Grain price projections for 2012?

[buzz]

What is everyone thinking about where prices are
going this year. Bullish or bearish?

[fjlip]

If EU gets it's sh*t together and it's dry in some places, bullish due to demand.

[sumdumguy]

My prediction is that lots of acres will get planted
with increase in inputs.

Potential for overproduction weather cooperating.

[buzz]

Good points.
I am neutral right now.
It looks like it is droughty down in South America.
I am concerned about world economic
conditions. It is shaping up to be a year of
uncertainty in my mind.

[SASKFARMER3]

To early to call but with a virtually Brown Christmas in Much of Western Canada. Heat starting up in Brazil and Argentina. (there ahead this year in Crop growth so actually its filling now>).
Dry in USA and who knows. Also Europe has to get their shit together.
I think locking in Wheat now is a mistake unless you can do feed for 7 that way protect your self from problems in Canada in 2012.

[Burbert]

Prices tumble, due to state of flux and
uncertainty. Unfortunately grain
marketeering isn't all that great from
basement. Maybe a sign at the end of
driveway and posters stuck ta utility
post'll create a more stable local
robust market. Maybe framers could sell
grain ta one another, hence creating a
huge entraveinerial complex marketeering
system. Cow guy neighbours are whinning
and snivelling about something, probably
this new phoney Comedian Gag
marketeering system....... Land prices
goin up agin, based on local bs from the
looks of it........

[TOM4CWB]

Buzz,

There have been literally Trillions of $$$ injected into our economy.

Last night comming home we heard how bad all 'investment grade' investments are... with another collapse in the EU comming to light... on top of MF Global... (caused by greek and associated bond melt downs)... How we consider US bonds/treasuries 'secure' was a Huge discussion point.

Ag commodities were considered a high grade investment when compared to everything else folks can put liquid assets into... the Trillions that have been injected makes this even more of a problem!

CASH is a problem... can't eat it... Gold is a problem... can't eat it... bonds are a problem...

You know... 7 billion people... who all are hungry each morning... of which a larger and bigger group will blow us all to kingdom come if we don't provide food...

Wow...

[cottonpicken]

Gold is a problem?

About 6 billion people see it as an exceptable form
of payment for food so yes you can eat it.

There are now more and more rumours the spot
price is now 1900 for large physical purchases
while the paper price is 1600....

As far as technicals in grains we can break our
downtrend right here and now with some days of
solid gains.

[fjlip]

Very solid gains today at CME....Soybean and Corn charts gapped higher and holding gains, 12 Corn, 36 Soybeans.
See what tomorrow brings.

[furrowtickler]

Next 10-20 yrs - Gold, silver, trace minerals, fertile dirt, food and clean water. This is what the world's population will demand IMO.
Grain prices for the most part should hold steady, corn up, soy - canola flat, feed whts down, High protien wht the wild card. All based on "normal" weather/growing conditions for 2012. lol

[TOM4CWB]

This could get crazy...

If oil goes up...grains will follow...
Burbert... Wilagro... sorry...

Oil Caps Longest Advance Since 2010 as Iran Threatens Shipping
December 27, 2011, 3:35 PM EST


By Mark Shenk


Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Oil capped its longest rally in more than a year as Iran threatened to block transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and confidence among U.S. consumers beat expectations in December.

Crude settled at the highest level in six weeks after Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency cited Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi as saying the country would bar shipments through the strait if sanctions are imposed on its oil exports. Futures also rose as the Conference Board’s index reached the highest level since April.

“The Iranian threats are getting increasingly bold,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant. “The threat doesn’t have to be likely to have an impact on the market, because if it were to be carried out it would potentially be huge.”

Oil for February delivery rose $1.66, or 1.7 percent, to $101.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 16. Crude has advanced for six consecutive sessions, the longest rally since a period ended Nov. 8, 2010. Futures have climbed 11 percent this year after increasing 15 percent in 2010.

Brent oil for February settlement gained $1.31, or 1.2 percent, to $109.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European contract’s premium to crude in New York was $7.93 a barrel, the smallest differential based on settlement prices since Jan. 20.

Markets in New York and London were shut yesterday because of the observance of Christmas and will be closed on Jan. 2 for New Year’s Day.

Low Volume

Oil surged on what is one of the year’s slowest trading days. Volume on the Nymex totaled 181,186 contracts as of 2:39 p.m. Volume was 167,547 on Dec. 23, the lowest level since Dec. 26, 2008, and down 73 percent from the average of the past three months. Open interest was 1.31 million contracts.

“A lot of people are on vacation this week,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading advisory company Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. “Volume will remain light until Jan. 3. We can expect to see exaggerated price moves until things pick up next week.”

About 15.5 million barrels of oil a day, or a sixth of global consumption, passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Iran is attempting to “distract attention” from its nuclear program by threatening to block oil shipments through the strait, Mark Toner, a State Department spokesman, said at a briefing today in Washington.

Busy Waterway

Oil increased 2.4 percent in New York on Dec. 13 after Iran announced plans for military exercises in the strait, a critical waterway for crude shipments, as the U.S. and its allies threatened to bolster sanctions because of the Persian Gulf country’s nuclear program.

The Iranian navy started a 10-day exercise east of the passage that involved the use of submarines, ground-to-sea missile systems and torpedoes, Press TV said Dec. 24.

“The tanker market is pretty quiet,” said Basil Karatzas, chief executive officer of New York-based shipbroker Karatzas Marine Advisors. “Iran can only close the strait by force and I don’t think they are ready for a war.”

Iran pumped 3.56 million barrels a day of oil in November, according to Bloomberg News estimates, trailing only Saudi Arabia among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Iran is trying to reduce its dependence on fuel imports as international sanctions over its nuclear program block foreign companies from doing business there.

Iranian Needs

“Iran needs petrodollars and petroleum product imports more than we need its oil,” said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “Blocking the Strait of Hormuz would probably trigger a war not just with our Seventh Fleet but with their Arab neighbors.”

The U.S. consumer confidence measure increased to 64.5 from a revised 55.2 reading in November. It exceeded all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, which had a median estimate of 58.9 based on the responses of 69 economists.

“The consumer confidence numbers are very strong and gave the market a push,” Schork said.

Tensions between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Shiite-led allies and Sunni politicians have intensified since a warrant was issued last week for the arrest of Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni. The case comes amid concern that the pullout of U.S. forces will leave a security vacuum in Iraq, which holds the world’s fifth-largest crude reserves.

Syrian Unrest

Syria began withdrawing troops from the center of Homs as the Arab League deployed observers to monitor unrest that has killed thousands. Violence in other areas of the country left at least 16 people dead early today, mostly in the countryside outside Damascus, said Ammar Qurabi, head of the Syrian National Organization for Human Rights.

“The market is creeping higher amid tension in the Middle East,” said Tom Bentz, a director with BNP Paribas Prime Brokerage Inc. in New York. “We are following news in Iran, Iraq and Syria at the moment. There’s a potential that the situation in one of these countries will worsen.”

--With assistance from Moming Zhou in New York and David Lerman in Washington. Editors: Margot Habiby, Charlotte Porter

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Bill Banker at bbanker@bloomberg.net

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-27/oil-caps-longest-advance-since-2010-as-iran-threatens-shipping.html

[sumdumguy]

Cotton Apmex 1 oz canadian maples price is
1595.60 asking. Trend is down.

[burnt]

Well if Tom's article about the link between oil and ag. commodities holds up, better get your seat belts on. A story in one of the mainstream papers last week spoke of $500/bbl oil if Iran and the US mix it up.

Kinda out there I think, though.

[burnt]

And then there's this opinion -


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/tight-oil-holds-promise-of-ending-us-oil-imports/article2283408/page1/

[cottonpicken]

1oz,is not a large physical purchase.