free fall on international fertilizer markets continues this week

[SASKFARMER3]

The free fall on international fertilizer markets continues this week, with no signs a bottom is near. Retail costs in the U.S. haven't budged yet, suggesting farmers will need patience – perhaps even stubbornness – to wait for the market to come to them.

Ammonia prices were steady on international markets this week, with values out of the Black Sea unchanged following a break of $125 since October. Weak demand due to uncertainty over both grain prices and financial markets appears to be keeping buyers on the sidelines, with talk plants will keep making product nonetheless – perhaps spurring even further declines.

Forward swaps for winter are running $40 to $50 below the current index price at the Gulf of $590. That suggests about $800 at the farmgate level, but prices out of the Black Sea translate to around $750 – right where current fundamentals put our April forecast. USDA, meanwhile, put the average retail price last week in Illinois at $857, with Iowa at $832.

UAN dropped again at the Gulf this week, with 32% down $27.50 to $295. That translates into a farmgate price of $370 for 30%. USDA put the Illinois price for 28% at $404, while in Iowa 28% was at $441 with 32% at $470.

[furrowtickler]

Explains why the big push at current levels here last week.
Idealy I think we all should have been 100% sold by harvest and wait til march to buy fert - jmo. 20/20 hindsight.

[BreadWinner]

If fertilizer prices compare to pump prices, we will be waiting a long time for this freefall. Most companies have locked in prices just to comfirm delivery for the spring so dont expect them to sell at a loss just to move product. International prices might be dropping but that is next year territory. You are forced to buy it sooner or later, on the bright side it probably shouldnt go up much.

[Hopperbin]

What about the flooded areas? Any fert. deals showing up? Some rumours even would be nice.

[BreadWinner]

Most of the fertizer in the flooded areas was used up last spring, our local elevator was trucking it in from the flooded areas. Those flooded areas will be seeded next spring and that creates a huge logistic problem. I have already heard the if you dont get your sulfer this winter you wont get any. They only make so much and when it runs out you are sol. With lots of canola going in look out. I remember sulfer shortages a few years back and it was the shits, you had to seed somthing that didnt need sulfer till a truck came in then it was gone in a half a day.

[furrowtickler]

Might be a good year to top dress in mid to late June??? We do some every year depending on conditions.

[Jagfarms]

We are really dry in Sw Sask. If we are still dry
at seeding time we will not be applying much
fertilizer at seeding time and will apply liquid
later if the moisture comes.

[SASKFARMER3]

We went into fall wet and were able to sled somewhat. We do the anhydrous thing with starter but seen a program where a guy makes liquid fert. Understand a friend at Gerald does the same.
Might be a good year to put a little down in spring and top dress for lower priced product.
I feel were being gouged right now.

[furrowtickler]

Almost the same song and dance as 2008, "but no way can we lower the fert price we bought and had to store it when prices were high!!" Some were very adament at that time as well that the price would never drop. I am not expecting it to free fall, All we need is for somebody to bring in some cheap over seas fert by mid to late Jan and voila - force the $50/tn drop that should be there now. If no one brings in cheaper stuff than what is here now the prices may only move $10-15/tn

[cottonpicken]

Well if we had a brokerage with critical mass and threw
out a pool bid of 5000 tonnes at 450 a tonne maybe
we could make the price properly re-set.

Oh **** never mind,Tom thought about this before.

[jimbobobaroo]

When I see headlines like this in Good Morning Prairies
I keep thinking we are in for a drop in the not too
distant future.

http://www.agprofessional.com/news/Fertilizer-
prices-continue-to-increase-135322273.html

[jimbobobaroo]

http://www.agprofessional.com/news/Fertilizer-prices-continue-to-increase-135322273.html

[SASKFARMER3]

Just off the phone with Vittera Rep. All fert 11 51 or 20.5 or 46 down and willing to deal on large orders. Anhydrous. Not yet.
Said I would gladly pay last years price if they offered. Also would pay before year end. Waiting.