pork production

[hedgehog]

grassfarmer-- a very valid point.
i am not in favour of all deregulation, but as an outsider, the cwb seems to have grown into a monster.
dairy farmers in scotland have suffered terribly since deregulation.
they were sold out by a handful of judas,s who broke their unity.
but milk is a bit different, you cant store it, and you cant stop it coming from the cow.
the MMb should have continued on a voluntary basis, but political dogma of dereg wouldnt have allowed it.
the same dereg that brought us financial meltdown by the way.

[TOM4CWB]

Grassy,

I think you just fell over the knoll head first for that one!!!

"BTW New Zealand never had a supply managed dairy system - how could they as they export nearly everything? They had a subsidy system - which was abolished by a "left wing" labor Government in favor of "free market" solutions. That'll challenge a few paradigms for you."

Grassy... just Think for a second...

Silver that was really Really clever!!!

DO you think Grassy will see the Irony and connection???

[charliep]

Hedgehog

To answer your question, the situation for the hog
farmer in western Canada will not change all that
much - they already buy feed grain in a deregulated
open market. What will change is price signals from
export sales opportunities and potential to sell
bigger volumes off shore. The end result will be
the need to plan feed purchases (supply and price)
more carefully. Hopefully there is more profitability
in feed grains and grain producers increase
production. Also a shift to more mid quality wheats
based versus growing our high quality milling wheat
(this has yet to be seen). Treat these comments
with caution as grassfarmer has told you these
statements are made on ideology and not analysis
of likely impacts. My words can stand for
themselves.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, wheat prices in Alberta are about $200/tonne, pretty much spot on the CWB total payment forecast for 1/2 CWRS (top end wheat) 11.5 % protein.

For interest, the feed wheat price in Manitoba is $234/tonne, almost equal to our highest quality 1CWRS 13.5 protein wheat (PRO and fixed price).

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

In a demand driven market... exporters will suck up grain much further in advance... plus in season if an opportunity comes along that takes half a million tonnes.... that then means the domestic livestock feeder must step up and buy in supply... or run out of grain.

Kind of opposite to the effect of the CWB 'single desk' had to grain growers... if logistics can handle the movement... the grain will move.

I recall in February 2008 how the good prices for wheat ($20/bu plus)... were offered well into June if we would sign up the tonnes and commit to them.

[grassfarmer]

TOM you give the impresssion that western Canada has been awash with cheap "captive" feed grains due to the CWB. How come we have frequently been importing corn from the US? I guess maybe we didn't have the lowest prices in the world afterall? and the good old USA where everyone likes to quote the higher prices all the time maybe has lower prices at times?

[charliep]

grassfarmer

Why wasn't more feed wheat moving south this past winter in days of plentiful feed wheat supplies, a plugged rail system (particularly on
CP lines), cheap feed wheat in Alberta and Saskatchewan ($5 to $5.50/bu) and corn futures over $7/bu (cash prices also high)?

Know different people who approached the CWB with different packages of buyers in the states and by the time the backback was paid and the costs of the transaction (including risk) were included, the was no margin or negative margin on the sale. Impact was a lot of feed wheat was carried into the summer.

One of the impacts of a door that only opens one way. Corn can come north when warranted but a sticky door when wheat and barley opportunities present themselves moving south.

[TOM4CWB]

grassfarmer,

Study after Study... showed EXACTLY what Charlie just posted.

Why does a cattle rancher seek to protect the CWB so aggesively?

BECAUSE his calves are worth more when feed is less expensive locked in Pro Bono by the CWB.

WHICH is EXACLTY why the C24 Objective was NOT made to maximise grain growers returns. C18 fixes this problem.

Just for you... John Prentice appearing before the Senate on behalf of the CCA in testimony said this:

Mr. Prentice: If you take the November 15th, 1995, remember the United States had a very serious
crop failure, late spring, late seeding, frost, drought, fungus, com borers, and wind, and
the whole works, and they came up drastically short --

Senator Hays: Biblical locusts .-

Mr. Prentice: Locusts, in Africa, yes, but the equivalent. Now, on November the 15th, 1995, the Canadian Wheat Board was pleading with farmers. They had the opportunity to sell to Japan and net back $4.43 a bushel. At that time the local market,
and they used Lacombe in Alberta,
was 3.35, so they could have generated a $1.08 more.

Now, in this new CWB C-4, with their ability to truncate pools and raise initials overnight, they could have taken advantage of that They could have said, okay, here is a one-month window, whatever, and export it. Fair enough.

They do not have to go into the cash market and buy grain, but if they had that power, they would have literally depleted our inventory.

Now, if you take this crop year to the end, what happened in the United States, they basically ran out of com. They were bringing com back up the Mississippi. They were feeding wheat, and they darn near ran out.

We had a carryover, if you look here, of 1.8 million tonnes. That is three days of supply in the United States, and if they would have shipped to Japan, they could not have
taken advantage of that. They could not anyway, because of their de facto feed grain policy of a 2 million tonne carryout. That is a situation, if was a grain farmer, I would have been really mad about it, because they could not take advantage of it.


"they would have literally depleted our inventory." Prentice considered all barley and feed wheat 'His'. Just like you... GRASSFARMER.



EXChairman Oberg had a huge conflict of interest being a cattle farmer.

"They could not anyway, because of their de facto feed grain policy of a 2 million tonne carryout. That is a situation, if was a grain farmer, I would have been really mad about it, because they could not take advantage of it." 'Quote from CCA Prentice'

AND I HAVE BEEN 'REALLY MAD ABOUT IT' Grassy... cause your self serving arrogant attitude is right in line with ExChair Oberg.

You have no right to expropriate my families grain! Buy your own... or grow it yourself!!!

[grassfarmer]

Yada,yada,yada playing the old Alberta whiners "self interest card". Showing it to the wrong player in this case as I don't feed grain and don't sell calves. In fact I try as much as possible to have a system based on grass and devoid of grain, oil or machinery. I don't support grain based beef production.
I don't want or need your grain TOM.

Why does the feedlot sector in AB import US corn when grain prices on the prairies are the lowest in the world according to you?

[blackpowder]

So then what does this have to do with a holistic calf producer?

[TOM4CWB]

Grassfarmer,

Base beef prices that you benchmark sales from are...based on... bingo.

You can fool some of the people some of the time...

Why would you have spent all this time telling and denying our farm the freedom to market our wheat and barley... when you have the freedom yourself to market your beef in an innovative manner;
You insist on denying our farm this same opportunity?

Why does none of this add up grassfarmer???

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie answered that... by the way... when was the last time feedlots imported corn... as if this concerns you anyway... since you don't feed!

If grain is more profitable... your grass land is worth more too grassy. You still win either way.

Cheers!

[grassfarmer]

"Why does none of this add up grassfarmer???"

Because you can't count TOM?

"by the way... when was the last time feedlots imported corn..."

Last winter.

[charliep]

Check your facts. May have been some stuff done in Alberta fall of 2010 based on forward booked stuff but high corn prices put a stop to that quickly last winter.

Some DDG' but limited given availability of cheaper Alberta feed wheat and barley.

I've attached a weekly corn futures chart. Take futures and add 75 cents plus for basis. Imported corn was close to $300/tonne most of last winter.

Manitoba was a different story - better corn basis and tighter feed grain supplies.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=ZCH12&domain=farms&stu dies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W"]Nearby Corn Futures[/URL]

Actually not about whether feed grains are too expensive or too cheap. What it is about is the ability for western Canadian feed grains to price arbitrage with other markets.

Realize this doesn't matter to you grassfarmer. You business model it different. A matter of ideology I guess on your part.