Canola futures

[Hopperbin]

Looks to me like there could be a change in trend. According to any chart I look at, mind you I emotionally want it to go up cause still got some for sale. Any 2nd or 3rd opinions?

[bucket]

Do you remember January/February of 2008???

Sometime, someone going to realize they can't trade based on what statscan says. Maybe they will realize that statscan technically borrows crop from the next year to balance stocks.

How does anyone with the reporting system of crop insurance, seed sales, advance system, etc and statscan can find 750,000 tonnes in June.

I think this years crop is short and has disappeared alot quicker than they realized.

[Hopperbin]

Is there a name for when the next 4 futures months are all equal? March 2 dollars under Jan. Looks like if one wanted to roll futures to the later months one could do it quite cheaply. I think market is telling us they want the canola now.

[Braveheart]

Hopper, I agree. Also basis levels get stronger all the time. I think basis is telling the tale for things to come. Futures just haven't woke up yet to ration supply.

[cottonpicken]

Heading into "backwardation",very bullish.

[furrowtickler]

Last time a big crop was in play basis levels were way over $60. I still believe a large chunk of the crop the past two years is way off grade - 5-25% or more green seed - thus effecting usable supply. Texts from ADM in Lloyd prove that. They are stugling to find enough #1 canola at times.

[furrowtickler]

Canola had a good week so far. Up this pm. Nice to see this time of year hey burbot?

[bucket]

And this kind of analysis from "too stupid to market your grain" farmers.

Its amazing to think that people talk locally and globally on a site like this.

[wilagro]

bucket: Yes, nice to see the "nouveau" open marketers diving right into things they knew little about in the past.

Let's hope they don't fly too close to the sun lest their new waxen wings melt and they plummet to earth with a thud.

[furrowtickler]

Play nice willie, it's a new ball game..

[Hopperbin]

Was hoping not to stoop to the level of the monopoly chat but here goes, facebook the vehicle of free speech has been de faced by the CWB for deleting open speech for not conforming to their logic. Well now CWB claims no responsibility for this.
Who is responsible?

[TOM4CWB]

Wilagro,

In a demand driven market the ICE Canola contract is truly the 'single desk' to watch and sell grain on.

ICE Canola is truly growing into the global window of transparent marketing.

Great to see Basis levels shrink and supplies bid out at higher and higher prices... to ration demand. Something the CWB 'single desk' folks left out of their marketing equation... we need willing buyers... and sellers... for long term stability, consumption, and supplies.

Holding a 'Gun' to anyones head... will NEVER lead to long term stability... a fact which is clearly evident in Canola marketing today!

[ado089]

basis??? market??? What are these crazy words you speak of? How's a simple plowboy like me s'pose to learn big fancy words like those?

[furrowtickler]

Hey addo - do any HRSW yet? I am still waiting for details on Premiums and discounts. $7.15 at P&H with no details, gota phone on that one.

[furrowtickler]

Just phoned - #1 hrsw 13.5 to 13.9 protien. No word on discounts or premiums.