Canola futures

[bucket]

I am going to wait and see what the other players come into the market with.

There is still bunge, conagra, toefler and the evil family run business cargill to come in.

And of course, for some reason the late comers, the new cwb.

[malta]

Canola has not broken it's range yet but is close. As for hrs (August)Dreyfuus is 7.22, Viterra 7.02 richardson 7.12. LD and Vit are 13.5 prot Rich 13. All are around a dollar more than fixed price would have been. I didn't contract any of 2011 so will wait to see Cargill and protien spreads then lock in for August.

[charliep]

Taking off the canola topic but interesting to do the comparison with MGEX. December futures today USD $7.80/bu. Loonie 0 97.4 cent. Converted value - Cdn $8/bu (if my math is right). Your basis is about $1/bu under to give you a sniff at $7/bu. To equate to the old FPC world, your basis at Vancouver would be about 50 cents/bu over futures ($18/tonne is that makes more sense). I am assuming $1.50/bu freight, elevation, cleaning, etc.

[charliep]

Nice to look at a real price including basis versus a futures only contract.

[ado089]

No wheat left. If you want to know what's happening in the states keep an eye on country hedging, they post basis levels FOB Minni at the end of each day for some various protein levels. Your freight deduction to Minni from N.B. will be about the same as the CWB deductions. 14.0 pro is $1.55 over Minni, our wheat should be $8-8.50. The markets are telling us what the USDA isn't.

[cottonpicken]

There are rumours the physical metal market will move
away from the paper market,and that when gold was in
the 1700's large volumes of physical gold delivery
were bringing in a price of 1950$.

I dont think this could happen in grains but anything is
possible in this bizzaro world.

[TOM4CWB]

ado089 Charlie et al.;

I don't get why the CWB Basis on CWRS is so far out of Whack!

It will truly be interesting to see the new CWB basis for 2012-13 on CWRS.

Talking to local grain merchants no canola has been contracted in the past week for fall 2012... as new crop wheat is taking to pressure off Canola sales as John DePape well said would happen.

[crusher]

I sold 10%, I didn't see a break in the trend either. Would like a little pop higher in new crop so I can start selling there too.

[ado089]

I don't get it either, it's almost like for the privelage of using a PPO you get wacked with double the basis.

As far as canola goes it's amazing how a minor weather scare can drive veg oil crops so easy considering a week ago we had more grain out there then we knew what to do with. If you look at front month cash bids we're only down about $1-.70/bu from late winter highs. With low basis levels I say make them sweat.

Does anyone know anyone with boots on the ground in South America right now?