeing the sell off of our fertilizer companies today still in shock about that, with the world financial unrest what would canola or any other commodity price look like after an 8 percent price decline. Anyways sold a large chunk for 12.66 off the combine so averaging the price is easy to swallow. Could say my sell was panic as I did it at 5pm and did not want to wait till after the open tomorrow, but still happy I have good profit. Delivery over the next 2 weeks is good as I don't like to defer the income this year. Feel will have more tax issues next year, hopefully. :-) I don't intend to be giving financial advice here, I would just like to hear what others are doing with sales.
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Decided to sell off a large chunk of Canola
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I had sold 15 bushels at 14.34 for Nov delivery, but not supposed to go until Dec. 9th now. GRRR...I priced a total production contract for 14 bucks for next year. This is HEAR canola, and it has some perks, but some negatives as well. One more year to see what it can yield on a normal year as I have never grown it on a year like the normal one we will have next year....lol
But 14 bucks is my crop insurance price, guaranteed, and as a young, poor pup, for me i believe it is the proper choice. For others, it may not be worth the yield hit, but again for me it offers a bit of a lowest case scenario or a base to start from. I think I'll do a side by side with some invigor this time. Just to appease my mind. My crop insurance yield coverage between it as an IP canola, and regular canola is only .8 bushels an acre, so it is a decent deal, I think?
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Oh I forgot, i hate to "farm" crop insurance, but as many of you know, we have had a rough few years out here, and it is one way I can kinda get my feet back under me. With a guarantee of 400 gross on my canola acres, I don't have to hold back on inputs so bad. KWIM? One more year!
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Sold my first 8% of new crop for 12. Plan on doing more at that level, too many negative factors to push it higher. Will need South America to have weather issues later, and hopefully the world crisis can get somewhat resolved. U.S. acres will be under the radar trying to secure acres, then we may see a turn up in the market. Dont look at last years prices cuz this yrs will be gone before you blink.
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Easy way to help the decision process. What is the upside and downside to this market. You are taking risks if upside is a dollar and downside is two dollars. Cannot see how the world economy will get itself out of this mess. Customers with no money will pay less, go with less or switch to cheaper options.
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