Commodity The Naughty and Nice Performance Lists.

[MoeAgostino]

In the spirit of Christmas, Santa Clause we thought we would send you our commodity naughty and nice list.

The Naughty List - Top 5 Worst Performing Commodities in 2011

COMMODITY YEAR OPEN DEC. 22 CLOSE CHANGE

1. Natural Gas 5.24 3.16 -39.6%

2. Cocoa 3165.00 2221.00 -29.8%

3. Chicago Wheat 8.63 6.21 -28.0%

4. Lumber 318.0 242.20 -23.8%

4. Kansas City Wheat 8.77 6.72 -23.3%


The Nice List - Top 5 Best Performing Commodities in 2011

COMMODITY YEAR OPEN DEC. 22 CLOSE CHANGE

1. Feeder Cattle 127.20 146.87 15.5%

2. Western Barley 190.00 217.00 14.2%

3. Gold 1432.10 1608.00 12.3%

4. Heating Oil 2.63 2.90 10.3%

5. Live Cattle 113.00 123.15 9.0%


Have a great holiday,

Moe Agostino
Senior Marketing Strategist
Farms.com Risk Management

[fjlip]

Merry Christmas to you too Moe.

[sumdumguy]

Thank you Moe. This is good information and I
appreciate your posts.

[TOM4CWB]

US Wheat Associates Reports are very 'Nice' to keep up on wheat markets!
http://www.uswheat.org/reports/prices/doc/24669F96E48591FE8525796E00759997?OpenDocument#


Dec 22/11 Highlights:

All three wheat futures markets gained this week, mostly due to speculators making purchases to cover short positions before the end of the year. Strength in the corn market and outside financial markets also lent support to wheat this week. The CBOT nearby contract lead the way gaining 38 cents to close 6.5 percent higher than last Friday at $6.22/bu. KCBT and MGEX each gained 33 cents to close at $6.72/bu and $8.43/bu, respectively. The CBOT corn contract closed 35 cents higher at $6.18/bu and CBOT soybeans finished the week at $11.71/bu, a 32 cent increase.
Heavy snowstorms hit the U.S. southern plains region on Monday and Tuesday, providing as much as 15 inches of snow to an area that suffered from a yearlong drought in 2011. U.S. HRW production dropped 23 percent in 2011/12 to 21.2 MMT due to the drought conditions, particularly in Texas and Southern Kansas.
The UK wheat harvest produced 15.3 MMT this year according to the British Farm Ministry. A 2 percent increase in planted area combined with a 1 percent increase in yield resulted in the 2.5 percent production increase for 2011/12.
Germany’s winter wheat planted area for the 2012 summer harvest is up 2.0 percent over last year to 3.2 million hectares, according to the national statistics agency. Based on a national acreage survey, the increased area is an early indication that next year’s crop could be larger than this year. The combination of a spring drought and summer rain lowered Germany’s 2011/12 production to 22.8 MMT from 23.6 MMT the previous year. Germany is the EU’s second largest grains producer after France.
India’s Farm Minister said Monday that the country is on pace to produce more wheat in 2011/12 than last year’s record of 85.9 MMT. USDA estimates India’s 2011/12 production will match last year’s 85.9 MMT and that domestic consumption will reach 84.7 MMT.
The Baltic Panamax Index closed lower this week as grain activity dropped down to more typical levels after several weeks of unseasonably high volume. The index closed at 1,676 on Thursday, down from 1,775 last Friday.
The ICE Dollar Index closed the week relatively unchanged at 80.31, down from 80.34 last Friday."

[wilagro]

So every day the wheat farmer should bow his head and pray for some speculator in some dark dingy commodity exchange somewhere in the world to set the price for his/her wheat. Isn't that sweet...the producer can't even set a price for what he produces. How precious is that? Wouldn't it make sense to have a powerful trading agency we controlled to help in establishing a sale price for OUR wheat? Possibly one where all producers would be bound by its rules? No, I guess that wouldn't work...farmers couldn't agree on that approach as they are too independent for that solution...pity.

[FarmRanger]

People who don't understand how a commodity futures market functions should probably refrain from making statements about the role of speculators.

[fjlip]

The Oil Cartel is basically unnecessary. They wanted crude over $30, speculation has it at $100.
If prices are set as in our supply management, the consumers, 98% of the population, are very ticked off with prices.

[wilagro]

FarmRanger: Tell me, what IS the role of speculators? Are they in it for the money or just for the fun? Are the words speculator and gambler interchangeable?

[buzz]

Wilagro,
Wheat and barley were commodities and priced
by the world market, with speculators, under the
cwb, the only thing that is changing is that the
people that grow the wheat can make their own
marketing decisions.

[hobbyfrmr]

Buzz, you forgot to add the fact that when the producer follows through with his contractual obligations and it is a sale outside of Canada, he will not go to jail. Thats the important detail in all of this. Personal property rights and freedoms.

[grassfarmer]

fjlip,
"If prices are set as in our supply management, the consumers, 98% of the population, are very ticked off with prices"
Really? I can't remember ever hearing a consumer complaint issue on the price of milk, eggs or chicken. Certainly nothing that ever made a news headline. If by some chance you guys get the wheat prices you dream of and the price of bread goes through the roof what'll you say then about "ticked off consumers"?
Do you think the average consumer will differentiate between a perceived high price in the store as a result of supply management or as a result of your "marketing freedom"?

[$short]

The markets set the price.

If demand exceeds supply the price goes up.

If supply exceeds demand the price will drop.

This rule works with everything that is bought and sold in the world. It isnt just wheat

[fjlip]

Just going by this thread...
https://www.agriville.com/cgi-bin/forums/viewThread.cgi?1322840947

and link to...
http://freeyourmilk.ca/petition.asp

Reasons for consumer revolt...
http://oldfraser.lexi.net/publications/pps/53/PPS52-milk.pdf

[grassfarmer]

Ah, so it was a few revolting Agriville participants that are out for cheaper milk.
From your 3rd cut'n'paste

"The retail price of milk in Canada has gone from being roughly the same as in the US in 1980 to being 34 percent higher in 1991 and to 6 percent higher in 2000. The major reason for the change is the depreciation of the Canadian dollar."

Oops, guess you maybe can't blame supply management.

You never answered my question about a possible consumer revolt over higher wheat and bread prices.

[checking]

The message to all is that the farmgate raw product price of wheat could double, and double again and it would mean penny increases to shelf food items. Nothing to get too exited about to cause a revolt against that sector.

Stay on that message.