King

[cottonpicken]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBWiQlS5Qg0

One of the ten best,no doubt.

[Wheatking]

Thanks for the video cotton.
So if the greece and then the other pigs default why do you see grains skyrocketing. I would think that when greece and everyone else in the world defaults we are going to have to take pennys on the dollar in debt write-downs, what will people be able to buy our commodities with if they have no money.

Or are you assuming the gov't of the world will just get the printing presses rolling to pay off their debts with worthless currencies.

Or are you thinking really long term that people will not have the money for fertilizer etc... decreasing the yields and increasing the prices for those that have the ability to feed those that can afford it.

What are you doing or I presume already have done to take evasive action to avoid this coming collapse of Europe, Japan and who knows who's next.

Or maybe its just too late and I am thinking about this too much. I just want to get your and others thoughts on this.

[cottonpicken]

I simply don't know.

I made a mistake believing the eu would print and
recapitalze everything like the us did.

But at this hour that probably wont happen.

Responsible member states are saying no way hose
a.

So many bad things happening at once.

Farming is about as safe as bet as anything else at
this point in time.

[boarderbloke]

I like the sounds of that return $700,000 for every $1000 !

Then where did he put the profit, as he's not leaving it in cash. They would have made billions and if it all went to gold and silver, wouldn't those commodities have risen higher than they have?

[wd9]

So cotton, not only you but i certainly believe the system kinda has to fall apart. But will it? Or will it just keep limping along like it has?

[cottonpicken]

Kyle bought 1 million dollars worth of nickels the
other day-seriously,because there is 6.7 cents
worth of metal in them,he also likes guns and gold
and bought himself a huge texas ranch.He is quite
the character,taking interviewers out in his hum v
and shooting beavers with the latest sniper rifles.

I sent an email to him seeing what the minimum
capital requirements where for his fund and it came
back at 5 million.

It "feels" like the system is at some sort of tipping
point and many,many super smart analysts like
bass,rodgers,turk etc are saying hang on we are in
for a bad ride.

And they all also say this is going to end with a war.

Which freaks me right out.

[LWeber]

ÕâÊǸüºÃµØÔÚÒ»¸öºÍƽµÄ¹·£¬±ÈÒ»¸öÈËÔÚÒ»¸ö»ìÂÒµÄʱÆÚ ¡£

'It's better to be a dog in a peaceful time than be a man in a chaotic period.'

[LWeber]

Doesnt like Chinese ...go figure...

[Wheatking]

That doesn't really make me feel very confident about the future.
I am just going through a few scenarios in my head here.

Scenario one: So when a few countries default on their debt, this will force creditors to take pennies on their dollar, suddenly the creditors collateral disappears not enabling them to lend to any other country. To attract capital to continue functioning countries must increase their interest rates. Most countries are already at their borrowing capacity so the increased rates will make them insolvent. Nobody has any money to buy our grain, so even though it may be in demand people can only afford to pay a fraction of what it is now.

Scenario 2: Instead of borrowing more and more money and raising interest rates the countries just print more of it. This leads to inflation, problem is the governments use that money to pay debts, so the people of the country become poorer(hindering their ability to buy our grain), the creditors will then in effect be forced to take pennies on the dollar making them poorer as well(hindering their ability to buy or goods). To attract money to keep financing their debt(because it can't all be done through printing presses) most if not all countries are going to be forced to raise interest rates, and the govt will not be able to afford to keep consumer interest rates low.

Either way you slice the bread, it does not look good in my opinion. Just the way I am reading it today but it does not look good for ag or anything else for that matter in either case. Even with printing money, the printed money will be tied up paying debts, and the interest rates will be going up. The only solution that i can see that might save the world is if governments wise up and quit spending. This may send the world into a long term recession, but it would be better than an all out catastrophe that is coming down the pipe.

Just trying to go through this all in my head, what are others thoughts on this. I

[mbratrud]

Nervous times ahead for sure. I think as far as Ag goes did we not learn from 2008? If we slip into a Global Recession, first thing to go will be Oil then Ag Commodities. I think the x factor here is War. Likely to fought in the Middle East most likely to throw the first punch is Israel. Then we get back into an energy play. Big questions become where does that lead us, how do China and Russia respond, they probably don't. An argument can be made for both bullish and bearish scenarios. Increasingly looking like the safest place to be is on the side lines. Obviously you don’t get rich on the sidelines. Debt scares me, Banks failing is down right scary and who is immune?

[wd9]

One thing we have learned from wars, a farm is a good place to b producing something of real value. Not so much for plastic surgeons, analysts, or consultants.